Madagascar in Africa, Its Role, Weight and Alliances

MADAGASCAR · AFRICA

On the African continent Madagascar is a heavyweight by headcount, with 32.7 million people, yet a lightweight by income at US$599 a person. It is an Indian Ocean island, yet it sits inside the African Union, the bloc SADC and a continent-wide free-trade area.

Americans bought US$695 million of its goods in 2025, and its army-led government keeps channels open to Paris and Washington.

Madagascar on the Continent at a Glance

Madagascar is one of the world’s largest islands, set in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Mozambique. It has 32.7 million people, according to World Bank estimates for 2025, and its capital is Antananarivo in the central highlands.

The African Union lists 25 May 1963 as the date Madagascar joined its predecessor, the Organisation of African Unity. Since the military takeover of 14 October 2025, Michaël Randrianirina has led the country.

His title at the UN General Assembly on 24 September 2026 was President of the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar. Mamitiana Rajaonarison is prime minister, according to the Prime Minister’s office in October 2026.

Our guide Madagascar Explained tells the story of the takeover. The Africa hub follows the wider continent.

• African Union (AU): the club of 55 African states, based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
• Peace and Security Council: the AU body that decides on coups and wars.
• SADC: the Southern African Development Community, a 16-member bloc for the south of the continent.
• COMESA: the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, a 21-member trade club.
• AfCFTA: the African Continental Free Trade Area, a continent-wide trade pact.
• Refoundation: the name the new rulers give to their 24-month transition.
• Scattered Islands: Glorieuses, Juan de Nova, Europa and Bassas da India, held by France and claimed by Madagascar.

Weight in People and Money

With 32.7 million people in 2025, Madagascar ranks 15th among 54 African countries and holds about 2.1% of the continent’s population. Its economy of US$19.6 billion ranks 30th among the 52 African countries with data and makes up about 0.6% of the total.

Those shares are our calculation from World Bank data for 2025, which has no figures for Eritrea and South Sudan. Income per person is the sharper number, at US$599, which puts Madagascar 50th of the 52 countries with data.

The World Bank puts the poverty rate at 66.5% in 2025 and the Human Capital Index at 0.39, among the lowest anywhere. Growth has averaged about 3% a year since the 2010s, which is too little when the population grows 2.4% a year.

Mozambique, across the water, has 35.6 million people and an economy of US$22.3 billion, so it is slightly bigger on both counts. Malawi has 22.2 million people and US$14.9 billion, while Zambia has 21.9 million and US$28.9 billion.

Tanzania, with 70.5 million people, has an economy of US$90.1 billion, more than four times the size of Madagascar. Mauritius, with only 1.2 million people, earns US$12,991 per person, about 22 times more than Madagascar.

Madagascar and the African Union

The African Union is the 55-member club of African states, and its Peace and Security Council handles coups and crises. On 15 October 2025 the council suspended Madagascar from all AU activities, a day after the military seized power.

The suspension lasts until constitutional order is restored, the council said at its 1306th meeting. It demanded that the army stay out of politics and warned of targeted sanctions on those behind the takeover.

The council also called for a civilian-led transitional government and free, fair, credible and transparent elections as soon as possible. It asked the AU Commission to support that path with SADC and appealed to outside actors not to interfere.

In practice, the island’s seat at AU meetings stays empty while the suspension lasts. At the UN General Assembly on 24 September 2026, Randrianirina said Africa “cannot remain on the margins of decision-making”.

He said Africa needs a permanent representative on the UN Security Council and called for a rebalancing of the global financial system. He also said Madagascar stays neutral and puts maritime security in the Mozambique Channel at the heart of its regional work.

Madagascar in SADC, the Southern African Bloc

SADC admitted Madagascar at its summit in Gaborone, Botswana, on 17 and 18 August 2005. It is a 16-member bloc, and its Panel of Elders is the main regional channel to the island during the crisis.

SADC’s 46th summit met in Durban, South Africa, on 17 August 2026, and Randrianirina attended for Madagascar. The summit welcomed “constructive engagement” in Madagascar through the SADC Panel of Elders, a group of senior figures who work on mediation.

It urged stakeholders to keep the relative calm and settle grievances through dialogue, and it backed a return to constitutional normalcy. It also appointed former presidents Joaquim Chissano of Mozambique and Mokgweetsi Masisi of Botswana to the Panel of Elders.

South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa was elected SADC chair at that summit, with the President of Zambia as incoming chair. Zimbabwe’s Emmerson Mnangagwa, the outgoing chair, was thanked for his support during the interim period.

SADC held an extraordinary summit by video link on 21 October 2026, chaired by Ramaphosa. It elected Lesotho’s Prime Minister Ntsokoane Samuel Matekane as incoming chair of its security organ.

The bloc frames the Madagascar case as a matter for dialogue and mediation, in the language of its August 2026 communiqué. That approach keeps Madagascar inside the regional family while the AU suspension stands.

Other Regional Clubs and the Free-Trade Area

Madagascar is also one of 21 members of COMESA, a trade club that stretches from Egypt to Zimbabwe. It also looks out on the Indian Ocean, where several island neighbours sit close by.

Our guide Madagascar in the Indian Ocean walks through those island neighbours one by one.The Indian Ocean Rim Association, a 23-member group of countries around the ocean, lists Madagascar with the year 1997.That makes it a club in which the island sits beside Asian and Gulf states as well as African ones.The African Continental Free Trade Area aims to turn Africa into one market.By the end of September 2026, 50 of its 54 signatories had ratified it, but not Benin, Libya, South Sudan and Sudan.Madagascar is not among those four, so it has deposited its ratification.That puts it among the 50 countries that have formally joined the continental market.

Trade, Minerals and Who Buys from Madagascar

The World Bank names nickel, vanilla and clothing as the island’s main exports, and it says all three were subdued in 2026. The Bank says low-productivity sectors such as subsistence farming hold back growth.

In 2023 the major buyers of Madagascar’s exports were France, the United States, Japan, South Korea and China, says the World Bank’s trade data. None of those five is African, so for Madagascar the continent matters more as a hope than as a present customer.

That is why the free-trade pact matters to the island more as a long-term promise than as a current source of income. We follow the trade angle in the slump in vanilla and nickel and in the reopening of the mining register.

The World Bank’s Madagascar portfolio stood at US$4.5 billion across 16 national projects and five regional ones in September 2026. Roughly 44% of it, about US$2 billion, goes to infrastructure.

Inflation hit 8.6% in June 2026. The central bank then raised its policy rate by half a point to 12.5% in August 2026.

Alliances and Disputes Beyond Africa

France is the former colonial power and the partner most visible in the 2026 record. Randrianirina visited Paris from 23 to 25 February 2026 and met President Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée Palace on 24 February.

The joint communiqué says France backs the Refoundation and free, transparent elections on the agreed calendar. It lists about EUR 70 million (about US$78 million) of new French cooperation investment since October 2025, including the Volobe hydroelectric dam.

The communiqué also names port capacity at Antsiranana and blue-economy projects among its priorities. France sent 20 tonnes of aid and nearly 50 experts after the two cyclones of early 2026.

Both sides promised to continue security and defence cooperation. The communiqué does not mention the four disputed islands.

Those are the Scattered Islands of Glorieuses, Juan de Nova, Europa and Bassas da India. A UN General Assembly resolution of 12 December 1979 called them arbitrarily separated from Madagascar and invited France to negotiate their return.

Washington keeps a channel open as well, since US Deputy Secretary of State Landau met Prime Minister Rajaonarison in April 2026. Randrianirina’s stated line at the UN is neutrality, with development partners asked to invest.

How the Refoundation Shapes Its Standing

The authorities set a 24-month Refoundation period, which France’s joint communiqué of 24 February 2026 uses as its frame. The World Bank has drafted a two-year Engagement Note to back the new government’s priorities of basic services, governance and election preparation.

The government’s own record shows work on anti-corruption machinery. Its Council of Ministers created an anti-corruption body on 29 September 2026 and opened the new tax corruption platform on 9 October 2026.

On 6 October 2026 the Council of Ministers also discussed IMF governance and corruption issues, and ministers approved the 2027 budget guidelines on 21 October. The National Assembly opened its second ordinary session in late October 2026, so a parliament is sitting under the transition.

Each step feeds the continental question, because the AU and SADC both tie Madagascar’s standing to a return to constitutional order. Until that return is complete, Madagascar’s weight on the continent is bigger in numbers than in voice.

What It Means for US Readers

American goods imports from Madagascar were US$695.1 million in 2025, while US exports there were US$59.9 million, the US Census Bureau reports. That leaves a US trade deficit of US$635.2 million, so the island sells far more to Americans than it buys.

In the first eight months of 2026, US imports from Madagascar came to US$362.3 million and US exports to US$24.1 million. That is a deficit of US$338.2 million so far this year, the Census Bureau reports.

For investors, the main exposures are nickel, vanilla and clothing exports, which the World Bank calls subdued in 2026. The AU suspension and the transition raise political risk, and they also decide how fast outside lenders and partners can scale up.

Our guides Madagascar Explained and Madagascar in the Indian Ocean cover the political and regional background in more detail.

What Is Not Known

The only timetable on record is the 24-month period set for the Refoundation. The African Union communiqué ties the end of the suspension to restored constitutional order and gives no date.

The February 2026 joint communiqué with France does not mention the four islands. The 1979 UN call for negotiations therefore remains the reference point for the dispute.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Madagascar part of the African continent?

Politically, yes. It is an island off Mozambique, but the African Union lists it among its 55 member states and gives 25 May 1963 as its joining date.

Is Madagascar suspended from the African Union?

Yes. The AU’s Peace and Security Council suspended it from all AU activities on 15 October 2025, and the suspension lasts until constitutional order is restored.

How big is Madagascar compared with other African countries?

It ranks 15th of 54 in population, with 32.7 million people, and 30th of 52 in output, with US$19.6 billion. By income per person it ranks 50th of 52, at US$599.

Which regional blocs does Madagascar belong to?

It belongs to SADC and COMESA, and it is listed in the Indian Ocean Rim Association. It is also not among the four signatories yet to ratify the continental free-trade pact.

Who leads Madagascar in 2026?

Michaël Randrianirina holds the title President of the Refoundation of the Republic, and Mamitiana Rajaonarison is prime minister. The authorities set a 24-month transition after the military takeover of 14 October 2025.

Does Madagascar have a territorial dispute?

Yes. It claims four small islands around its coast that France holds: Glorieuses, Juan de Nova, Europa and Bassas da India. A UN General Assembly resolution of 12 December 1979 invited France to negotiate their return.

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators API, population and GDP for African countries, 2025, 2026-10-31; World Bank, Madagascar overview (growth, inflation, poverty, portfolio as of September 2026), 2026-10-31; World Bank WITS, Madagascar export partners 2023, 2026-10-31; African Union Peace and Security Council, communiqué of the 1306th meeting on Madagascar, 15 October 2025, 2025-10-15; African Union, list of member states, 2026-10-31; SADC, communiqué of the 46th Ordinary Summit, Durban, 17 August 2026, 2026-08-17; SADC, Extraordinary Summit of 21 October 2026, 2026-10-21; SADC, Madagascar member state page, 2026-10-31; COMESA, member states, 2026-10-31; Indian Ocean Rim Association, member states, 2026-10-31; Tralac, AfCFTA status of ratification, end-September 2026, 2026-09-30; UN General Assembly, 81st session, statement of Madagascar, 24 September 2026, 2026-09-24; UN General Assembly, resolution 34/91 of 12 December 1979 on the Malagasy islands, 1979-12-12; Élysée, joint communiqué of Presidents Macron and Randrianirina, 24 February 2026, 2026-02-24; Primature of Madagascar, news and Council of Ministers items, September to October 2026, 2026-10-27; US Census Bureau, trade in goods with Madagascar, 2025, 2026-10-31; US State Department, Madagascar country page (meeting of 20 April 2026), 2026-10-26.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief