KENYA · POLITICS
A new Kenyan opinion poll puts President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna level at 31% each for the 2027 presidential race. TIFA Research, a Nairobi polling firm, released the first findings of its November 2026 national survey.
Sifuna, a senator for Nairobi and an opposition figure, stood at 15% in June. Kenya is a US major non-NATO ally, a US designation for close partners outside NATO that Kenya received in 2024, so its next election matters to Washington.
Ruto and Sifuna have already clashed in public, as our coverage of the dispute over the planned Lamu oil refinery shows. TIFA calls the new numbers a snapshot, not a prediction.
Key Facts
- Who TIFA Research, a Nairobi polling firm, surveyed 2,036 adults in all 47 counties.
- What Ruto 31%, Sifuna 31%, four named rivals between 1% and 9%, and 15% undecided.
- Margin of error Plus or minus 2.16%, so Ruto and Sifuna are level.
- Change In June, Ruto stood at 24% and Sifuna at 15%.
- Caution TIFA says this is a snapshot, not a prediction.
What the Poll Found
Asked whom they would like to win the 2027 presidential election, 31% named Ruto and 31% named Sifuna. Because the margin of error is plus or minus 2.16%, neither man is ahead.
Next came Kalonzo Musyoka, a former vice president, at 9%, and Fred Matiang’i, a former interior minister, at 5%. Rigathi Gachagua, a former deputy president, took 4%, and Ndindi Nyoro, another presidential hopeful, 1%.
Another 15% were undecided, 2% chose none and 2% gave no response. TIFA interviewed 2,036 adults face to face in their homes between 26 October and 5 November 2026, and paid for the survey itself.
How the Race Has Moved
TIFA’s June 2026 survey, taken from 13 to 22 June, had Ruto at 24% and Sifuna at 15%. Matiang’i then had 14%, Kalonzo 13% and Gachagua 7%, with 20% undecided.
TIFA says Sifuna’s rise coincided mainly with falling support for other opposition hopefuls. Ruto’s own support also rose compared with earlier surveys.
Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) stood at 25%, up from 17% in June, while the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a major party, fell to 10% from 20%. The Linda Mwananchi Movement, an opposition grouping, reached 17%, and 26% of respondents backed no party.
Why It Matters
The key mechanism is vote-splitting. Kenya’s opposition is divided, and a united ticket would pool support that is now spread across several names.
By our own sum, the four other named hopefuls hold 19% of all respondents, so Sifuna plus those four total exactly 50%, which is not more than half. A first-round win needs more than half of all votes cast, plus at least 25% of votes in more than half of the 47 counties, so a united opposition would sit right on the first requirement.
That sum is a thought experiment, not a forecast, because it assumes every backer would follow a joint ticket. The 15% undecided and the margin of error make the outcome far from certain.
The Broad-Based Government, Ruto’s power-sharing arrangement with part of the opposition, now has 32% support and 43% opposition. In June it stood at 30% support against 52% opposed.
Opposition Unity and Running Mates
Among opposition supporters, 57% say it is very likely that the leaders of the two main opposition camps will unite ahead of the 2027 election. On timing, 45% want a joint ticket announced in January to March 2027, 35% before the end of 2026 and 16% in April to June 2027.
Among those who want Ruto to win, 55% prefer Deputy President Kithure Kindiki as his running mate. Gladys Wanga, governor of Homa Bay county, is next at 12%.
What It Means for You
For US readers, the race will shape ties with a major non-NATO ally, a status that carries defence and security cooperation benefits but no mutual defence pledge. A close and uncertain contest also means policy risk for firms that do business in Kenya.
For Kenyan voters, the poll suggests a two-sided race that depends on opposition unity. Readers should treat it as one snapshot rather than a forecast.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether Sifuna will run, or for which party or ticket. Nor is it known which opposition leaders will actually unite.
TIFA notes that events continued after fieldwork ended. Opinion may therefore keep shifting as alliances form.
What to Watch Next
Watch whether the opposition announces a joint ticket, which 35% of its supporters want before the end of 2026 and 45% in January to March 2027. Any such deal would test the 50% line in our sum.
Fresh polls will show whether the 31% tie holds. More is on our Kenya page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads the new Kenya poll?
President William Ruto and Senator Edwin Sifuna are tied at 31% each. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.16%, so neither is ahead.
How many people did TIFA survey?
TIFA Research interviewed 2,036 Kenyan adults in all 47 counties between 26 October and 5 November 2026. Interviews were face to face in households.
How has support changed since June?
In June, Ruto had 24% and Sifuna 15%. TIFA says Sifuna’s rise coincided mainly with falling support for other opposition hopefuls.
Does the poll predict the 2027 result?
No, TIFA calls the results a snapshot, not a prediction. Events continued after fieldwork ended, and 15% were undecided.
Sources
- TIFA Research, November 2026 first release: tifaresearch.com
- TIFA Research, June 2026 release: tifaresearch.com
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error