BRAZIL · US POLITICS
Key Facts
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- What is happening Americans elect a new Congress on Tuesday, 3 November, and Brazil is watching for limits on Trump.
- Why it matters Brazil’s 25% US tariff rests on executive trade powers, so the election cannot lift it by itself.
- The numbers US trade with Brazil reached US$135.7 billion in 2025; the Senate voted 52 to 48 against Brazil tariffs.
- Who is who USTR, the US trade office led by Jamieson Greer, set the tariff; Democrats need a net four Senate seats.
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Democrats a 94.5% chance of the House and 77.5% of the Senate (3 November, 2:46 a.m. ET).
- What to watch Tuesday’s results, and whether a new majority opens oversight of US policy toward Brazil.
- What it means for you Importers of Brazilian goods should not expect tariff relief from the vote alone; USTR publishes the exemptions.
Americans vote on Tuesday for a new Congress. It could change how far Washington can press Brazil, though most levers sit with the president.
Americans vote on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, for all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats. Brazil is watching closely, because Washington has used tariffs and sanctions against it since 2025.
A Democratic gain would give critics of the Trump administration hearings, document requests and budget leverage. It would not give them control of the tariff, which the executive branch sets under a trade law.
What Is on the Ballot
The Senate now has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who vote with the Democrats. That leaves the Democratic side with 47 seats, and 51 are needed for a majority.
How Washington Has Pressed Brazil
On 30 July 2025 President Donald Trump signed Executive Order 14323, which declared a national emergency over Brazil. It added import duties under an emergency-powers law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, known as IEEPA.
On Friday, 20 February 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 that IEEPA does not authorise tariffs. The same day Trump signed Executive Order 14389, which ended those duties on Brazil and eight other orders.
That order left the Brazil national emergency in place. It also left untouched duties under Section 232, on national security grounds, and Section 301, on unfair trade practices.
On Wednesday, 15 July 2026, the US Trade Representative (USTR) announced a 25% tariff on certain Brazilian goods under Section 301. That 1974 trade law led to a yearlong probe that faulted Brazil on digital payments, ethanol and deforestation, among six areas.
Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said negotiations over the past year had not resolved the issues. He added: “we remain open to continuing negotiations with Brazil.”
Sanctions on Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro coup trial, are no longer in force. The Treasury’s sanctions office removed him, his wife and a related institute from its Global Magnitsky list on Friday, 12 December 2025.
What Congress Has Already Done
On 28 October 2025 the Senate voted 52 to 48 for a resolution ending the Brazil national emergency. Five Republicans joined the Democrats: Susan Collins, Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski, Rand Paul and Thom Tillis.
To become law, that resolution needs House passage and the president’s signature, or two-thirds votes in both chambers to override a veto. This report did not find that the House has voted on it.
What a New Congress Could and Could Not Do
A Democratic House could hold hearings, ask agencies for documents and use its budget powers to press the administration on Brazil. A Democratic Senate could also slow nominations.
Neither chamber could cancel the Section 301 tariff on its own. Changing it by law would need both chambers and the president’s signature, or two-thirds votes to override a veto.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a crypto-based trading platform, bettors gave Democrats a 94.5% chance of the House at 2:46 a.m. ET on 3 November. About US$25.0 million had traded on that contract.
The Democratic Senate contract stood at 77.5%, with about US$9.2 million traded. These are bets, not polls, and they pay out only on official results.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
US trade in goods and services with Brazil reached an estimated US$135.7 billion in 2025, USTR says. The United States ran a goods trade surplus of US$14.4 billion with Brazil that year.
US importers should treat the 25% Section 301 tariff as in force whatever the vote, and check the USTR exemption lists. Any change would come from USTR or a deal with Brazil, and USTR says it is open to talks.
Related Rio Times reports are What the US Midterms Mean for Latin America and 25 House Democrats Press Rubio on Bolsonaro. Both cover US politics around the vote.
The Flávio Bolsonaro US Stay Explained report covers the political fallout in Washington after Brazil’s runoff. The Brazil elections page, Who Holds Power in Brazil, the Brazil economy guide and the Brasília city page add context.
What Is Not Known
The result is not known at the time of writing, and polls and bets are not votes. It is also not known whether a Democratic majority would make Brazil a priority.
Brazil’s foreign ministry was not quoted on the record in the sources checked here. This report did not check other US visa or sanctions measures on Brazilian officials, or the House status of the 2025 resolution.
What Comes Next
Polls close on Tuesday evening state by state, and counting runs into the week. The new Congress is sworn in in early January 2027.
USTR has legal power to modify a Section 301 action, so a deal could change the tariff without Congress. An election result alone would not.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the US midterms end Trump’s tariffs on Brazil?
Not by themselves. USTR set the 25% tariff under a trade law, and only a new law or a USTR decision would change it.
What tariff does Brazil face in the United States now?
A 25% Section 301 tariff on certain Brazilian goods, announced on 15 July 2026, with exemptions. The earlier emergency-powers duties ended after the Supreme Court ruling of 20 February 2026.
Are US sanctions on Justice Moraes still in force?
Not any more. The US Treasury removed Justice Alexandre de Moraes, his wife and a related institute from its sanctions list on 12 December 2025.
What did the US Senate vote on Brazil in 2025?
On 28 October 2025 it voted 52 to 48 to end the Brazil national emergency. The resolution still needs House passage and a presidential signature, or a veto override, to take effect.
Sources: Office of the US Trade Representative, Section 301 action on Brazil, 15 July 2026; USTR, US-Brazil trade figures; Federal Register, Executive Order 14389, Ending Certain Tariff Actions; Federal Register, Executive Order 14323 on Brazil; US Supreme Court, Learning Resources v. Trump, 20 February 2026; US Treasury OFAC, recent actions of 12 December 2025; US Senate, roll call vote 594 on S.J.Res. 81, 28 October 2025; US Senate, party division; Polymarket House and Senate control markets (queried 3 November 2026) (all accessed 3 November 2026).
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: When is the Brazil runoff election. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.