Latin America Weekly Economic Overview (Ex-Brazil & Mexico) – Sep 8–12, 2025

Latin American markets navigated mixed macroeconomic signals during the week of September 8–12, with inflation trends easing in Chile and Argentina, while monetary authorities in Chile and Peru opted for cautious rate holds or modest cuts.

In Chile, August inflation data underscored a cooling trend. Core CPI fell 0.2% month-on-month, reversing July’s 0.6% increase, while headline CPI was flat after a 0.9% rise previously.

External accounts showed copper exports rising to $4.16 billion, up from July’s $3.99 billion, though overall exports softened to $7.86 billion.

Imports contracted more sharply to $6.95 billion from $8.21 billion, lifting the trade balance into a $910 million surplus, compared with a deficit of $60 million the month before.

The central bank kept its policy rate steady at 4.75%, signaling stability amid declining price pressures.

Latin America Weekly Economic Overview (Ex-Brazil & Mexico) – Sep 8–12, 2025

Argentina delivered weaker industrial and consumer signals. July industrial production fell 1.1% year-on-year, contrasting with a robust 9.4% expansion in June.

Inflation moderated further, with August CPI up 1.9% month-on-month and 33.6% year-on-year, down from 37.6% in July.

The Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI consumer sentiment index slipped to 43.91 in September, from 44.24 in August, reflecting subdued confidence.

Peru saw its central bank cut the policy rate to 4.25% from 4.50%, a modest easing step intended to support domestic demand as inflation remains contained.

External balances narrowed, with July’s trade surplus at $2.1 billion versus $2.52 billion in June, suggesting softer export momentum.

Overall, the week highlighted divergent pressures across the region: Chile’s disinflation combined with improving trade balance, Argentina’s persistent slowdown tempered by lower inflation, and Peru’s proactive monetary support in response to weakening external surpluses.

The interplay of easing price growth, shifting trade flows, and selective monetary adjustments will shape investor sentiment and policy expectations through the final quarter of 2025.

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