Prediction Markets: Israel
Key Facts
•Prediction markets. Polymarket, a crypto-based betting market, prices Netanyahu out by 31 December at 54%, up 34.5 points in seven days (9:25 a.m. ET, 11 November).
•Trigger. President Isaac Herzog gave Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu’s main rival, the first try at a government on 8 November.
•Next. Eisenkot’s 28-day mandate runs to about 6 December; Netanyahu remains prime minister while Eisenkot tries to form a government.
•Volume. Only about US$5,100 was bet on the December contract in 24 hours, so it is thinly traded.
Traders now give Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, better than even odds of being out of office by the end of 2026. A week ago they gave it about one chance in five.
On Polymarket, the price that Netanyahu is out as prime minister by 31 December 2026 stood at 54% at 9:25 a.m. ET on Wednesday, 11 November. It was about 19.5% a week earlier and rose 3.5 points in the last 24 hours.
For US readers this matters because Israel’s next government will shape Washington’s talks on Gaza and Iran, and the bet is now that it will not be Netanyahu’s.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s market “Netanyahu out by…?” has one price for each deadline. At 9:25 a.m. ET on 11 November the live contracts read:
•31 December 2026: 54%, up 3.5 points in 24 hours and 34.5 points in seven days.
•31 March 2027: 67%, up 6.5 points in 24 hours and 36.5 points in seven days.
•30 June 2027: 69.5%, up 1 point in 24 hours and 29 points in seven days.
The whole market has drawn about US$125 million in bets since it opened, most of it on deadlines that have already passed. In the last 24 hours only about US$5,100 traded on the December contract, US$424 on March and US$38 on June, so a few bets can move these prices.
Two related markets point the same way. On Polymarket’s “Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?”
Eisenkot is priced at 61.1% and Netanyahu at 23.2%. Kalshi, an exchange regulated in the US by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), shows Eisenkot at 65.0% to succeed Netanyahu, with 146,795 contracts traded across all candidates in that market.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why the Odds Moved
Israel voted on Tuesday, 27 October. Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc, led by his Likud party, won 53 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, and Eisenkot’s opposition bloc won 48.
Arab-led parties took the other 19, and a government needs 61. Herzog’s office said 67 lawmakers recommended Eisenkot, a former army chief who leads the new Yashar party, and 46 recommended Netanyahu.
Herzog told Eisenkot on Saturday evening, 7 November, and the formal handover followed on Sunday, 8 November. Eisenkot has 28 days, which our count puts at Sunday, 6 December, and can ask for 14 more, to 20 December.
Then came Tuesday, 10 November. Netanyahu urged a national unity government in a Knesset speech.
Eisenkot called the speech divisive, and Yashar cancelled a meeting with Likud planned for 11 November. Likud said Netanyahu would meet any party seeking unity.
The same day Yashar submitted more than 61 signatures to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, a Likud member. A vote is expected next week.
These steps show Eisenkot’s camp counting votes, but a Knesset vote on a Speaker is not a vote on a government.
Live Market IntelligenceCrypto — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Crypto — Live Market Board
-0.52%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 73,340 | -0.52% | -28.78% | 73,720 | 74,033 | 73,264 | 27,531,198,464 |
| ETH | 2,045 | -0.24% | -40.10% | 2,050 | 2,069 | 2,042 | 11,849,034,752 |
| SOL | 83.96 | +0.84% | -45.69% | 83.26 | 84.63 | 82.41 | 2,611,232,512 |
| XRP | 1.05 | -0.22% | -55.96% | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.05 | 2,290,453,248 |
| BNB | 679.21 | -0.06% | -29.12% | 679.59 | 683.20 | 676.41 | 1,259,932,416 |
| ADA | 0.18 | +1.48% | -68.31% | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 216,666,080 |
| DOGE | 0.07 | +0.00% | -60.48% | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 559,861,312 |
| AVAX | 8.49 | +1.46% | -50.08% | 8.37 | 8.71 | 8.37 | 311,495,104 |
| LINK | 10.30 | +0.19% | -32.70% | 10.28 | 10.41 | 10.24 | 204,602,096 |
| DOT | 0.86 | +2.41% | -71.73% | 0.84 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 72,249,160 |
| LTC | 50.89 | +0.41% | -48.94% | 50.68 | 51.33 | 50.41 | 200,175,328 |
| BCH | 230.12 | -0.27% | -54.49% | 230.74 | 232.32 | 227.80 | 157,270,784 |
| TRX | 0.32 | -0.29% | +6.68% | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 326,349,696 |
| XLM | 0.15 | +2.66% | -47.25% | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 125,595,776 |
| HBAR | 0.07 | +0.67% | -62.86% | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 41,834,100 |
| NEAR | 3.73 | +4.01% | +46.42% | 3.58 | 3.79 | 3.56 | 763,076,864 |
| ATOM | 1.42 | +1.45% | -51.75% | 1.40 | 1.44 | 1.39 | 27,833,392 |
| AAVE | 122.92 | -0.45% | -40.80% | 123.48 | 125.25 | 122.22 | 176,558,784 |
The Catch: Eisenkot Still Lacks 61
His own bloc holds 48 seats. Eisenkot has said his government will include only parties that accept his principles, and Arab-led parties may back him from outside.
Netanyahu has warned that “Such a government, dependent on Islamists, will dismantle the state of Israel from within”. Adding the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism would give him exactly 61, but neither has said it will join.
Ahmad Tibi, an Arab-party leader, has said he expects a minority government with outside Arab support. If Eisenkot fails, Herzog may give the task to another candidate, or Israelis could face a new election.
Netanyahu remains prime minister while Eisenkot tries to form a government. The 31 December contract pays out only if he announces he is stepping down, or actually ceases to be prime minister, by 11:59 p.m. ET that day.
What It Means for US Readers
Israel’s government is Washington’s partner on Gaza, Iran and arms deals. A change at the top could shift that agenda, though Eisenkot has not published a foreign policy plan that we could verify.
Oil traders and defence-sector investors usually watch Israeli politics because of Iran. The odds can move again within hours, and the market is thin enough that one large bet can swing the December price.
What It Means for Latin America and Africa
We found no verified, direct effect on any Latin American or African country from this coalition fight. The channel to watch is oil and Middle East security, which touch fuel prices and shipping costs in both regions.
What Is Not Known
No one knows whether Shas or United Torah Judaism will back Eisenkot, or whether Arab parties would support a minority government from outside. No single trigger has been proven for the speed of the rise; the link to the 8 November handover is our reading of the timing, not a proven cause.
Also unclear is whether Netanyahu could keep his post by splitting the opposition. The next dates to watch are the Speaker vote expected next week and Eisenkot’s mandate deadline around 6 December.
Read our earlier reports: Israel pick sends Netanyahu exit odds to 68%, Israel taps Eisenkot to form a government and how Israeli coalitions work. More markets are on our Prediction Markets hub.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Netanyahu still prime minister?
Yes. He remains prime minister while Eisenkot tries to form a government. The 31 December market asks whether he announces a departure or leaves by that date.
What are the odds that Netanyahu is out by the end of 2026?
Polymarket priced it at 54% at 9:25 a.m. ET on 11 November, up from about 19.5% a week earlier. Those prices are bets, not forecasts by The Rio Times.
Who is Gadi Eisenkot?
He is a former Israeli army chief and leader of the Yashar party. President Herzog gave him the first try at forming a government on 8 November.
How long does Eisenkot have?
He has 28 days from 8 November, which our count puts at 6 December, plus a possible 14-day extension to 20 December.
Is Polymarket a poll?
No. Its prices come from real-money bets, and Kalshi is a separate exchange regulated in the US by the CFTC. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Sources
Office of the President of Israel · Knesset · Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 11 November 2026, 9:25 a.m. ET)
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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