Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for March 21, 2025
Brazilian markets face a crucial session today, driven by domestic fiscal data and global economic cues impacting currency, investor sentiment, and performance.
Brazil’s Federal Tax Revenue (Feb) at 9:30 AM (BRT) will reveal fiscal health, while the CFTC BRL speculative net positions at 3:30 PM (BRT) will gauge real sentiment.
Globally, FOMC Member Williams’ speech at 9:05 AM (ET) and the U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count at 1:00 PM (ET) will influence risk appetite and commodity prices.
The EU Leaders Summit at 6:00 AM (ET) and Consumer Confidence (Mar) at 11:00 AM (ET) will affect trade channels.
These events shape Brazil’s currency stability and export outlook amid inflation and monetary tightening.
Economic Agenda for March 21, 2025
Brazil
9:30 AM – Federal Tax Revenue (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. This data provides insights into Brazil’s fiscal performance and tax collection capacity.
3:30 PM – CFTC BRL speculative net positions: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 41.9K. This shows market sentiment toward the Brazilian real through futures positioning data.
United States
9:05 AM – FOMC Member Williams Speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams will deliver remarks that may provide insights into U.S. monetary policy direction.
1:00 PM – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: Actual TBD, previous 487. This weekly count indicates oil drilling activity and future production potential.
1:00 PM – U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: Actual TBD, previous 592. This broader measure includes both oil and gas rigs operating in the U.S.
3:30 PM – CFTC Crude Oil, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 speculative net positions: These reports show market positioning in key commodity and equity futures markets.
Eurozone
6:00 AM – EU Leaders Summit: European Council meeting where leaders discuss key policy issues affecting the bloc, including competitiveness and Ukraine support.
11:00 AM – Consumer Confidence (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -13.6. This indicator measures consumer sentiment across the eurozone economies.
3:30 PM – CFTC EUR speculative net positions: Actual TBD, previous 13.1K. This data reflects market sentiment toward the euro through futures positioning.
Other European Markets
German Buba Mauderer Speaks: Comments from German Bundesbank official on monetary policy and economic outlook.
3:30 PM – CFTC GBP speculative net positions: Actual TBD, previous 29.2K. This shows market sentiment toward the British pound.
Canada
8:30 AM – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan): Actual TBD, consensus -0.1%, previous 2.7%. This data tracks retail sales excluding automobiles, providing insights into consumer spending patterns.
8:30 AM – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan): Actual TBD, consensus -0.4%, previous 2.5%. This broader measure reflects overall consumer spending and economic activity.
8:30 AM – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus 0.0%, previous -0.1%. This tracks changes in new home prices across Canada.
8:30 AM – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): Preliminary estimate to be released alongside January data.
South Africa
All Day – Human Rights Day Holiday: Financial markets in South Africa are closed for this national holiday.
Asia-Pacific
3:30 PM – CFTC AUD and JPY speculative net positions: These reports show market positioning in Australian dollar and Japanese yen futures, with previous positions at -48.2K and 133.9K respectively.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Brazilian stock market saw a muted performance on Thursday, March 20. The Ibovespa ended its six-day winning streak, closing down 0.42% at 131,954.90 points after reaching its highest level since October 2024 earlier in the week.
The US dollar strengthened against the Brazilian real, closing at R$5.6758 on Thursday, up 0.49%. This slight appreciation reflects a weakening of the real, though it remains less severe than the 15.95% depreciation observed over the past year, tempered by Central Bank interventions.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stock indexes edged lower on Thursday amid concerns over policy shifts under President Donald Trump and solid economic signals.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% to 5,662.89, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell less than 0.1% to 41,953.32, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 0.3% to 17,691.63.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies declined 0.6% to 2,068.63. Market movements reflected uncertainty, with Accenture among the notable losers due to potential revenue hits from U.S. government spending cuts.
Commodities
Oil Prices
Oil prices extended their rally, driven by Middle East tensions and Iran sanctions. WTI crude traded higher, supporting Brazil’s Petrobras and enhancing prospects for the oil-exporting nation.
Gold Prices
Gold consolidated at $3,029 per ounce after hitting all-time highs, bolstered by ETF inflows and safe-haven demand. This strength benefits Brazil’s mining sector amid global uncertainties.
Copper Prices
Copper held near a five-month high amid a supply redirection crisis, supporting Brazil’s commodity export outlook.
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto markets pulled back after a Fed-fueled rally, with Bitcoin retreating from recent highs. This correction follows a volatile week, though positive sentiment persists in Brazil’s fintech space.
Companies and Market
Mater Dei posted a sharp profit decline in Q4 2024 and canceled treasury shares, signaling challenges in Brazil’s healthcare sector.
REC Logística, a logistics property fund, jumped 25% following an acquisition offer, reflecting optimism in Brazil’s logistics space.
Gerdau’s CEO is considering shifting investments to the U.S. amid a Chinese steel influx, highlighting pressures on Brazil’s steel industry.
Petroreconcavo faced an 83% profit decline in Q4 2024 despite revenue growth, underscoring oil sector volatility.
Moura Dubeux reported a 33% profit surge and announced new dividends, buoyed by strong real estate demand.
Randoncorp, a mobility giant, saw a 112% profit surge despite higher debt, showcasing resilience.
Minerva Foods recorded a $275 million loss in Q4 despite record revenue, reflecting challenges in the meatpacking sector.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
+0.00%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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