Copper Price Holds at $5.12 Amid Volatility and Tight Supply
Copper traded at $5.12 per pound this morning, holding firm after a volatile session on July 1. Official LME and COMEX data confirm this price, with supply tightness and shifting macroeconomic signals driving the action.
The market’s core narrative remains supply constraints, with LME inventories dropping to 90,625 metric tons, as reported by Shanghai Metal Market. This level represents a sharp year-on-year decline and leaves the market vulnerable to further disruptions.
On July 1, copper prices swung between $5.08 and $5.19 per pound. Early in the session, sellers pressed prices lower, but buyers stepped in as the dollar weakened and physical supply signals tightened.
The price action formed a wide range, reflecting both uncertainty and strong underlying demand. LME cash and three-month contracts continued to trade in backwardation.
Spot copper is commanding a premium of over $300 per ton to futures, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. This structure signals immediate supply is scarce, and buyers are willing to pay up for prompt delivery.
The technical picture on the four-hour chart shows copper consolidating above key moving averages. The 50-period moving average provided support near $5.08, while prices repeatedly tested resistance at $5.15 and $5.19.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered around 56, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD histogram showed declining bullish momentum, while Bollinger Bands narrowed, suggesting reduced volatility after the previous session’s swings.
The daily chart confirms the broader uptrend. Copper remains above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the RSI at 65.7. This reading approaches overbought territory but does not signal an immediate reversal.
The MACD remains positive, though the histogram has flattened, reflecting the market’s pause after recent gains. Price action sits near the upper Bollinger Band, showing strong momentum but also highlighting the risk of a pullback if new buyers do not emerge.
Fundamental drivers continue to favor higher prices. The International Energy Agency projects a persistent supply deficit, with mine output failing to keep pace with demand growth.
US tariff speculation has accelerated shipments to American ports, draining inventories in other regions. Chinese smelters face raw material shortages, forcing them to pay higher premiums for concentrates.
These factors have combined to create a historic backwardation and reinforce the market’s bullish structure. Macroeconomic factors also played a role.
The US dollar’s continued decline made copper more attractive for buyers using other currencies. However, uncertainty over potential new tariffs and global economic growth tempers enthusiasm, keeping some traders on the sidelines.
Copper’s price action over the last 24 hours reflects a market caught between strong fundamentals and near-term caution. The technical setup points to consolidation, with support at $5.08 and resistance at $5.19.
Until new catalysts emerge, prices are likely to remain range-bound, with supply tightness and macro signals dictating the next move.
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Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Commodities — Live Market Board
+1.98%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,077 | +1.67% | +19.85% | 4,010 | 4,088 | 4,003 | 108,103 |
| SILVER | 59.14 | +4.12% | +51.25% | 56.80 | 59.55 | 56.38 | 34,013 |
| BRENT | 90.99 | +1.98% | +31.47% | 89.22 | 91.97 | 87.88 | 38,522 |
| WTI | 84.29 | +1.27% | +25.43% | 83.23 | 85.03 | 81.39 | 238,495 |
| COPPER | 6.52 | +3.57% | +16.28% | 6.30 | 6.57 | 6.33 | 53,949 |
| LITHIUM | 69.15 | +3.33% | +62.71% | 66.92 | 69.35 | 68.35 | 239,165 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +65.48% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| SOY | 1,222 | -0.31% | +20.42% | 1,226 | 1,230 | 1,217 | 125,914 |
| CORN | 475.25 | +5.73% | +17.71% | 449.50 | 476.50 | 469.00 | 157,933 |
| WHEAT | 678.50 | +0.67% | +25.13% | 674.00 | 679.00 | 665.25 | 57,577 |
| COFFEE | 322.80 | -3.47% | +8.60% | 334.40 | 335.40 | 320.75 | 14,600 |
| SUGAR | 14.90 | +0.54% | -8.98% | 14.82 | 14.97 | 14.76 | 45,002 |
| COCOA | 5,606 | +1.56% | -31.27% | 5,520 | 5,733 | 5,405 | 19,464 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 142.30 | -3.46% | -56.52% | 147.40 | 149.90 | 141.50 | 536 |
| COTTON | 80.03 | +3.44% | +20.27% | 77.37 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 9,915 |
| BEEF | 223.05 | -1.53% | -0.97% | 226.52 | 224.68 | 221.98 | 19,662 |
| CATTLE | 344.88 | -2.02% | +5.27% | 352.00 | 348.05 | 343.20 | 7,785 |
| USD/BRL | 5.07 | -0.44% | -9.15% | 5.09 | 5.09 | 5.07 | — |
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