Ibovespa Rises On Wall Street Tailwind And Fresh 2026 Election Chatter

Key Points

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1. Stocks gained as softer U.S. inflation revived rate-cut talk and lifted global risk appetite.

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2. Brazil’s Central Bank pushed back on “reading signals,” keeping Selic uncertainty in play.

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3. Political speculation about a market-friendly 2026 field added a local bid, even as Lula’s approval picture stayed fragile.

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\nBrazilian equities ended Thursday stronger, with the Ibovespa up 0.38% at 157,923.34 points, tracking a firm U.S. session and renewed domestic political speculation.
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\nThe dollar was essentially flat at R$ 5.5237. Trading turnover on B3 was about R$ 26.6 billion ($5 billion). The global driver was straightforward.
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\nU.S. equities rose after inflation prints came in softer than expected, nudging markets toward a slightly higher probability of a Fed cut in early 2026. The Dow added 0.14%, the S&P 500 gained 0.79%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.38%.
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\nIn Europe, the Bank of England cut rates to 3.75% from 4%, while the ECB held at 2%. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.96%. Asia was mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei down 1.03% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 0.12%.
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\nAt home, attention stayed on the 2026 race, after comments from a major Centrão leader suggested a São Paulo governor bid was not truly off the table, depending on how another right-leaning pre-candidacy polls.
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\nThat kind of uncertainty can be destabilizing. But investors tend to prefer clearer, reform-tilted alternatives. Monetary policy messaging also mattered.
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Ibovespa Cools as Rate Uncertainty Trumps Flows

\nCentral Bank chief Gabriel Galípolo complained that “agents are trying to find hints in a text that gives no hints,” underscoring that the Selic path is not pre-committed for the next meetings. That ambiguity kept rate-sensitive names uneven.
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\nTop winners on the day were Brava Energia (+6.16%), Suzano (+5.74%), Klabin (+2.31%), PetroReconcavo (+2.08%), and BTG Pactual (+1.95%).
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\nBrava was supported by deal chatter and by management pointing to a $550 million 2026 capex plan, plus ongoing speculation involving Eneva.
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\nTop losers were Direcional (-3.48%), Natura (-2.59%), Assaí (-2.57%), Hapvida (-1.93%), and MRV (-1.74%). Direcional fell despite a supportive broker view, suggesting profit-taking.
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\nTwo flow gauges were active. BOVA11 closed at 154.86 on roughly 6.54 million shares. Offshore, EWZ closed at $31.17 on about 41.1 million shares, with net inflows cited near $139 million over one month and $1.81 billion over one year.
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\nTechnically, momentum cooled. On a 4-hour view, RSI sat near 43.4 with a negative MACD, while the daily RSI hovered around 51.6. Weekly trend remains constructive near 66.5.
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\nTraders are watching support around 156,074 and resistance near 158,162 and 159,130–159,273. February 2026 Ibovespa futures near 161,300 also signal a notable premium.

For the full picture, see our Brazil Elections 2026: Complete Guide.

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