Peso Calm, Banks Rally: Argentina’s Morning Credibility Trade

Key Points

• The peso is trading in a rare zone of calm: the blue rate is only about 1% above the official window, signaling lower immediate devaluation fear.
• Equities are pricing a credibility upgrade, with banks leading a sharp Merval rally as investors lean into a more orthodox policy path.
• The real stress test sits in the cross-border dollar, where the wider CCL premium shows capital mobility still carries a meaningful risk price.

At 08:03 UTC, USD/ARS (ICE) was near 1,450.50, below the tracked band ceiling at 1,520.03. Banco Nación’s sell rate was 1,475 and the blue dollar sold near 1,490.

Financial rates stayed higher: MEP around 1,499.3 and CCL around 1,546.5, with the wholesale dollar near 1,472. Those spreads are the market’s confidence gauge.

A blue premium that small usually means fewer households are front-running a devaluation. The CCL premium tells a different story. Investors still pay up for portability. They also punish any drift back to discretionary controls or sudden spending shocks.

From Jan. 1, 2026, the FX band will adjust in line with inflation—what Morgan Stanley called “a much awaited adjustment.” The bank also launched a pre-announced reserve accumulation program that JPMorgan described as an “anti-fragile macro setup.”

JPMorgan estimates around $10 billion in net FX purchases could be absorbed without reigniting inflation, with scope toward $17 billion if peso demand strengthens. The central bank expects the monetary base to rise from about 4.2% to 4.8% of GDP by end-2026.

JPMorgan highlighted daily purchases initially capped near 5% of daily FX volume; with average volume recently down from about $600 million to $200 million, that points to $10–$30 million a day.

Fitch’s Todd Martinez said markets will be watching whether reserve gains and market access follow, with rating implications.

The S&P Merval traded near 3,163,224 after opening around 3,035,517 and ranging 3,026,880–3,167,802. Top winners were BBVA Argentina 8.79%, Grupo Supervielle 8.23%, Central Puerto 6.60%, Galicia 6.53%, and Banco Macro 6.39%.

The weakest performers still ended higher: Pampa Energía 0.55%, BYMA 0.85%, Ternium Argentina 1.09%, Telecom Argentina 1.12%, and Transener 1.42%. Argentine ADRs rose as much as 11%.

USD/ARS stayed pinned near 1,450 on both 4-hour and daily views. The Merval’s RSI sat in the high 60s. ARGT flows were mixed: +$7.29 million (5 days) and +$23.29 million (1 month), but -$73.23 million (3 months) and -$270.14 million (6 months).

Dollar index: 98.317. The tape rewards discipline—and punishes any drift back toward improvised controls.