MEXICO · BANKING
Key Facts
- The country Mexico is Latin America’s second-largest economy, where lower interest rates are trimming the margins of banks while credit demand grows.
- Why it matters Banco del Bajío lends mainly to medium-sized companies and small firms from a base in central Mexico, so its loan growth is a read on credit for businesses that supply US customers.
- Why now The bank’s third-quarter 2026 results were out by Friday 30 October 2026.
- What happened Net income fell 21.4% to 1,782 million pesos (about US$95 million) from 2,267 million pesos (about US$120 million) a year earlier, while the loan book grew 16.5%.
- The numbers Loans reached 312,368 million pesos (about US$16.6 billion), past-due loans fell to 1.8% of the book from 2.0%, and return on equity was 14.7%.
- What it means for you A US investor or exporter sees a well-capitalised lender growing fast but earning less per loan as rates fall and costs rise.
- Still open Whether profit recovers as funding costs ease and whether the bank keeps its 2026 profit guidance.
- Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
Banco del Bajío, a Mexican lender to medium-sized companies and small firms, earned 1,782 million pesos (about US$95 million) in the third quarter of 2026, 21.4% less than the 2,267 million pesos (about US$120 million) of a year earlier, according to an analyst note from the brokerage B×+ dated Friday 30 October. The note says the result fell short of the consensus estimate even though the loan book grew 16.5% to 312,368 million pesos (about US$16.6 billion).
The bank, known as BanBajío, takes its name from the Bajío region of central Mexico, where many factories and farms sell to US buyers, so its loan growth is a read on credit for exporters, as the profile of Banco del Bajío explains. Peso amounts here are converted at the Banxico FIX rate of 18.7962 per US dollar set on Friday 30 October, and wider economic context is in Mexico Economy Grows 0.9% in Third Quarter.
Profit Falls as Rates and Costs Bite
Interest income slipped 1.3% as the average yield on assets fell by 120 basis points, a basis point being one hundredth of a percentage point, while interest expense dropped 4.2% on an average cost of liabilities 80 basis points lower. Net interest income, the gap between the two, rose 1.1% to 5,341 million pesos (about US$284 million), breaking a run of six quarters of contraction, the B×+ analysts wrote.
Loan-loss provisions rose 25.9% to 913 million pesos (about US$49 million) and operating expenses rose 5.9%, which cut operating profit by 19.2% to 2,488 million pesos (about US$132 million). A 13.3% drop in taxes softened the blow, leaving net income down 21.4%, while income that is not interest climbed 31.4%, the note shows.
Loans Grow 16.5% With Cleaner Books
The loan book grew 16.5% to 312,368 million pesos (about US$16.6 billion), faster than the 11.8% of the second quarter, with business loans up 16.0%, consumer loans up 12.2%, government loans up 38.0% and loans to financial institutions up 11.1%. Mortgages shrank 11.9%, the note shows.
The ratio of past-due loans improved by 20 basis points to 1.8%, while the cost of funding fell to 4.5% from 5.3% a year earlier and the return on equity was 14.7%. The latest capitalisation ratio stood at 14.84%, which B×+ describes as a solid equity position that can support further growth.
Second Quarter and Guidance
Net income fell 15.9% from the 2,118 million pesos (about US$113 million) of the second quarter, when B×+ also judged the results below the consensus estimate. In July the bank lifted its 2026 loan-growth guidance to 11% to 12% from 8% to 10% and raised the bottom of its net income range to 8,400 million pesos (about US$447 million) from 8,250 million pesos (about US$439 million), with the top unchanged at 9,000 million pesos (about US$479 million), B×+ wrote at the time.
Fitch Ratings revised the outlook on the bank’s long-term international ratings to positive from stable on 2 October and affirmed the BB+ rating, one notch below investment grade, citing its expectation that the bank’s business profile will keep strengthening. HR Ratings ratified its HR AAA rating with a stable outlook on 25 September and said a sustained net capital ratio below 11.8% could lead to a downgrade.
What It Means for You
For US investors, the shares trade on the Mexican Stock Exchange under the ticker BBAJIOO at 55.82 pesos (about US$2.97) on 30 October, a market value of 67,849.9 million pesos (about US$3.6 billion) and 8.4 times trailing earnings against a five-year average of 6.8, B×+ calculated. The multiple has risen because net income has been falling, the note says.
For US companies with suppliers or customers in central Mexico, the 16.5% loan growth and the 1.8% past-due ratio point to steady credit for medium-sized firms even as rates fall. For a US investor, the quarterly profit of 1,782 million pesos translates to about US$95 million at the 30 October FIX rate of 18.7962 per dollar, and swings in the peso move that figure as much as the bank’s own performance does.
What Is Not Known
The bank’s own results report could not be opened on 31 October because its investor pages did not load, so the figures here rest on the B×+ analyst note, which cites company reports, and on rating-agency filings. Earnings per share and the consensus figure itself are not given in the note, so the size of the miss is not known.
It is not known whether the bank kept its 2026 net income guidance of 8,400 million pesos (about US$447 million) to 9,000 million pesos (about US$479 million) after the third quarter. The note also does not say whether the 80 basis point drop in funding costs will keep outpacing the fall in asset yields.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did Banco del Bajío earn in the third quarter of 2026?
Banco del Bajío earned 1,782 million pesos, about US$95 million at the 30 October Banxico FIX rate of 18.7962 per dollar. That is 21.4% less than the 2,267 million pesos (about US$120 million) of the third quarter of 2025.
Is Banco del Bajío growing its loans?
Yes, the loan book grew 16.5% to 312,368 million pesos (about US$16.6 billion) in the third quarter. Business loans rose 16.0%, while mortgages fell 11.9%.
How good is the bank’s loan quality?
The past-due loan ratio improved to 1.8% from 2.0% a year earlier. The latest capitalisation ratio was 14.84%, according to the B×+ analyst note.
What are Banco del Bajío’s credit ratings?
Fitch affirmed the bank’s BB+ long-term international rating on 2 October and moved the outlook to positive from stable. HR Ratings ratified its HR AAA rating with a stable outlook on 25 September.
Did Banco del Bajío miss expectations?
B×+ analysts wrote that the results were below the consensus estimate, mainly because of lower interest rates and higher operating costs. The note does not give the consensus figure.
Sources: Casa de Bolsa Ve por Más (B×+), Resultados Trimestrales: Banco del Bajío, 30 October 2026; B×+, Resultados Trimestrales: Banco del Bajío, 29 July 2026; Fitch Ratings rating action on BanBajío, Mexican Stock Exchange filing, 2 October 2026; HR Ratings rating action on Banco del Bajío, Mexican Stock Exchange filing, 25 September 2026; Banco de México, FIX exchange rate, 30 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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