Hurricane Trudy Path and Intensity: What We Know
MEXICO · EXPLAINER
Key Facts
- —The country Mexico, the United States’ southern neighbour, has a Pacific coast of ports and beach resorts such as Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.
- —Why it matters A major hurricane is forecast to pass near the Colima and Jalisco coast this weekend, with heavy rain, rough surf and a warning zone that includes Manzanillo.
- —Why now Trudy’s strengthening paused on Friday 16 October, and Mexico added a hurricane warning from Manzanillo to Playa Perula.
- —What happened Trudy is a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph (195 km/h) winds, centred 235 miles (380 km) south-west of Acapulco at 11 a.m. ET on Friday.
- —The numbers The forecast peak is 140 mph (225 km/h) on Saturday, with 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm) of rain and isolated totals near 15 inches (380 mm).
- —What it means for you Visitors to Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo should follow local civil protection orders and check flights and hotels before the weekend.
- —Still open Where the centre passes the coast, whether Trudy reaches Category 4 and how much rain falls on steep terrain.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives a Category 4 peak for Trudy a 56.5% chance and a Category 3 peak a 43.5% chance (16 October, 12:48 p.m. ET).
- —Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
Hurricane Trudy path and intensity are the two questions for Mexico’s Pacific coast this weekend. The latest US advisory shows a Category 3 storm with 120 mph (195 km/h) winds, forecast to pass near Colima and Jalisco on Saturday night.
For US readers, the warning zone runs along a stretch popular with American visitors, from Manzanillo towards Puerto Vallarta. Here is what the forecasts say, how sure they are and what is still unknown.
Hurricane Trudy Path and Intensity in the Latest Advisory
At 9 a.m. Mexico Central time on Friday 16 October (11 a.m. ET), the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami placed Trudy’s centre 235 miles (380 km) south-west of Acapulco. It was 325 miles (525 km) south-south-east of Manzanillo, moving north-north-west at 5 mph (7 km/h), Advisory 13 shows.
Maximum sustained winds were 120 mph (195 km/h), and the central pressure was 956 millibars. Hurricane-force winds reached 30 miles (45 km) from the centre, and tropical-storm-force winds reached 140 miles (220 km).
The NHC expects the centre to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday. It should pass near the coast on Saturday night into Sunday, before moving away.
Mexico’s national weather service, the SMN, put the closest approach at about 40 miles (65 km) off Jalisco and Colima on Sunday. Its coordinator, Fabián Vázquez Romaña, told the president’s morning press conference that the track is still uncertain, López-Dóriga and Vanguardia reported.
He said any shift to the right or left could change conditions a great deal. The SMN also gave winds of 220 km/h (about 137 mph) with gusts of 270 km/h (about 168 mph), above the NHC figure, and this guide uses the NHC numbers.
How Strong Trudy Could Get Before the Coast
The NHC forecasts winds of 130 mph (210 km/h) by 8 p.m. ET on Friday and 140 mph (225 km/h) by 8 a.m. ET on Saturday. That would be a Category 4 hurricane, the second-highest step on the five-step Saffir-Simpson wind scale, which starts at 130 mph (209 km/h).
Strengthening has paused for now, because the eye became less distinct and the eyewall opened on its south side. The NHC said dry air wrapping into that part of the storm may be the cause.
It added that intensification has sputtered twice in the past day or so. Its regional hurricane models show no further strengthening, while other guidance shows some, so the forecast blends the two.
After Saturday the NHC expects steady to rapid weakening from land contact, drier air and wind shear. It shows 115 mph (185 km/h) on Sunday morning, 75 mph (120 km/h) by Monday morning and a remnant low by Wednesday 21 October.
The SMN’s Vázquez Romaña said Trudy had intensified rapidly and could reach Category 4 before nearing Colima and Jalisco. He said winds, surf and rain would begin on Saturday, strongest along the Jalisco coast and around Manzanillo, with the storm moving away on Monday and Tuesday.
Warnings, Rain and Surf Along the Coast
The Government of Mexico issued a hurricane warning on Friday for the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula. A hurricane watch covers Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes and the coast from Manzanillo south to Punta San Telmo.
A tropical storm warning runs from Manzanillo south to Zihuatanejo, and a tropical storm watch covers the coast north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, a stretch that includes Banderas Bay and Puerto Vallarta. The NHC says more watches or warnings will likely be needed later on Friday, with its next full advisory due at 3 p.m. Mexico Central time (5 p.m. ET).
Through the weekend the NHC expects 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm) of rain along the Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco coast, with isolated totals near 15 inches (380 mm). It warns of life-threatening flooding and mudslides on steep terrain.
The SMN forecast 200 to 300 millimetres (8 to 12 inches) in some areas between Friday and Sunday, Vanguardia reported. A separate cold front is also set to bring heavy rain to the Gulf side and gusts up to 75 mph (120 km/h) in Veracruz.
Swells are already reaching parts of the southwest coast and will spread north, bringing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Storm surge flooding is possible where winds blow onshore.
The NHC’s wind probabilities give Manzanillo an 87% chance of tropical-storm-force winds and a 24% chance of hurricane-force winds over five days. For Puerto Vallarta the figures are 51% and 2%, and for Barra de Navidad 79% and 17%.
Further south, Guerrero state suspended classes in all 85 municipalities on Thursday 15 October, ADN40 reported. Our earlier coverage tracks the storm from its start in Storm Trudy Threatens Acapulco Coast to Hurricane Trudy Gains Strength Off Mexico.
The news report from earlier on Friday is Hurricane Trudy Hits Category 3 Off Mexico, written when the hurricane first reached major strength. Its forecast numbers have since been updated by the 11 a.m. ET advisory used here.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket lists a market called “How strong will Trudy be?” that pays on the highest category in any NHC advisory. At 12:48 p.m. ET on Friday 16 October it priced a Category 4 peak at 56.5 cents, a Category 3 peak at 43.5 cents and a Category 5 peak at 4.5 cents.
A price of 56.5 cents reads as a 56.5% chance, and the trading volume across the five outcomes is only about US$11,800, so these are thin bets. The Category 3 price rose 32.5 points in 24 hours while Category 4 fell 15.5 points and Category 5 fell 10 points.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you are in or near Puerto Vallarta, Manzanillo or Barra de Navidad, follow local civil protection orders and the SMN alongside the NHC. Hotels, airlines and tour operators set their own rules, so confirm with them directly before the weekend.
Our Puerto Vallarta City Guide for Expats and Visitors covers the area, and What to Do in Puerto Vallarta in October 2026 lists events that may change. For the wider picture, see our Mexico coverage and the Expats in Mexico guide.
Manzanillo is a Pacific container port inside the warning zone, so shipping schedules may be affected, and port operators’ own notices are the place to check. Check your travel-insurance wording for named storms, and keep passports and medication in a waterproof bag.
What Is Not Known
Where the centre will pass the coast is not known, and the SMN says small shifts could change conditions a great deal. The NHC says guidance has some spread after 60 hours, which affects where the weakening storm goes next week.
Whether Trudy reaches Category 4 is open, because the models disagree. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is due to fly into the storm later on Friday, and its data may change the picture.
This guide reports no damage or evacuation figures, because none had been confirmed at the time of writing. The numbers come from Advisory 13 at 11 a.m. ET (4 p.m. Lisbon) on 16 October, and later advisories will replace them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where is Hurricane Trudy now?
At 11 a.m. ET on Friday 16 October the NHC placed it 235 miles (380 km) south-west of Acapulco. It was moving north-north-west at 5 mph (7 km/h).
How strong is Hurricane Trudy?
Trudy is a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/h). The NHC forecasts a peak near 140 mph (225 km/h), a Category 4, on Saturday.
Which parts of Mexico are under a hurricane warning?
A hurricane warning covers the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula. Watches and tropical storm warnings cover the coast from Zihuatanejo to San Blas.
Will Hurricane Trudy hit Puerto Vallarta?
The NHC gives Puerto Vallarta a 51% chance of tropical-storm-force winds and a 2% chance of hurricane-force winds over five days. The NHC says the centre will pass near or over the coast of west-central Mexico around Sunday morning, so the track still matters.
When will Trudy be closest to the coast?
The NHC expects it to approach on Saturday and pass near the coast on Saturday night into Sunday. The SMN puts the closest approach at about 40 miles (65 km) offshore on Sunday.
How much rain will Hurricane Trudy bring?
The NHC expects 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm) along the Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco coast, with isolated totals near 15 inches (380 mm). The SMN forecast 200 to 300 millimetres (8 to 12 inches) in some areas.
Sources: National Hurricane Center, Public Advisory 13, 16 October 2026; National Hurricane Center, Forecast Discussion 13, 16 October 2026; National Hurricane Center, Wind Speed Probabilities 13, 16 October 2026; López-Dóriga, 16 October 2026; Vanguardia, 16 October 2026; ADN40, 14 October 2026. Prediction-market prices from Polymarket public data, 16 October 2026, 12:48 p.m. ET.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief