U.S. Corn Prices Climb on Strong Exports and South American Climate Struggles

U.S. corn futures rose on February 13, 2025, driven by strong export demand and weather-related production challenges in South America. The most active corn contract closed at $4.935 per bushel, up 3.25 cents.

This increase was driven by robust international sales, which offset concerns over global supply disruptions. Weekly U.S. corn exports reached 1.65 million metric tons (MMT), marking a 12% increase from the previous week and a 20% rise over the four-week average.

This demand coincided with reduced output forecasts from Argentina, where prolonged drought conditions have lowered expected corn production to 46 MMT, down by 2 MMT.

While recent rains improved soil moisture levels, they came too late to significantly recover yields for early-planted crops. Brazil also faced delays in planting its second corn crop due to slow soybean harvesting caused by excessive rainfall.

Only 20% of Brazil’s safrinha corn has been planted, compared to 38% at the same time last year, raising concerns about yield potential as planting extends beyond the optimal window.

Soybean futures also edged higher, closing at $10.30 per bushel with a gain of 2.25 cents. However, U.S. soybean exports fell short of expectations, with weekly sales of just 185,500 metric tons—down significantly from previous weeks.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s record soybean harvest, projected at 171.7 MMT despite weather delays, has pressured global soybean prices as buyers shift toward South American supplies.

Wheat futures followed the upward trend, closing at $5.7775 per bushel after rising 3.50 cents. Strong U.S. export sales and climate risks in key wheat-producing regions supported prices.

These price movements reflect broader market dynamics shaped by climate variability and geopolitical uncertainties, including disruptions in Black Sea grain exports and ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations.

With global corn stocks projected to tighten further, traders are closely monitoring weather patterns and export data. These factors will guide market direction in the weeks ahead.