Brazil Projects Record Grain Harvest of 325.7 Million Tons for 2024/25 Season

Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) announced a projected record grain harvest of 325.7 million tons for the 2024/25 season, marking a 9.4% increase compared to the previous cycle.

The growth stems from a 2.1% expansion in cultivated area, now estimated at 81.6 million hectares, and a 7.1% recovery in average productivity, reaching 3,990 kilograms per hectare. If confirmed, this would be the largest harvest in Conab’s historical records.

Corn production is expected to rise by 5.5%, reaching 122 million tons. The first corn harvest covers 13.3% of the planted area, producing an estimated 23.6 million tons.

This comes despite a 6.6% reduction in planted area, which was offset by a 9.9% productivity gain over the previous season. Meanwhile, planting for the second corn crop has reached 18.8% of its area.

Favorable weather conditions are supporting a projected output of 96 million tons, marking a 6.4% increase. Soybean production is forecast at an unprecedented 166 million tons, an increase of 18 million tons from the previous season.

This growth reflects expanded planting areas and improved yields, particularly in Paraná, Santa Catarina, and much of the Midwest region. The favorable weather conditions played a key role in this success. However, water shortages in Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul have posed challenges.

Strong Production Despite Challenges

Rice production is set to reach 11.8 million tons, an 11.4% increase compared to last year’s harvest, driven by a 6.4% rise in cultivated area to 1.7 million hectares. Nonetheless, high temperatures and reduced water reservoir levels in Rio Grande do Sul remain concerns for producers.

Bean production is projected at 3.3 million tons across three harvest cycles. The first cycle has already covered nearly half of its planted area. Cotton production is also expected to hit a record high of 3.8 million tons as planting expands by 4.8%.

The wheat crop is forecast at 9.1 million tons for winter planting starting in April in Paraná and May in Rio Grande do Sul.

Domestically, corn demand is estimated at 86.9 million tons, while exports are expected to dip slightly to 34 million tons. Rice exports are projected at approximately 2 million tons as Brazil capitalizes on its record-breaking agricultural output amidst fluctuating global market conditions.