Rondônia Poll Points to Runoff in Brazil, Marcos Rogério Leads With 42%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- —The numbers Real Time Big Data puts Marcos Rogério on 42% and Adailton Fúria on 30% in fieldwork from 25 to 29 September 2026.
- —Valid votes Counting only valid votes, Marcos Rogério has 45%, short of the more than 50% needed to win outright on 4 October.
- —The runoff In a second round on 25 October, the poll has Marcos Rogério on 49% and Fúria on 40%.
- —The method The pollster interviewed 1,600 voters by telephone; the margin of error is two percentage points either way.
- —The trend In the same pollster’s July survey, Marcos Rogério had 36% and Fúria 28%.
The latest Rondônia poll shows a populist-right senator well ahead but short of a majority, with a former mayor in second place.
A new Rondônia poll puts Senator Marcos Rogério on 42% and former mayor Adailton Fúria on 30% in the race for governor. The survey points to a runoff between the two in this Brazilian Amazon state on 25 October 2026.
Rondônia Poll: A Clear Leader, but No Majority
Real Time Big Data, a Brazilian polling company, interviewed 1,600 voters by telephone between 25 and 29 September. The news site Rondoniaovivo published the results on 30 September.
The margin of error is two percentage points either way, at a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with the electoral court under the number RO-03623/2026.
Rondônia lies in Brazil’s western Amazon, on the border with Bolivia, and its capital is Porto Velho. Brazilians elect their governors, Congress and president together on Sunday, 4 October.
Why a Second Round Looks Likely
A candidate for governor wins in the first round only with more than half of the valid votes. Blank and spoiled ballots do not count.
On that measure, Marcos Rogério has 45%, Fúria 32% and Hildon Chaves 11%. The leader would need about five more points to avoid a runoff.
In a head-to-head contest, the poll gives Marcos Rogério 49% against 40% for Fúria. Another 5% would vote blank or spoil the ballot, and 6% are undecided.
Against Hildon Chaves, Marcos Rogério would win 51% to 34%. Against Expedito Netto, the gap widens to 60% against 22%.
Who the Candidates Are
Marcos Rogério of the PL, the populist-right Liberal Party of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is a federal senator for Rondônia. He began as a city councillor in Ji-Paraná and served two terms in the lower house before his 2018 Senate win.
Adailton Fúria of the centre-right PSD, the Social Democratic Party, is a former mayor of Cacoal, a city in the interior. Voters there re-elected him in 2024, before he left office to run for governor.
Hildon Chaves of União Brasil, a large centre-right party, is a former mayor of Porto Velho. Expedito Netto represents the Workers’ Party (PT) of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The full poll shows Netto on 9%, Samuel Costa of the PSB on 2% and Pedro Abib of the MDB on 1%. Blank and spoiled votes add up to 3%, with 3% undecided.
A Second Try for Marcos Rogério
This is the senator’s second run for governor, after a 2022 runoff against Governor Marcos Rocha. In that year’s first round, Rocha took 38.88% of valid votes and Marcos Rogério 37.05%.
Marcos Rocha of União Brasil then won a second term. He cannot run again, because Brazil’s constitution bars governors from a third consecutive term.
That leaves an open seat. Fúria has distanced himself from the governor over health and security, while keeping informal ties to the administration, according to Rondoniaovivo.
How the Race Has Moved Since July
Real Time Big Data’s July survey had Marcos Rogério on 36%, Fúria on 28%, Hildon Chaves on 13% and Netto on 8%. Since then, the leader has gained six points and Fúria two.
The runoff gap has widened as well. In July, Marcos Rogério led Fúria by 44% to 40%; now the margin is nine points.
Rejection, the share of voters who say they would never back a candidate, tells a more balanced story. Netto is rejected by 44%, Marcos Rogério and Chaves by 38% each, and Fúria by 33%.
Fúria therefore has the lowest rejection among the main contenders. On that measure, he would start a runoff campaign facing less fixed opposition than the leader.
A Map of Interior and Capital
The vote is split by geography. Marcos Rogério is strongest in conservative and evangelical areas such as Ariquemes, Ji-Paraná and Vilhena, Rondoniaovivo reported.
Fúria leads in his home region around Cacoal, while Chaves draws most support in the capital. Most of the state’s voters live in the interior, outside Porto Velho.
Rondoniaovivo’s political columnist notes that Rondônia has a record of late surprises in the final days. In his view, three candidates still compete for two runoff places.
What Comes Next
Polls measure intentions, not turnout. Voting is compulsory in Brazil, yet nobody has a reliable estimate of how many Rondônia voters will stay home on Sunday.
If no candidate passes half of the valid votes, the two leaders return to the ballot on 25 October. Any presidential runoff falls on the same day, in a national race where 31.5% of voters may switch their choice.
More: Brazil Elections 2026 news, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads the Rondônia poll for governor?
Real Time Big Data puts Senator Marcos Rogério of the PL on 42% and Adailton Fúria of the PSD on 30%. The fieldwork ran from 25 to 29 September 2026 with 1,600 voters.
Will Rondônia need a runoff?
Most likely, according to this poll. Marcos Rogério has 45% of valid votes, below the more than 50% needed to win on 4 October. A second round would follow on 25 October.
Why can Governor Marcos Rocha not run again?
Marcos Rocha won a second term in 2022. Brazil’s constitution allows governors only one consecutive re-election, so the 2026 race has an open seat.
Sources: Rondoniaovivo · Rondoniaovivo · Rondoniaovivo · Rondoniaovivo · Superior Electoral Court (TSE)
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