Consolidation at $3,029: Gold Takes a Breather After Racing to All-Time Highs as ETF Inflows Surge

Gold prices currently stand at $3029.50 per ounce as of Friday morning, retreating slightly from yesterday’s record high as the US dollar strengthens.

The precious metal remains on track for its third consecutive weekly gain despite today’s modest pullback. Gold experienced a marginal decline in early Asian trading, falling back from Thursday’s historic peak.

Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,029.86 per ounce as of 0500 GMT after reaching an all-time high of $3,057.21 per ounce on Thursday. Current COMEX gold futures are trading at $3,037.50, down 0.2% from previous levels.

Yesterday, gold closed at $3050.17, gaining $18.37 or 0.60% for the session. Yesterday’s trading saw gold futures momentarily touch a lifetime high of $3,065.09 in New York.

Global Market Overview

COMEX (New York): Gold futures opened lower today after Thursday’s rally, with the April contract currently at $3,037.50, down 0.2%. COMEX remains the world’s most influential market for gold futures.

MCX (India): The gold April contract opened at ₹88,431 per 10 grams, down ₹275 from yesterday’s close of ₹88,706. At current writing, it’s trading at ₹88,445, down 0.29%.

Physical Market (India): 24K gold reached a lifetime high of ₹90,670 per 10 grams, while 22K gold is at ₹83,110 per 10 grams. Today’s rates show a slight decline at ₹9,022 per gram for 24K and ₹8,270 for 22K gold.

Shanghai Gold Exchange: As China’s leading physical gold market, the SGE continues to reflect strong regional demand, though specific price data for today isn’t available in the search results.

Market Drivers

Today’s pullback is primarily attributed to a strengthening US dollar, according to Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA. “Gold is experiencing a slight downturn in today’s Asian trading session due to the overall strength of the U.S. dollar against major currencies,” he noted.

Despite the minor correction, several fundamental factors continue to support gold:

1. Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday and projected two quarter-percentage-point cuts by year-end, supporting gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.

2. Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts, particularly in Gaza where Israel resumed bombing, killing 91 Palestinians and ending a ceasefire, continue to drive safe-haven demand.

3. Central Bank Buying: Since the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022, central banks have doubled their annual gold purchases from 500 to over 1,000 metric tonnes.

4. Trump’s Tariff Policies: Uncertainty regarding potential tariffs is creating market volatility, as noted in domestic futures markets.

ETF Flows and Institutional Positioning

Gold ETF flows have shown remarkable strength, outpacing even Bitcoin in recent months. Gold ETF holdings have increased by approximately 3.88 million ounces this year, reaching nearly 86.7 million ounces – the highest level since October 2023. The week ending March 14 alone saw inflows of around $1.16 billion despite gold touching the $3,000/oz level.

This contrasts sharply with Bitcoin ETFs, which have experienced net outflows of approximately $3.8 billion since February 24, while gold has risen around 12% over the same three-month period.

Technical Analysis

Gold’s current price action indicates a slight consolidation phase after its rapid ascent. On the 15-minute chart, the overall trend remains slightly bullish, with 60.71% of moving average signals pointing upward. The RSI stands at 51.86, while MACD is at 1.0600, suggesting neutral momentum.

Rahul Kalantri, VP of Commodities at Mehta Equities, identifies key support levels at $3,015-$2,988 per ounce and resistance at $3,054-$3,070. For Indian markets, support stands at ₹88,340-87,980 per 10 grams, with resistance at ₹89,050-89,450.

Short-term technical indicators suggest a potential test of resistance near $3,040, from which a rebound and possible continuation of the downward correction might occur, with targets below $2,965.

Market Outlook

Kyle Rodda, financial market analyst at Capital.com, suggests gold could see a brief pullback to around $3,000 per ounce before resuming its uptrend.

Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities warns that improving risk sentiment might trigger further corrections in bullion prices. “We expect a potential decline of $30-$50 per ounce in the near term, with MCX gold finding support at ₹87,500 per 10 grams and resistance at ₹89,000 per 10 grams,” he commented.

Colin Shah, MD of Kama Jewelry, maintains a bullish outlook: “The Fed anticipates inflation to rise while economic growth may soften. Additionally, ongoing tariff threats by Trump could dampen growth.

Given this backdrop, gold remains in a bullish phase, with potential to scale new levels. We reiterate our view of gold touching $3,100 per ounce globally and ₹91,000 per 10 grams domestically.”

Historical Context

Gold’s recent performance has been extraordinary by historical standards. The jump from $2,500/oz to $3,000/oz took just 210 days – dramatically faster than previous $500 increments, which averaged approximately 1,700 days.

The precious metal has achieved more than 40 new all-time highs in 2024 and fourteen more so far in 2025. For the week, gold has gained approximately 1.5%, positioning it for a third consecutive weekly gain despite today’s pullback.

Long-term Forecasts

Analyst forecasts for gold remain predominantly bullish, with major institutions setting aggressive targets. Bank of America targets $3,000 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas expect gold to reach $3,100.

UBS and Citi project $3,200, while the most aggressive forecast comes from DoubleLine, which anticipates gold reaching $4,000 per ounce in 2025.

The gold price forecast for 2025 generally ranges between $3,028.03 on the lower end and $4,502.65 on the high end.

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