Mexico · ENERGY
Key Facts
- —The claim Sheinbaum said on 1 September 2026 that her government cut Pemex’s debt by US$20 billion.
- —No period given She named no start or end date for the figure.
- —What the numbers show Financial debt fell from US$97.3 billion in September 2024 to US$77.5 billion in June 2026.
- —What paid for it The state provided more than US$40 billion of support during 2025.
- —What is left out Pemex also owed suppliers 374.3 billion pesos (US$21.4 billion) at the end of June.
- —The agencies Fitch and Moody’s upgraded Pemex in 2025, but S&P has not and turned negative in May 2026.
The number is close to right. What it leaves out is who paid, and the twenty billion dollars Pemex still owes its suppliers.
President Claudia Sheinbaum told her second annual address on 1 September 2026 that her government had cut Pemex’s debt by US$20 billion. She gave no dates.
The figure holds up against her own term. What it does not cover is how the reduction was paid for, or what Pemex still owes outside its bonds and loans.
What She Said, and What It Measures
Her words were that the government reduced Pemex’s debt by 20 billion dollars. She attached no baseline and no end date to the claim.
Measured from the start of her term the arithmetic works. Financial debt was US$97.3 billion on 30 September 2024 and US$77.5 billion on 30 June 2026.
That is US$19.8 billion, close enough to twenty. The Mexican fact-checking outlet Verificado called the round number imprecise rather than wrong.
A separate comparison against 2018 circulates in Mexican coverage. That one comes from Pemex chief executive Víctor Rodríguez Padilla and energy secretary Luz Elena González, not from the president.
What Financial Debt Does Not Include
Financial debt means bonds and bank loans. It does not include money owed to the companies that have already done the work.
At 30 June 2026 Pemex owed suppliers 374.3 billion pesos, about US$21.4 billion. Add that to the financial debt and total obligations approach US$99 billion.
The two are different kinds of debt and should not simply be added without saying so. But a supplier waiting to be paid is owed money all the same.
Supplier debt has fallen, from a peak of 517.1 billion pesos in late 2025. Much of that fall is deferral rather than payment: 250.5 billion pesos was pushed out to 2033 on a quarterly schedule.
Who Actually Paid
The reduction did not come from selling oil. It came from the Mexican treasury.
Pemex received more than US$40 billion of state support during 2025. That figure covers cash injections and the government buying back Pemex debt, not just budget transfers.
Straight transfers from the finance ministry were smaller, around 392 billion pesos in the first eleven months of 2025. The rest is the debt operations.
The 2026 budget sets aside 263.5 billion pesos, about US$15.5 billion, for Pemex debt payments. That is one allocation, not two.
The Three Transactions Behind the Numbers
Moody’s describes support under Pemex’s strategic plan as exceeding US$30 billion. That support contains three separate operations.
The first is a US$12 billion pre-capitalised note issue through a Luxembourg vehicle, aimed at short-term debt. The Mexican state carries an unconditional obligation to make substitute payments on it.
The second is an investment fund of about US$13.3 billion managed by the development bank Banobras. That one is mainly for paying suppliers, not for managing debt.
The third is a US$9.9 billion tender offer across eleven bond series maturing between 2025 and 2029. Together the structures cut interest costs by roughly US$1.5 billion from 2026.
What the Rating Agencies Did
Fitch raised Pemex three notches during 2025, in two separate moves. It went from B+ to BB on 1 August, after the note issue.
It went to BB+ on 3 October, after the tender offer closed.
Moody’s raised it two notches on 8 September 2025, from B3 to B1 with a stable outlook. It kept the standalone assessment at its lowest rungs.
These were the first upgrades since 2013. Moody’s affirmed B1 in May 2026 after Mexico’s own sovereign rating was cut.
The Agency That Did Not Upgrade
S&P has not raised Pemex at all in this cycle. When the energy secretary said in February 2026 that all three agencies had upgraded the company, S&P publicly contradicted her.
There has been no rating change on our part, the agency said. Its last adjustment was in 2022.
S&P rates Pemex mxAAA on the Mexican national scale, but that rating dates from 2003 and rests entirely on state support. Its view of Pemex standing alone is ccc+ on the global scale.
In May 2026 it moved the outlook from stable to negative, its first such shift in nearly four years. It called the capital structure unsustainable, with debt at 5.8 times earnings.
Whether Any of It Lasts
Pemex made a profit of 18 billion pesos in the second quarter of 2026, on revenue up 30.3%. It had lost 46 billion pesos in the first quarter.
Crude output is around 1.2 million barrels a day, down from about 1.6 million in 2019. Moody’s says recent stabilisation does not signal a structural reversal.
Katherine Olvera of the research centre CIEP calls the improvement a spreadsheet illusion. Without the transfers, she says, there is a deficit.
Julio Ruiz of Citi puts it more simply: help cannot keep coming without changing Pemex structurally. Moody’s expects funding needs averaging about US$14.9 billion a year through 2028.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Sheinbaum actually say?
Her words were that the government reduced Pemex’s debt by 20 billion dollars. She gave no start or end date for the figure.
Is the US$20 billion right?
Close. Financial debt was US$97.3 billion when she took office in September 2024 and US$77.5 billion in June 2026.
That is a fall of US$19.8 billion.
What is left out of the figure?
Money owed to suppliers. At 30 June 2026 that stood at 374.3 billion pesos, about US$21.4 billion.
It is a separate obligation from bonds and bank loans.
Who paid for the reduction?
The Mexican state. It provided more than US$40 billion of support during 2025 through cash injections and buying back Pemex debt.
Have the rating agencies upgraded Pemex?
Two of the three. Fitch raised it three notches during 2025 and Moody’s two, while S&P has not upgraded Pemex and turned negative in May 2026.
Connected Coverage
Sources: Segundo Informe de Gobierno, 1 September 2026; Pemex second-quarter 2026 report; Moody’s Issuer In-Depth of 8 September 2025 and rating action of 22 May 2026; Fitch rating actions of 1 August and 3 October 2025; S&P Global Ratings; Verificado; El Financiero; El Economista; World Oil. Converted at 16.9755 pesos to the dollar, the Banco de México FIX rate for 1 September 2026, except the 30 June balance-sheet figure, converted at that day’s FIX of 17.4693.
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