Colombia Eyes US Midterms on Deportations

COLOMBIA · US POLITICS

Americans vote on Tuesday, 3 November, in midterm elections that decide who controls Congress. Colombia is watching because deportations, security aid and Venezuela policy all run through Washington.

Americans vote on Tuesday, 3 November, in midterm elections, the national vote held halfway through a president’s four-year term. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and about one third of the 100 Senate seats are on the ballot.

Colombia is watching because Congress shapes the immigration, security and trade policies that govern its ties with the United States. The vote also matters for Venezuela, Colombia’s neighbour, where Washington now deals directly with the acting government.

Colombia’s New Government and Washington

Abelardo de la Espriella, a conservative, took office as Colombia’s president on 7 August. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met him in Barranquilla on Tuesday, 8 September, according to the Colombian Foreign Ministry.

The State Department says Rubio and Foreign Minister Omar Bula signed two arrangements that day, on critical minerals and nuclear power. The minerals framework commits both governments to identify and finance mining and processing projects within six months.

Deportation Flights to Colombia

Colombia has received people deported from the United States on regular flights, and officials have said the arrangement would continue. The government in Bogotá treats them as returnees entitled to state support.

Current flight schedules and deportation totals under the new government could not be confirmed in an official release. Readers should treat any figure from the midterm campaign as unverified.

Venezuela and the Court Fight

On Wednesday, 1 April, the US Treasury’s sanctions office removed Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s acting president, from its sanctions list. The State Department says US forces took her predecessor, Nicolás Maduro, into custody on 3 January.

Temporary Protected Status, or TPS, is a US programme that shields people from deportation when their home country is in crisis. On Monday, 5 October, the US Supreme Court vacated a Ninth Circuit ruling in the Venezuelan TPS case and sent it back.

On Friday, 30 October, the Ninth Circuit appeals court denied the government’s request to stay a district court order, the plaintiffs say. They add that Venezuelan protections would return on Friday, 6 November, unless the Supreme Court steps in.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, Democrats were priced at 94.5% to control the House at 2:50 a.m. ET on Monday, 2 November. That contract has traded about US$21.0 million, and the full House market about US$37.4 million.

For the Senate, Democrats were priced at 72.5%, with about US$8.0 million traded on that contract. The full Senate market has traded about US$15.8 million, and these are bets, not polls.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

A different party in Congress can change budgets and pass laws. Deportation flights, Venezuela licences and protected status are decided by agencies and courts, not on election night.

Colombian and Venezuelan families in the United States should watch notices from the Department of Homeland Security and court rulings. Travellers should check the US State Department advisory for Colombia before booking.

Related Rio Times reports include Democrats Lead US Midterm Polls and Odds and Venezuelan Deportation Shield Nears Return. More is in the guides Foreign Powers and Investors in Colombia and the new government, the Colombia hub and Bogotá.

What Is Not Known

A Colombian analysis of the midterms published on 31 October could not be opened, so none of its claims are used here. No Colombian official has said how the government would respond to a Democratic House.

The text of the Ninth Circuit order was not read directly, so that point rests on the plaintiffs’ statement. Weekly flight schedules and deportation totals for Colombia were not found in an official release.

What Comes Next

Markets favour Democrats in both chambers, giving them oversight but not the White House. The new Congress meets in January 2027, so any policy change would follow later.

Frequently Asked Questions

When are the US midterm elections?

Voters go to the polls on Tuesday, 3 November 2026. All 435 House seats and about one third of the Senate are up.

Why does Colombia care about the US midterms?

Congress shapes immigration, aid and trade policy that affects Colombians and Venezuelans. Colombia also relies on Washington for security cooperation and trade ties.

Will deportation flights to Colombia stop?

The midterms do not change flight schedules by themselves. Flights are run by the executive branch, so a new Congress would need a law to change them.

What is Venezuelan TPS?

Temporary Protected Status shields people from deportation when their home country is in crisis. Venezuelan holders are in a court fight, and a Ninth Circuit ruling on 30 October favoured them, the plaintiffs say.

Sources: Colombian Foreign Ministry, notice on the Rubio visit, 6 September 2026; US State Department, release on the critical minerals and civil nuclear arrangements, 8 September 2026, and country page on Nicolás Maduro Moros; US Treasury OFAC, Venezuela-related Designation Removal, 1 April 2026; US Supreme Court, docket No. 26-48, Mullin v. National TPS Alliance, order of 5 October 2026; National TPS Alliance, press releases of 6 and 30 October 2026; Polymarket, House control market and Senate control market (data of 2 November 2026, 2:50 a.m. ET) (all accessed 2 November 2026).