Mexico Markets Hold The 18 Handle After Banxico Cut

Key Points

• USD/MXN is around 18.03 as Banxico cuts to 7.00% and signals a more careful next step.
• The IPC jumped 2.05%, breaking a three-session losing streak as global sentiment improved.
• EWW rose, but recent net fund-flow readings remain negative.

The peso traded near 18.03 per dollar early Friday, steady after Banxico delivered a 25 basis-point cut to 7.00%. The decision was split. Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath voted to hold.

Banxico raised near-term inflation forecasts, pointing to services inflation that is easing slowly. It still projects a return to the 3% target in Q3 2026.

November inflation accelerated to 3.80% year on year, while core inflation rose to 4.43%. The message to markets was restraint: future moves will be paced by data, not politics.

Outside Mexico, the dollar index held in the high-98s, around 98.3. That kept the peso trade about carry and credibility, not panic.

Technicals show a rebound, not a clear reversal. On the daily chart, momentum is still weak (RSI near 36, MACD below zero).

On the 4-hour chart, momentum has improved (RSI mid-50s). The market is watching the 18.00–18.06 band: support near 18.00 and 17.98, resistance near 18.03–18.06, then 18.12–18.20.

Stocks rebounded hard. The S&P/BMV IPC closed at 63,807.32, up 2.05%, after ranging from 62,541.77 to 63,913.56. Total turnover reached 246 million shares for MXN 36.001 billion (about $2.0 billion at 18 per dollar).

Actinver’s Enrique Covarrubias said the move leaves December up about 0.3% and the year up about 28.9%. Banco Base’s Gabriela Siller said the trigger was the U.S. inflation print that lifted global equities.

Top winners: Aeroméxico (+6.37%), Esentia II (+5.69%), Convertidora Industrial (+5.64%), Volaris (+5.16%), GCC (+4.92%).

Top losers: Teak CPO (-9.04%), Controladora Axtel (-3.34%), Nemak (-2.99%), DIABLOI (-1.79%), Actinver B (-1.78%).

Most-traded names were Grupo México B, Banorte O, Walmex, América Móvil B, and FEMSA UBD. Offshore, iShares’ Mexico ETF (EWW) closed at $68.75 on about 904,000 shares, with NAV at $68.74.

ETFdb shows net AUM changes of -$5.45 million over five days and -$139 million over one month, but +$774 million over one year. The market’s warning is simple: credibility is rewarded, and shortcuts rarely are.