50% Import Reliance Fuels Colombia’s Fuel-Supply Time Bomb
Energy: Bogotá
Key Facts
—Warning. The Asociación Colombiana del Petróleo y Gas (ACP) says Colombia faces a fuel-supply “time bomb” as domestic output falls and import reliance climbs.
—Imports. The ACP projects imported gasoline could rise from about 43% of supply in 2026 to roughly 50% by 2030 as refining lags demand.
—El Niño. A strong El Niño is expected to lift diesel demand by about 30% in the second half of 2026, because thermal plants burn diesel when reservoirs run low.
—Fiscal strain. Analysts warn the fuel-price stabilization fund (FEPC) deficit could approach COP 6 trillion (about US$1.5 billion) by year-end under current subsidies.
—Policy. Fracking remains banned under President Gustavo Petro; the ACP urges faster action on offshore and unconventional gas, options that need years and heavy investment.
Colombia’s oil-and-gas association has warned of a fuel-supply time bomb, projecting rising gasoline and diesel imports, an El Niño-driven demand surge and a widening subsidy deficit that could strain the economy.
What the ACP Warned
The Asociación Colombiana del Petróleo y Gas (ACP), the trade group for Colombia’s oil-and-gas industry, has warned that the country is sitting on a fuel-supply “time bomb.” In a sector report released in early August 2026, it argued that falling domestic production, thinning reserves and rising demand are pushing Colombia toward heavier reliance on imported fuels.
The association frames the risk as structural rather than a passing shortage. Mature oil fields are declining, exploration has slowed, and refining capacity is not keeping pace with a vehicle fleet and power system that consume more fuel each year. Left unaddressed, the ACP says, the gap between what Colombia produces and what it burns will keep widening.
Colombia has historically been a net energy exporter, so a shift toward importing gasoline, diesel and jet fuel would mark a notable change. It would expose the country more directly to global price swings, exchange-rate moves and shipping disruptions.
The Numbers Behind the Alarm
The ACP projects that imported gasoline could rise from roughly 43% of domestic supply in 2026 to about 50% by 2030 if current trends hold. Diesel and jet-fuel imports are also expected to grow, adding to the country’s fuel bill and its exposure to international markets.
Those projections rest on a simple mismatch: consumption is climbing toward record levels while national output of both crude and natural gas is trending down. Colombia’s refineries can cover only part of demand, so the balance is increasingly filled by purchases abroad.
For a foreign reader, the concern is less about a single figure than the direction of travel. A country that once counted oil among its top exports is on a path to import a growing share of the refined fuels its economy runs on.
El Niño and the Diesel Squeeze
The nearer-term pressure comes from the weather. The ACP and other analysts expect a strong El Niño to lift diesel demand by about 30% in the second half of 2026 compared with a normal period. Diesel is the electricity system’s fuel of last resort.
When El Niño dries out reservoirs, hydroelectric generation falls and thermal plants step in, many of them burning diesel. That raises fuel consumption exactly when supply is tightest, and it heightens the risk of power rationing if deliveries fall short. Some estimates cited in the reporting put diesel’s share of electricity generation as high as 9% in an extreme dry spell.
The combination — higher structural imports plus a seasonal demand spike — is what the industry means by a “time bomb.” The timing, not just the trend, is the danger.
The Fracking Question
Colombia’s longer-term options are contested. Under President Gustavo Petro, hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, remains banned, and the government has favored renewables while limiting new oil-and-gas exploration rounds. The ACP has pressed for measures to shore up supply reliability, but the current administration’s stance on unconventional drilling has not changed.
Proposals to fast-track fracking pilots and reverse the ban have featured mainly in Colombia’s political debate ahead of a change in government, rather than in sitting policy. The ACP itself stresses that unconventional deposits would need new regulation and, even then, at least five years and heavy investment before yielding meaningful volumes.
Offshore gas is the other option often cited. Deep-water projects, some led by state-controlled Ecopetrol, could add supply but require large capital outlays and timelines of up to a decade. Neither fracking nor offshore, in other words, offers a quick fix for the immediate squeeze.
Fiscal Pressure and the Subsidy Fund
Money is the other half of the problem. Colombia cushions pump prices through the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund, known by its Spanish initials FEPC. When international prices or the exchange rate move against the country, the fund absorbs the difference, and the gap becomes a fiscal liability.
Analysts cited in the reporting warn the accumulated FEPC deficit could approach COP 6 trillion (about US$1.5 billion) by the end of 2026 under current subsidy levels. Per-gallon support has been estimated in the thousands of pesos for diesel, a cost that grows as import reliance rises and the peso’s value shifts.
That fiscal strain limits the government’s room to maneuver. Cushioning consumers is politically popular but expensive, while letting prices rise carries its own social and inflationary risks.
Why It Matters and What Comes Next
For households and businesses, the immediate stakes are price stability and, in a worst case, the reliability of electricity during a dry El Niño. For the government, the challenge is balancing subsidy costs against the risk of shortages and against long-term energy policy.
The ACP’s message is that decisions taken now — on refining, storage, import logistics and exploration — will determine how exposed Colombia is over the next several years. The association is urging faster action to secure supply, while the government weighs those calls against its climate and fiscal priorities.
What is clear is that the debate has moved from the abstract to the concrete. With demand rising, production falling and a strong El Niño looming, Colombia’s fuel-supply math has become one of the country’s more pressing economic questions for 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fuel-supply “time bomb” the ACP is warning about?
The ACP, Colombia’s oil-and-gas association, says falling domestic production and rising demand are pushing the country toward heavier fuel imports, with imported gasoline potentially reaching about 50% of supply by 2030.
Why is El Niño part of the problem?
A strong El Niño is expected to raise diesel demand by about 30% in the second half of 2026, because thermal plants burn more diesel when drought cuts hydroelectric generation, tightening supply just as demand peaks.
Is Colombia fast-tracking fracking?
No. Under President Gustavo Petro fracking remains banned. Proposals to fast-track fracking pilots have featured in political debate, while the ACP stresses that unconventional and offshore gas would need years and heavy investment.
Sources
El Espectador · La República · Infobae · ACP · Colombia One
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Sources: ACP (Asociación Colombiana del Petróleo y Gas), El Espectador, La República, Infobae and Colombia One.
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