MEXICO · ENERGY
Key Facts
- —What is happening Mexico’s energy ministry said on Wednesday, 21 October that fuel purchase and sales invoices for 2025 differ by 8.824 billion litres, about 150,000 barrels a day by a Rio Times conversion, and an ex-official called that figure higher than his own estimate on Thursday.
- —Why it matters The gap points to fuel sold without a declared origin, which the government links to tax evasion and smuggling, and Mexico is a large buyer of US gasoline and diesel.
- —The numbers The mismatch carries about 61.8 billion pesos (about US$3.3 billion) in unpaid excise tax, and 72% of the volume sits with fuel trading companies rather than petrol stations.
- —Who is who Luz Elena González is Mexico’s Energy Secretary, and Francisco Barnés de Castro is a former deputy energy secretary and ex-head of the Mexican Petroleum Institute.
- —What to watch Whether the 2025 mismatch leads to tax claims and criminal cases against named companies, and whether Congress limits the middlemen the president says create most imbalances.
- —Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you For US readers, Mexico is tightening checks on imported fuel, so US suppliers and shippers face closer scrutiny of their paperwork, while the gap itself is not proven theft.
Officials call it an invoice mismatch, not proven theft. It is the first official measure of fuel that moved without a declared origin.
Mexico’s government said on Wednesday, 21 October that a Mexico fuel gap of 8.824 billion litres opened in 2025. That equals about 150,000 barrels a day, and it matters to US exporters who sell fuel to Mexico.
Energy Secretary Luz Elena González presented the finding at President Claudia Sheinbaum’s morning press conference. On Thursday, 22 October, former deputy energy secretary Francisco Barnés de Castro told Aristegui Noticias the figure exceeded his own estimate.
What the Government Presented
The ministry compared the fuel that companies declared buying with the fuel they invoiced selling during 2025. The 8.824 billion litres carry about 61.8 billion pesos (about US$3.3 billion) of excise tax, known as IEPS.
Conversions use 18.73 pesos per US$, the rate of 23 October 2026 from open.er-api.com. At 158.99 litres a barrel, a Rio Times calculation gives about 152,000 barrels a day, while Aristegui Noticias reports about 150,000.
Sheinbaum named two methods: declaring less fuel than enters Mexico, and labelling gasoline or diesel as naphtha or chemicals. She added that some groups involved are not necessarily linked to organised crime, Plano Informativo reported.
González said the 2025 records can no longer be changed because the fiscal year has closed. She said every company that misused its permits must now answer to the authorities and pay its taxes.
Where the Gap Sits
Fuel trading companies hold the largest share, 6.352 billion litres worth 44.468 billion pesos (about US$2.4 billion), or 72% of the total. Petrol stations account for 1.199 billion litres, worth 8.396 billion pesos (about US$448 million), or 13%.
Importers show 645 million litres, or 4.517 billion pesos (about US$241 million). Other permit holders show 497 million litres (about US$186 million), and distributors 131 million litres (about US$49 million).
What Changed in 2026
Fuel import declarations rose 10.54% in the first nine months of 2026, from 23.933 billion to 26.455 billion litres, Crónica reported. Customs checks at 14 offices corrected declarations for 1.952 billion litres, tied to 13.664 billion pesos (about US$729 million) of excise tax.
Sheinbaum said excise tax collected from January to September 2026 was about 48 billion pesos (about US$2.6 billion) above a year earlier. She added that this is not necessarily recovery of tax evaded in 2025.
Officials also said 2,539 people have been detained this year, a count covered in a separate report on the fuel crackdown. Sheinbaum said the government may change the law to curb middleman traders, the source of the biggest imbalances.
What a Former Official Says
Barnés de Castro, who also ran the Mexican Petroleum Institute, said he was pleasantly surprised by the government’s analysis. His own estimate was between 110,000 and 120,000 barrels a day, which he called deliberately conservative.
His estimate rested mainly on fuel from the United States, the flow he could trace in US and Mexican records. He also found US exports labelled as oil additive that rose sharply after 2017 or 2018, and he suspects some is fuel.
He put the 2025 loss to the treasury at 48 billion pesos (about US$2.6 billion) of excise tax. He added 52 billion pesos (about US$2.8 billion) of value-added tax, all his own estimates.
Barnés de Castro also estimated an unexplained crude oil gap of about 120,000 barrels a day from January to August 2026. He said it is either an error in the figures or theft from the system.
What It Means for US Readers
Mexico is a major buyer of US fuel, and Sheinbaum said officials swap data with US Customs and Border Protection. US refiners, traders and shippers selling into Mexico should expect closer checks on invoices and import declarations.
Barnés de Castro says US export records, including the oil additive category, help reveal the mismatch. He adds that Pemex reports estimates of lost fuel to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which matters to bondholders.
Earlier reports cover Pemex’s staff dismissals, a tunnel found near Pemex pipelines and Pemex’s US$20 billion debt cut. The guide to Mexico’s government and the Mexico hub give wider context.
What Is Not Known
The ministry did not say how much of the 8.824 billion litres is smuggled, stolen, mislabelled or simply badly recorded. It describes inconsistencies between invoices, not proven crimes.
The reports reviewed do not name the companies involved or say how many face tax claims or criminal cases. The barrel figure is a Rio Times conversion that Aristegui Noticias also reports, not a ministry number in the reports reviewed.
Barnés de Castro’s loss estimates and his crude oil gap are his own calculations. The ministry has not confirmed them.
What Comes Next
Sheinbaum said the agencies review the cases twice a week, and plans a public list of fuel firms. Changes to the law on trading companies have been floated, but no bill has been announced.
This does not mean that 150,000 barrels a day left Mexico or were stolen. It means that volumes in company invoices did not match across the supply chain.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Mexico fuel gap?
It is 8.824 billion litres of fuel in 2025 that company invoices did not match, about 150,000 barrels a day. The government links it to tax evasion and smuggling.
How much tax is involved?
The government puts the unpaid excise tax at about 61.8 billion pesos, or about US$3.3 billion. President Sheinbaum cited about 61 billion pesos.
Is the gap proven fuel theft?
No, the ministry describes inconsistencies in invoices. It has not said how much is smuggling, theft or bad record-keeping.
Who is Francisco Barnés de Castro?
He is a former deputy energy secretary and former head of the Mexican Petroleum Institute. He said the government’s figure is higher than his own estimate of 110,000 to 120,000 barrels a day.
Does this affect US companies?
US firms that sell fuel into Mexico face closer checks on invoices and import declarations. Mexican officials say they exchange data with US Customs and Border Protection.
Sources: President Claudia Sheinbaum’s morning press conference, 21 October (official transcript at gob.mx could not be opened); La Crónica de Hoy, 21 October; Diario de México, 21 October; Plano Informativo, 21 October; Expansión Política, 21 October; Aristegui Noticias, 22 October; exchange rate from open.er-api.com (all accessed 23 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief