Mexico Markets Hold The 18 Handle After Banxico Cut
Key Points
- USD/MXN is around 18.03 as Banxico cuts to 7.00% and signals a more careful next step.
- The IPC jumped 2.05%, breaking a three-session losing streak as global sentiment improved.
- EWW rose, but recent net fund-flow readings remain negative.
The peso traded near 18.03 per dollar early Friday, steady after Banxico delivered a 25 basis-point cut to 7.00%. The decision was split. Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath voted to hold.
Banxico raised near-term inflation forecasts, pointing to services inflation that is easing slowly. It still projects a return to the 3% target in Q3 2026.
November inflation accelerated to 3.80% year on year, while core inflation rose to 4.43%. The message to markets was restraint: future moves will be paced by data, not politics.
Outside Mexico, the dollar index held in the high-98s, around 98.3. That kept the peso trade about carry and credibility, not panic.
Technicals show a rebound, not a clear reversal. On the daily chart, momentum is still weak (RSI near 36, MACD below zero).
On the 4-hour chart, momentum has improved (RSI mid-50s). The market is watching the 18.00–18.06 band: support near 18.00 and 17.98, resistance near 18.03–18.06, then 18.12–18.20.
Stocks rebounded hard. The S&P/BMV IPC closed at 63,807.32, up 2.05%, after ranging from 62,541.77 to 63,913.56. Total turnover reached 246 million shares for MXN 36.001 billion (about $2.0 billion at 18 per dollar).
Actinver’s Enrique Covarrubias said the move leaves December up about 0.3% and the year up about 28.9%. Banco Base’s Gabriela Siller said the trigger was the U.S. inflation print that lifted global equities.
Top winners: Aeroméxico (+6.37%), Esentia II (+5.69%), Convertidora Industrial (+5.64%), Volaris (+5.16%), GCC (+4.92%).
Top losers: Teak CPO (-9.04%), Controladora Axtel (-3.34%), Nemak (-2.99%), DIABLOI (-1.79%), Actinver B (-1.78%).
Most-traded names were Grupo México B, Banorte O, Walmex, América Móvil B, and FEMSA UBD. Offshore, iShares’ Mexico ETF (EWW) closed at $68.75 on about 904,000 shares, with NAV at $68.74.
ETFdb shows net AUM changes of -$5.45 million over five days and -$139 million over one month, but +$774 million over one year. The market’s warning is simple: credibility is rewarded, and shortcuts rarely are.
Key Facts
— Deep Dive
— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Mexico Economy 2026: GDP, Peso, Nearshoring, Banxico and Trade
Live Market IntelligenceMexico — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Mexico — Live Market Board
-1.09%
188,268.59
+1.42%
64,106.82
-1.09%
11,238.63
-1.16%
3,157,852
+1.53%
2,626.71
+1.65%
60,702.89
-2.19%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPC MEX | 64,106.82 | -1.09% | +12.17% | 64,814.97 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| WALMEX | 48.07 | -0.62% | -14.38% | 48.37 | 48.65 | 48.02 | 10,781,446 |
| GMEXICO | 223.28 | +0.35% | +73.59% | 222.50 | 226.18 | 222.17 | 1,325,556 |
| FEMSA | 201.19 | -0.24% | +25.67% | 201.67 | 206.71 | 199.56 | 750,706 |
| CEMEX | 19.32 | +0.89% | +19.10% | 19.15 | 19.35 | 19.04 | 14,327,054 |
| GFNORTE | 193.98 | +1.18% | +14.36% | 191.71 | 195.79 | 191.83 | 1,579,115 |
| BIMBO | 60.98 | -0.96% | +11.89% | 61.57 | 61.46 | 60.29 | 1,048,115 |
| TELEVISA | 9.71 | +0.21% | +12.78% | 9.69 | 9.75 | 9.60 | 577,851 |
| AMX | 19.80 | -0.95% | +12.53% | 19.99 | 20.05 | 19.70 | 58,058,525 |
| GAP | 366.23 | +0.43% | -21.21% | 364.68 | 370.85 | 362.82 | 226,946 |
| ASUR | 275.04 | +1.25% | -15.28% | 271.64 | 275.08 | 271.31 | 15,451 |
| OMA | 233.50 | +0.62% | -6.48% | 232.06 | 235.00 | 230.62 | 555,693 |
| KOF | 188.04 | +0.86% | +18.94% | 186.44 | 188.56 | 185.52 | 425,273 |
| GRUMA | 252.90 | +0.11% | -21.85% | 252.61 | 254.74 | 250.36 | 90,048 |
| KIMBER | 39.74 | +0.43% | +8.85% | 39.57 | 40.09 | 39.33 | 490,551 |
| AMX ADR | 23.38 | -0.23% | +22.25% | 23.43 | 23.49 | 23.06 | 1,347,445 |
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