Oil Fund Falls 1.95% as Petrobras Plunges 13.99% | Oil, Oct 26
Key Facts
- USO, a US oil fund, fell 1.95% to US$166.23 on Monday, 26 October 2026.
- Petrobras, Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, plunged 13.99% to US$22.50 in New York.
- YPF, Argentina’s state-controlled oil company, fell 2.84% to US$49.24, and Ecopetrol of Colombia fell 2.25% to US$17.40.
- Brazil’s stocks fell 13.88% after Lula’s re-election, which explains Petrobras’s drop.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a prediction market, puts a 45.0% chance on US crude touching US$105 in October, as of 26 October, 8:48 pm ET.
Today’s Focus
Oil funds slipped on Monday, but the biggest story was Petrobras. The Brazilian state-controlled oil company plunged 13.99% to US$22.50 in New York as Brazil’s stock market crashed.
USO, an exchange-traded fund that tracks US crude oil, fell 1.95% to US$166.23. BNO, a fund that tracks Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 1.30% to US$70.07.
YPF of Argentina lost 2.84% to US$49.24, and Ecopetrol of Colombia lost 2.25% to US$17.40. Energy shares in the US held up, with the XLE sector fund up 0.45%.
What matters today. Petrobras fell because Brazil’s election result raised fears about state influence and public spending, while oil itself moved only a little.
01 The session in one read
Oil proxies edged lower on Monday, 26 October 2026, while Brazil’s state oil company fell sharply. Petrobras lost 13.99% to US$22.50 in New York, where its shares trade as ADRs (US-listed share certificates). Its preferred shares, a class with dividend priority, lost 15.43% to US$19.90.
The size of the fall matches the market backdrop. Brazil’s Ibovespa fell 13.88%, and the dollar jumped 8.79% against the real, which cuts the dollar value of Petrobras shares.
We have no verified WTI or Brent settlement for the session, so the board shows fund prices.
The evidence points to Brazil’s political shock as the driver of the Petrobras plunge, with oil itself only modestly lower. The ADR fell more than the local share because the real’s slide also cuts the dollar value. The variable to watch is any signal from the new government on Petrobras’s pricing and dividends.
02 The board
The oil funds fell modestly. USO’s 1.95% drop to US$166.23 was larger than BNO’s 1.30% fall to US$70.07.
Petrobras was the outlier, and YPF and Ecopetrol fell by smaller amounts.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US oil fund (USO) | US$166.23 | -1.95% |
| Brent oil fund (BNO) | US$70.07 | -1.30% |
| Petrobras (ADR) | US$22.50 | -13.99% |
| YPF | US$49.24 | -2.84% |
| Ecopetrol | US$17.40 | -2.25% |
Source: RT close, 2026-10-26. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,608.23 | -13.88% | +21.85% | 205,082.56 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 10,575.59 | -1.59% | — | 10,746.36 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 69,647.80 | -0.33% | +12.17% | 69,879.62 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 3,017,221 | — | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,505.04 | -1.38% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 57,093.72 | +0.04% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
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03 What moved it
Oil was not the main story. Brazil’s election outcome drove the fall in Petrobras, which is state-controlled and therefore sensitive to political change.
In Brazil’s local market, Petrobras preferred shares fell 8.18% and common shares fell 6.81%. The bigger New York drop includes the dollar’s 8.79% jump against the real.
US energy shares rose, with the XLE fund up 0.45% to US$69.64.
04 The Latin American read
For Brazil, the Petrobras fall is a political signal as much as a market one. Investors worry about how a new term will treat the company’s pricing and dividends.
Argentina’s YPF fell 2.84% and the Merval fell 3.0%, with the peso at a record low. Colombia’s Ecopetrol fell 2.25% in New York, though its local shares rose 3.52% in Bogotá.
The split between Ecopetrol’s New York and local moves shows how currency and timing can change the picture.
05 The names to watch
Petrobras is the most urgent name for regional investors after a 13.99% one-day fall. Any statement on dividends, investment or pricing could move it quickly.
YPF is the main listed way to follow Argentina’s shale-oil story, and fell 2.84%.
Ecopetrol, at US$17.40 in New York, is Colombia’s state-controlled oil company.
06 The outlook
The oil price depends on global supply and demand, and the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week may shape the dollar. A firm dollar usually weighs on oil.
For Latin American producers, politics will drive the short-term picture more than the crude price.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction market, traders put the chance that US crude (WTI) touches US$105 a barrel in October at 45.0% and US$110 at 11.5%. They see a 24.0% chance of a dip to US$95. About US$4.67 million has been traded on this market, as of 26 October 2026, 8:48 pm ET.
Prices on prediction markets are bets, not polls or forecasts by officials.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Petrobras statements: Any word on dividends, pricing or investment plans.
- Brazilian real: A further slide would cut the dollar value of Brazilian oil shares.
- Federal Reserve meeting: Rate guidance could move the dollar and oil.
- YPF: Whether it follows Argentina’s weaker market.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Petrobras fall almost 14%?
Brazil’s stock market fell 13.88% after Lula’s re-election, and Petrobras is state-controlled, so investors worry about political influence.
Did oil prices fall on Monday?
Oil funds fell modestly. USO fell 1.95% and BNO fell 1.30%.
What are USO and BNO?
USO is an exchange-traded fund that tracks US crude oil, and BNO tracks Brent crude, the international benchmark.
Does this wrap state a WTI or Brent price?
No. A verified settlement price was not available for the session, so fund prices are shown instead.
Market data: RT
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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