Oil Tops US$106 as Iran Warns Its War Could Spread to the Indian Ocean

Brent crude tops US$106 as Iran, at war with the U.S. and Israel, warns the war could reach the Indian Ocean. The threat widens the risk for shipping routes that link Gulf oil, East Africa and Asia.

Brent crude, the benchmark for most of the world’s traded oil, rose above US$106 a barrel on Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026. An adviser to Iran’s supreme leader warned the war could reach the Indian Ocean, and Yemen’s Houthis fired missiles at Saudi Arabia.

Iran’s warning and the oil market

The warning came from Yahya Rahim Safavi, a military adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. The former Revolutionary Guards commander spoke in a video released by Iran’s Fars news agency.

Safavi said the conflict had already spread from the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. In response to further attacks, he said, the front could expand to “the Indian Ocean and perhaps beyond.”

Front-month November Brent futures settled at US$106.60 a barrel, up US$3.52 or 3.4%, Reuters reported. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, settled at US$94.61, up 2.7%.

Both benchmarks had been up about 5% at their session highs after the Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia. They eased after reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators were exploring a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent had settled even higher, at US$108.75, on Sept. 15, after drone attacks shut Saudi Arabia’s main pipeline to the Red Sea. Its wartime peak came on April 30, when it briefly touched US$126.41, the highest in four years.

Why the Indian Ocean matters for Africa

The Indian Ocean is not an abstract geography for African economies. Its shipping lanes connect Gulf crude to East African ports, South Asia and the wider Asia-bound trade corridor.

The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are already flashpoints in this war. Adding the Indian Ocean would widen the risk zone for fuel importers from Kenya to Mozambique.

Each time Brent crude tops US$100, import bills rise quickly for African refiners and fuel distributors. Exporters such as Nigeria and Angola earn more, though higher crude prices also lift the cost of any refined fuel they import.

No breakthrough yet at the United Nations

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian blamed the United States and Israel for global instability in his UN General Assembly speech on Wednesday. U.S.-Iran talks on the sidelines in New York showed little sign of progress by Thursday.

Later on Thursday, reports that negotiators were exploring a phased reopening of Hormuz trimmed oil’s gains. The reports described talks, not an agreement.

Without a diplomatic off-ramp, the oil market stays exposed to headline risk. Statements from Tehran, Washington or Tel Aviv can move prices by several dollars in a single session.

For investors and professionals watching African markets, the signal is clear. Energy costs are now tied to a conflict whose geography could expand, and the usual assumptions about shipping security no longer hold.

The great-power contest and energy flows

The current escalation fits a broader pattern of competition over maritime chokepoints and energy flows. Control of Hormuz, the Red Sea and possibly the Indian Ocean is central to how great powers project influence.

This is the same logic that drives the new scramble for African resources and routes. The Rio Times has tracked this shift in its pillar on Africa: The New Scramble, where energy security and critical minerals intersect.

For African governments, the lesson is uncomfortable. When distant powers fight over shipping lanes, African economies absorb the cost through fuel prices, freight rates and inflation.

Who gains and who loses

Oil-exporting African states may see a short-term revenue boost from higher Brent prices. Nigeria, Angola, Libya and Algeria price their crude against Dated Brent, the physical benchmark, so a sustained rise lifts export earnings.

Oil-importing African economies face the opposite pressure. Higher crude prices widen current-account deficits, weaken currencies and push up the cost of transport, electricity and food distribution.

The net effect across the continent is uneven. Some treasuries gain, many households lose, and the divergence between exporters and importers widens with every dollar added to the benchmark.

What to watch next

The immediate question is whether the United States or Israel strikes Iran again, which Safavi said could widen the war. His warning was conditional, but the market has already begun to price the risk.

The reported talks on a phased Hormuz reopening are the main diplomatic test. A deal could pull Brent back below US$100, where it closed on Sept. 22, while new strikes could push it higher.

For African importers, hedging fuel exposure where possible is the obvious defence. For exporters, the windfall is real but fragile, because a wider war would disrupt the lanes that carry their crude.

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