Mexico Markets Hold The 18 Handle After Banxico Cut
Key Points
- USD/MXN is around 18.03 as Banxico cuts to 7.00% and signals a more careful next step.
- The IPC jumped 2.05%, breaking a three-session losing streak as global sentiment improved.
- EWW rose, but recent net fund-flow readings remain negative.
The peso traded near 18.03 per dollar early Friday, steady after Banxico delivered a 25 basis-point cut to 7.00%. The decision was split. Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath voted to hold.
Banxico raised near-term inflation forecasts, pointing to services inflation that is easing slowly. It still projects a return to the 3% target in Q3 2026.
November inflation accelerated to 3.80% year on year, while core inflation rose to 4.43%. The message to markets was restraint: future moves will be paced by data, not politics.
Outside Mexico, the dollar index held in the high-98s, around 98.3. That kept the peso trade about carry and credibility, not panic.
Technicals show a rebound, not a clear reversal. On the daily chart, momentum is still weak (RSI near 36, MACD below zero).
On the 4-hour chart, momentum has improved (RSI mid-50s). The market is watching the 18.00–18.06 band: support near 18.00 and 17.98, resistance near 18.03–18.06, then 18.12–18.20.
Stocks rebounded hard. The S&P/BMV IPC closed at 63,807.32, up 2.05%, after ranging from 62,541.77 to 63,913.56. Total turnover reached 246 million shares for MXN 36.001 billion (about $2.0 billion at 18 per dollar).
Actinver’s Enrique Covarrubias said the move leaves December up about 0.3% and the year up about 28.9%. Banco Base’s Gabriela Siller said the trigger was the U.S. inflation print that lifted global equities.
Top winners: Aeroméxico (+6.37%), Esentia II (+5.69%), Convertidora Industrial (+5.64%), Volaris (+5.16%), GCC (+4.92%).
Top losers: Teak CPO (-9.04%), Controladora Axtel (-3.34%), Nemak (-2.99%), DIABLOI (-1.79%), Actinver B (-1.78%).
Most-traded names were Grupo México B, Banorte O, Walmex, América Móvil B, and FEMSA UBD. Offshore, iShares’ Mexico ETF (EWW) closed at $68.75 on about 904,000 shares, with NAV at $68.74.
ETFdb shows net AUM changes of -$5.45 million over five days and -$139 million over one month, but +$774 million over one year. The market’s warning is simple: credibility is rewarded, and shortcuts rarely are.
Key Facts
— Deep Dive
Live Market IntelligenceMexico — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Mexico — Live Market Board
-0.58%
176,608.23
-13.88%
69,470.99
-0.58%
10,575.59
-1.59%
2,848,945
—
2,505.04
-1.38%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPC MEX | 69,470.99 | -0.58% | +12.30% | 69,879.62 | — | — | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.60 | +0.13% | +0.98% | 18.57 | 18.60 | 18.54 | — |
| WALMEX | 50.32 | -0.89% | -18.21% | 50.77 | 51.33 | 50.13 | 6,016,744 |
| GMEXICO | 228.21 | +0.00% | +48.00% | 228.20 | 231.88 | 227.09 | 5,815,949 |
| FEMSA | 231.64 | -3.57% | +31.90% | 240.21 | 240.48 | 228.72 | 2,010,615 |
| CEMEX | 18.99 | -0.42% | +10.57% | 19.07 | 19.38 | 18.58 | 24,192,446 |
| GFNORTE | 214.91 | +0.68% | +24.10% | 213.46 | 218.39 | 211.81 | 6,849,514 |
| BIMBO | 63.49 | +1.18% | +1.75% | 62.75 | 64.34 | 61.77 | 3,875,113 |
| TELEVISA | 8.46 | -3.97% | -7.52% | 8.81 | 8.74 | 8.45 | 3,320,885 |
| AMX | 22.47 | -2.09% | +7.85% | 22.95 | 22.88 | 22.11 | 24,219,613 |
| GAP | 416.71 | +0.19% | +4.92% | 415.92 | 423.71 | 405.01 | 705,403 |
| ASUR | 252.11 | +1.51% | -17.34% | 248.37 | 254.01 | 245.33 | 56,695 |
| OMA | 229.08 | -0.04% | -3.10% | 229.18 | 232.30 | 228.01 | 661,081 |
| KOF | 214.73 | -2.51% | +32.46% | 220.25 | 217.11 | 207.24 | 1,334,513 |
| GRUMA | 247.95 | -1.17% | -22.18% | 250.88 | 254.06 | 245.95 | 304,139 |
| KIMBER | 37.66 | -0.53% | +7.61% | 37.86 | 38.31 | 37.65 | 5,163,194 |
| AMX ADR | 24.18 | -1.59% | +6.10% | 24.57 | 24.30 | 23.70 | 4,096,459 |
— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Mexico Economy 2026: GDP, Peso, Nearshoring, Banxico and Trade
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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