Brazil’s São Paulo Governor Holds 16-Point Poll Lead a Week Before Vote
BRAZIL · SÃO PAULO ELECTION
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil has about 213 million people and Latin America’s largest economy. São Paulo state alone has more people than Canada and produces close to a third of national output.
- —Why it matters The governor runs the state police, schools and hospitals for tens of millions of people. The job is also a common springboard to national politics.
- —Why now Brazilians vote on Sunday 4 October. A candidate who wins more than half the valid votes takes the post without a runoff on 25 October.
- —What happened On 26 September a poll average put Governor Tarcísio de Freitas on 47.87 percent and Fernando Haddad on 32.18 percent, a gap of 15.69 points.
- —The numbers Five polls released from 20 to 24 September all put Tarcísio ahead, by 14.2 to 20 points. Datafolha gives him 56 percent of valid votes.
- —What it means for you A first-round win would mean continuity in Brazil’s richest state, including its privatisation programme. A runoff would add three more weeks of campaigning.
- —Still open Whether undecided voters break late, and whether Tarcísio clears the 50 percent line on the day rather than in surveys.
With one week left before Brazil votes, the São Paulo governor race looks settled in every published poll. The open question is whether Governor Tarcísio de Freitas wins outright on 4 October or faces a runoff.
A weighted average of registered polls puts him on 47.87 percent. The data firm Inteligov and the business magazine Exame released it on Saturday 26 September.
His main rival, former finance minister Fernando Haddad, stands at 32.18 percent. The gap is 15.69 points.
An average, not a single poll
The 47.87 figure does not come from one survey. It is the output of Monitor Eleitoral, an aggregator run by Inteligov and published with Exame.
Because it is an average, it carries no court registration number of its own.
It draws only on polls registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil’s national election authority. Every poll published during a campaign must be filed there first, with its sample, dates and funding.
The model is a weighted moving average, not a simple mean. Face-to-face household surveys count most, while phone-robot and online polls lose 30 to 45 percent of their weight.
Age matters too: a result loses a quarter of its weight every fortnight. Recent polls dominate, but older ones do not disappear.
The latest update added 82 new surveys to the 470 already in its database.
What moved this week
Very little. Against the previous edition on 20 September, Tarcísio rose 0.64 points and Haddad 0.73, the largest gain of the round.
The gap between them narrowed from 15.78 points to 15.69. That is less than a tenth of a point, well inside the noise of any poll.
The rest of the field barely registers. A police officer, Policial Edjane, peaked at 3 percent in the previous round.
The state electoral court has since ruled her candidacy invalid, and she has withdrawn. Four other candidates sit close to zero.
The five polls behind the average
Five pollsters published first-round numbers for the state between 20 and 24 September. All five put Tarcísio ahead, by margins between 14.2 and 20 points.
Datafolha, the pollster of the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, has Tarcísio on 50 percent and Haddad on 30. It interviewed 1,610 voters from Tuesday 22 to Thursday 24 September, for Folha and TV Globo.
Its margin of error is two points either way, and the survey is filed with the court as SP-03730/2026. On 11 September the same pollster had the pair at 49 and 29.
Quaest shows the lowest totals: 44 percent to 27. It spoke to 1,800 voters from 19 to 22 September, with a two-point margin, under registration SP-02456/2026.
On 8 September Quaest had Tarcísio on 42 and Haddad on 27. In its open-ended question, where no names are read out, 56 percent said they had not yet decided.
Paraná Pesquisas found 50.7 percent to 33.3 among 1,600 voters interviewed from 19 to 21 September. Ten days earlier it had 49.7 to 34.5.
AtlasIntel, which polls online, has 55.2 percent to 41, the narrowest gap at 14.2 points. Real Time Big Data has 53 to 38 among 2,000 voters.
A sixth poll, by Vox Brasil, came out on 25 September. It had Tarcísio on 56.5 percent and Haddad on 33.4.
Part of the spread reflects method. Pollsters differ in how many respondents they record as undecided or voting blank, and that moves every total.
Why 50 percent is the number to watch
Brazilian law settles a governor’s race in the first round only if one candidate wins more than half of the valid votes. Valid votes exclude blank and spoiled ballots.
That is why the average of 47.87 percent can understate his position. It measures all voters, including the undecided.
Datafolha makes the conversion itself. Counting only valid votes, it gives Tarcísio 56 percent and Haddad 34, comfortably above the line.
In July the same pollster had him on 52 percent of valid votes. His lead has widened since, while Haddad has held at about 30 percent of all voters.
If a runoff did happen, every pollster that tested one still shows Tarcísio ahead. Datafolha has 55 to 36, Quaest 49 to 30.
Two familiar names
Tarcísio, of the conservative Republicanos party, was infrastructure minister under Jair Bolsonaro. He beat Haddad in the 2022 runoff and is seeking a second four-year term.
Haddad, of President Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT), is a former mayor of São Paulo city. He left the finance ministry in March to run.
The newspaper O Globo noted on Sunday that late comebacks in São Paulo governor contests have been rare.
The campaign has also turned on the 2024 sale of water utility Sabesp, one of Tarcísio’s signature reforms. Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin has called for that sale to be investigated.
For the wider background, see our guide to the São Paulo Governor Race 2026: Tarcísio vs Haddad — Polls, Issues and Stakes.
What comes next
More polls are due before Sunday 4 October, and the aggregator updates as they are registered. If no one clears half the valid votes, the top two meet again on 25 October.
What the numbers do not mean is that the result is decided. Polls measure intention on the days they were taken.
In 2022 several Brazilian polls ended well away from the results.
They also say nothing certain about turnout, or about the undecided voters Quaest still finds. Comebacks from this far behind are rare in São Paulo, but the lead must still be confirmed at the ballot box.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading in São Paulo?
Governor Tarcísio de Freitas leads in every published poll. The Inteligov/Exame average of 26 September puts him on 47.87 percent against 32.18 for Fernando Haddad.
Can Tarcísio win in the first round?
He needs more than half of the valid votes on 4 October. Datafolha gives him 56 percent of valid votes, but that is a survey estimate, not a result.
Why is the average lower than some individual polls?
It blends many surveys, gives older ones reduced weight, and counts undecided voters. Polls that record fewer undecided respondents show higher totals for both men.
When is the runoff?
If no candidate clears half the valid votes on 4 October, the top two meet on Sunday 25 October.
Sources: Inteligov/Exame Monitor Eleitoral, editions of 20 and 26 September 2026; Datafolha for Folha de S.Paulo and TV Globo, TSE registration SP-03730/2026; Quaest for Globo, SP-02456/2026; Paraná Pesquisas, AtlasIntel and Real Time Big Data as summarised by Veja, 26 September 2026; Vox Brasil as reported by Exame, 25 September 2026; InfoMoney, Valor Econômico, Gazeta do Povo; O Globo; Brazil’s 2026 electoral calendar.
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