What Lula’s Fourth Term Means for Chile and the Region

CHILE · BRAZIL

Brazil’s re-elected president will deal with a Chilean government from the opposite camp. This guide explains what is at stake for Chile and the region.

What Lula’s fourth term means for Chile starts with trade, because Brazil is Chile’s largest trading partner in Latin America. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the runoff on Sunday, 25 October 2026, and takes office on Tuesday, 5 January 2027.

For a US reader this is a test of how a conservative Chilean government deals with a left-wing Brazilian one. It also shows how South America’s biggest economy may position itself between Washington and its neighbours.

Related coverage includes the Rio Times report on Chile’s congratulations to Lula and the Brazil election 2026 results page. The Rio Times Chile page has more.

What Happened in Brazil on 25 October

Lula won 64,256,232 votes (51.79%) and Flávio Bolsonaro won 59,826,041 (48.21%), according to the results file of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The margin was 4,430,191 votes.

Senado Notícias reports that the TSE declared Lula elected at 21:08 with 97.69% of votes counted. Flávio had led the count from 19:46 until Lula regained the lead at 20:24.

Flávio led the first round on Sunday, 4 October, with 47.03% to Lula’s 45.16%. Senado Notícias calls Lula the first candidate to overturn a first-round result in a runoff.

Lula, born on 27 October 1945, turns 81 on Tuesday, and was president from 2003 to 2010 and since 2023. Agência Brasil says he has described this as his last term.

The inauguration is set for Tuesday, 5 January 2027, and Geraldo Alckmin returns as vice president. Chile’s Meganoticias said polls before the vote had given Flávio a narrow numerical lead.

What Chile’s Government Said

Kast wrote on X, shortly after 22:20 on Sunday, that he had just spoken with Lula and congratulated him on the result. BioBioChile and Cooperativa carried the post that evening.

He wrote that “Chile y Brasil tienen mucho futuro en común” (Chile and Brazil have a great shared future). He said both countries would work on an agenda covering economic integration and the fight against organised crime in the region.

Former president Gabriel Boric thanked Lula for never giving up the fight. Former president Michelle Bachelet wished Lula success in the new term, and former minister Jeannette Jara also congratulated him, Diario Financiero reported.

None of the sources reviewed gives details of the agenda, a date for talks or any trade measure. The congratulations are a statement of intent, not an agreement.

Why Brazil Matters for Chile’s Economy

Bilateral trade reached US$12.75 billion in 2025, Pauta and Swissinfo reported as Foreign Minister Francisco Pérez Mackenna began a Brazil visit. Brazil is Chile’s main trading partner in Latin America and its third worldwide.

Brazil is also the main foreign destination for Chilean investment, with strong Chilean presence in retail, forestry and services. In January to August 2026, trade totalled US$8.387 billion, Emol reported.

Chile exported US$3.512 billion to Brazil and imported US$4.876 billion in that period, a deficit of US$1.364 billion. Salmon and trout exports to Brazil reached US$682 million, and Brazil takes about 20% of Chile’s bottled wine by volume.

Brazilian visitors to Chile numbered 681,649 in 2025, up from 542,094 in 2019, Emol reported. Their spending was estimated at US$454.7 million, and the two countries signed a free trade agreement in 2018.

A Relationship Between Opposite Camps

Lula and Kast met in January 2026 at an economic forum in Panama, EFE reported. Lula had confirmed he would attend Kast’s inauguration but cancelled at the last minute because Flávio Bolsonaro was due to attend.

They met again on Tuesday, 30 June 2026, at the Mercosur summit in Asunción, Paraguay. Lula said they agreed to widen business ties to raise investment, with visits to Chile by Brazil’s ports and industry ministers.

Business meetings in aeronautics, science, defence and education were also planned, El Dinámo reported. Lula invited Kast to visit Brazil during 2026.

From Monday, 3 August, Pérez Mackenna began a three-day visit to Brazil, to meet Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira in Brasília. The agenda covered security, defence, mining, energy, science, artificial intelligence and the Bioceanic Road Corridor linking Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Chile.

One difference is open: Brazil backs Bachelet’s candidacy for UN Secretary General, while Chile’s government does not. Pérez Mackenna said it was not discussed when the presidents met, Pauta reported.

What Lula’s Fourth Term Means for the Region

Colombian President Gustavo Petro said Lula’s win stopped “fascism in Latin America”, Diario Financiero reported. CNN Chile says Lula’s ties with Argentina’s Javier Milei are cold, unlike his pragmatic approach with other conservatives.

Cooperativa adds that Lula and Kast both say they put national interests above ideology. They met twice in 2026, in Panama and in Paraguay.

In his victory speech, reported by Poder360, Lula said Brazil “does not accept being anyone’s backyard”. He also said he wants a Brazilian artificial intelligence and that tech firms must leave part of their data in Brazil.

He said little about Latin America or Mercosur, so his regional policy for the new term is still to be set. Mercosur’s EU trade deal was due to apply provisionally from 1 May 2026 for Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay.

The United States is the other factor, with a 25% tariff on Brazil announced on Wednesday, 15 July, and effective 22 July. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Lula had not negotiated in good faith, Semanario Universidad reported.

Semanario Universidad reported that Brazil would use its Reciprocity Law and go to the World Trade Organization; beef and coffee were exempt. Lula’s campaign promised trade with all countries, Agência Brasil reported.

What It Means for US Readers

Chilean companies with Brazil exposure are the clearest link. After Brazil’s first round, Emol reported, the Ibovespa rose more than 8% and LATAM Airlines gained 5.74% in Santiago.

The sources show no direct change for travellers, though 91.7% of Brazilian tourists in Chile go to Santiago. Background is in the Rio Times profile of President Kast.

See also the guides to Chile’s political players and its power structure. The Latin America Power Map ranks both countries, and the Santiago city page covers the capital.

What Is Not Known

The sources give no details of the agenda Kast announced or a date for his Brazil visit. They do not say who will lead Lula’s foreign and trade teams.

No statement from Flávio Bolsonaro on the result was found in the sources opened. Online headlines about a refusal to recognise it could not be confirmed from their text.

No Washington reaction to the result was found, and it is unclear whether the July tariff stays. The Emol trade and tourism figures come from that outlet alone and were not checked against ProChile.

What Comes Next

Lula takes office on Tuesday, 5 January 2027, and his cabinet will give the first signals on Chile. The invitation to Kast to visit Brazil remains open.

Any change in tariffs, Mercosur policy or the Bachelet question would need separate decisions. None has been announced in the sources reviewed.

Frequently Asked Questions

When does Lula’s fourth term begin?

Lula is due to be inaugurated on Tuesday, 5 January 2027. He won the runoff on Sunday, 25 October 2026, with 51.79% of the vote.

What did Chile’s president say about Lula’s win?

Kast said he phoned Lula and congratulated him. He wrote that Chile and Brazil have a great shared future and will work on economic integration and fighting organised crime.

How important is Brazil to Chile’s economy?

Bilateral trade was US$12.75 billion in 2025. Brazil is Chile’s largest Latin American trading partner and the main foreign destination for Chilean investment.

Do Lula and Kast agree politically?

No, Lula is on the left and Kast is conservative. Both say they put national interests first, and they differ on Bachelet’s UN candidacy, which Brazil backs and Chile does not.

Has Flávio Bolsonaro accepted the result?

The sources opened carry no statement from him. Reports that he rejects the result are unconfirmed, so this guide does not treat them as fact.

Sources: Senado Notícias, 25 October; Agência Brasil, 25 October; Poder360, victory speech; Meganoticias, 25 October; BioBioChile, Kast; Cooperativa, Kast; T13, Kast; Diario Financiero, reactions; EFE, Kast and Lula meeting; El Dinámo, 1 July; Pauta, 1 July; Pauta, 3 August; Swissinfo, 3 August; Emol, 6 October; Semanario Universidad, 16 July; Aduana News, EU and Mercosur; Greenberg Traurig, USTR tariff action (all accessed 26 October 2026).