Brazil’s Right Unites in São Paulo Senate Race as a Bolsonaro Son Struggles
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil votes on Sunday 4 October. Each of its 26 states and the Federal District fills two Senate seats, and every voter casts two Senate votes.
- —Why it matters Part of the right wants a Senate majority to pursue impeachment of Supreme Court justices, Valor reports. Only the Senate can try them.
- —What happened On Monday 28 September Ricardo Salles, polling 4% in São Paulo, quit the Senate race and endorsed Guilherme Derrite and André do Prado.
- —The numbers São Paulo (Datafolha, 24 September): Marina Silva 15%, Simone Tebet 14%, Derrite 12%, Prado 12%. Santa Catarina (Quaest): Carol De Toni 17%, Carlos Bolsonaro 16%, Esperidião Amin 15%.
- —What it means for you The next Senate decides how far clashes with the Supreme Court go. In São Paulo, a vote typed for Salles’s number 300 will now be void.
- —Still open Whether Salles’s voters follow him, and whether Jair Bolsonaro’s son Carlos wins one of Santa Catarina’s two seats.
Six days before Brazil votes, the right has cleared its field in the country’s biggest state. In the Brazil Senate race, Ricardo Salles withdrew in São Paulo on Monday 28 September and endorsed two rivals.
Further south, the Brazil Senate race is less tidy. Valor reports that Carlos Bolsonaro, a son of the former president, faces a close fight in Santa Catarina.
A withdrawal in São Paulo
Salles, a federal congressman for the free-market Novo party and a former environment minister, made the announcement beside Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. G1, Estadão and CNN Brasil all reported it.
He now backs Guilherme Derrite of the Progressistas (PP) and André do Prado of the Liberal Party (PL). Both run on the governor’s slate.
Salles said the country faced a “catastrophe” if President Lula were re-elected, according to G1. O Globo reported that he called the decision personal, not his party’s.
The reversal is sharp. In an Estadão debate last week, Salles called Prado a “puppet” of PL chairman Valdemar Costa Neto.
Datafolha, cited by Estadão and Metrópoles, had Marina Silva on 15%, Simone Tebet on 14%, and Derrite and Prado on 12% each. All four sat within the two-point margin of error.
Tarcísio asked supporters to pair the two names, CNN Brasil reported. “It is the moment to add, not to divide,” he said.
A harder map in Santa Catarina
Carlos Bolsonaro sat on Rio de Janeiro’s city council until December 2025, then moved his voting address to Santa Catarina. DW Brasil says critics there call him an “outsider”.
Quaest, as published by Gazeta do Povo, shows Carol De Toni (PL) on 17%, Carlos on 16% and Senator Esperidião Amin (PP) on 15%. The margin of error is three points, so all three are tied.
Valor reports that some candidates in Governor Jorginho Mello’s coalition leave the second Senate slot blank on their leaflets. People close to Carlos call this “sabotage”, the paper says.
Mello defends him, with an eye on a possible presidential win for Flávio Bolsonaro. “We will have a senator who is the brother of the President of the Republic,” he told Valor.
What Is Not Yet Known
No poll yet measures São Paulo without Salles. It is unclear how many of his voters will move to Derrite and Prado rather than stay home or vote elsewhere.
In Santa Catarina, analysts quoted by Valor do not rule out a Carlos defeat. That would leave the Bolsonaro family with thin Senate representation.
Whether the right reaches a Senate majority depends on many close state races. Results are due on the night of 4 October.
For the wider picture, see Brazil Elects a New Congress Next Week. Only 18% Rate the Current One Well and Brazil’s São Paulo Governor Holds 16-Point Poll Lead a Week Before Vote.
Sources: G1; Estadão; CNN Brasil; Metrópoles; O Globo; Terra; Valor Econômico; Gazeta do Povo (Quaest); DW Brasil.
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