Latvia Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026
LATVIA · POLITICS
Key Facts
- Result United List, the alliance led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, won 41 of 100 Saeima (parliament) seats on 3 October 2026, almost three times its 2022 total.
- Who holds power Kulbergs leads the government. President Edgars Rinkēvičs, the head of state, asked him to form the next one on 6 October.
- Coalition talks Formal talks began on 28 October. National Alliance (nationalist conservatives) and New Unity (centre-right) are the first-choice partners; together they would hold 58 seats.
- Next dates The new Saeima meets on Tuesday 3 November. A new cabinet then needs a confidence vote of at least 51 seats.
- Why it matters Latvia borders Russia and Belarus, and it is a NATO and euro-area member.
- Prediction markets Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC (the federal derivatives regulator), prices Andris Kulbergs at 87% to be prime minister after the election (28 October, 1:39 a.m. ET).
Who Holds Power Today
Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, a businessman and leader of the United List alliance, leads Latvia’s government. He took office on 28 May 2026 after Evika Siliņa, the New Unity prime minister, resigned on 14 May.
This guide is part of The Rio Times series on European politics. See also our guides to Spain and Germany’s AfD debate.
President Edgars Rinkēvičs, in office since 8 July 2023, is head of state. His role is largely ceremonial, but the constitution gives him one decisive power: he chooses who tries to form a government.
On 6 October 2026, after consulting all six parties that won seats, Rinkēvičs asked Kulbergs to do exactly that. Kulbergs therefore holds both the job and the mandate, but he still needs a parliamentary majority to keep it.
How the System Works
Latvia is a parliamentary republic. The Saeima has 100 members elected by proportional representation, and a party needs 5% of the vote to enter.
The president is chosen by parliament, not by voters. The prime minister and cabinet need the Saeima’s confidence, so any government must command at least 51 seats.
Voters last went to the polls on Saturday 3 October 2026 to elect the 15th Saeima. Turnout was 51.79%, the lowest in Latvia’s modern history and down from 59.41% in 2022.
The new parliament holds its first sitting on Tuesday 3 November, when the sitting government formally hands back its mandate. The next regular election is due in autumn 2030, four years after this one.
The Election Result, Seat by Seat
United List won 41 seats with about 35% of the vote, almost three times its 2022 total of 15. It is an alliance that includes the Latvian Green Party, the Latvian Association of Regions and the Liepāja Party.
Latvia First, a populist list, took 17 seats. Sovereign Power and the Alliance of Young Latvians, another populist list, won 15.
National Alliance, a nationalist conservative party, and the Progressives, a liberal party, each won 10. New Unity, the centre-right party of former prime minister Siliņa, fell to 7.
Six forces entered parliament in total. No other party cleared the 5% bar.
The Fight to Build a Majority
Kulbergs announced that formal talks would open on Wednesday 28 October with the National Alliance and New Unity, his partners in the outgoing four-party coalition. Both were part of the cabinet he has led since May.
United List with those two would hold 58 seats, a comfortable majority. United List with National Alliance alone would hold exactly 51, the bare minimum.
The arithmetic matters, because United List and New Unity together would hold only 48 seats, short of a majority. National Alliance is therefore the partner Kulbergs cannot do without.
A new cabinet needs the Saeima’s confidence vote, so the talks must produce at least 51 seats. The cabinet that Kulbergs led since May included the Union of Greens and Farmers, a rural-based party, which is not named as a first-choice partner this time.
Where Latvia Stands on the EU, NATO and Russia
Latvia is a member of both the European Union and NATO, and it shares borders with Russia and Belarus. Latvia has backed Ukraine with military and financial aid since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
A law passed by the Saeima in March 2026 requires defence spending of at least 5% of GDP from 2027. That target matches the level that Washington has urged on NATO allies.
Kulbergs has also promised tougher scrutiny of two costly state projects: airBaltic, the national airline, and Rail Baltica, a railway link to Poland. The railway is meant to connect the Baltic states with western Europe.
Economy and the 2027 Budget
The European Commission’s spring 2026 forecast put Latvia’s budget deficit at 3.3% of GDP in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. The jump reflects the rise in defence spending.
The 2027 budget is the first test for any new cabinet. Whoever governs will have to balance defence, cost-cutting and promises to voters.
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the United States by the CFTC (the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal derivatives regulator), prices Andris Kulbergs at 87% to be Latvia’s prime minister after the election. Five other names sit at 4% each, and 25,744 contracts have traded.
These prices are bets, not polls, and they were read on 28 October at 1:39 a.m. ET. They show what traders expect, not what the Saeima will decide.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
For investors, Latvia is a small euro-area economy whose bonds and companies trade in euros, so the main risk is policy, not currency. A stable majority that keeps budget discipline would reassure lenders, while a fragile one could delay the 2027 budget.
For security, Latvia is a frontline NATO state that has legally committed to the 5% of GDP defence goal Washington asks of allies from 2027. American travellers face no new restrictions from the election, and the border with Belarus remains a security-sensitive area.
What Is Not Known
It is not known which parties will finally join the coalition, or whether talks with National Alliance and New Unity will succeed. Nor is it known whether Kulbergs will bring in a fourth party, or how ministries will be shared.
It is also unclear how long the talks will take, and what the 2027 budget will contain.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Latvia’s prime minister in 2026?
Andris Kulbergs of the United List alliance has led the government since 28 May 2026. President Rinkēvičs asked him on 6 October to form the next government.
Who is Latvia’s president?
Edgars Rinkēvičs, in office since 8 July 2023. The Saeima elects him, and his role is largely ceremonial apart from naming the person who forms a government.
How many seats did each party win in October 2026?
United List 41, Latvia First 17, Sovereign Power/Alliance of Young Latvians 15, National Alliance 10, the liberal Progressives 10 and New Unity 7, out of 100.
When will Latvia have a new government?
Not yet fixed. The new Saeima meets on 3 November, and a cabinet needs a confidence vote with at least 51 votes.
When is the next Latvian election?
Saeima elections are held every four years, so the next regular one is due in autumn 2030.
Sources: President of Latvia; Central Election Commission of Latvia; Parliament of Latvia (Saeima); Cabinet of Ministers of Latvia.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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