Brazil Justice Said to Eye Bolsonaro Case After 25 Oct
POLITICS · BRAZIL
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, holds a presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the convicted former president.
- —Why it matters Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of Donald Trump, is serving a sentence of 27 years and three months for a coup plot. A justice he appointed now handles his bid to overturn it.
- —Why now Flávio led the first round on Sunday 4 October with 47.03% to Lula’s 45.16%. The Supreme Court’s role has become a central campaign issue.
- —What happened On Monday 5 October, Folha de S.Paulo reported that Justice Nunes Marques wants the case judged after the runoff. Supreme Court President Edson Fachin defended the court the same day.
- —What it means for you Nothing changes in Bolsonaro’s legal situation before 25 October. Investors and travellers face a second political flashpoint after the vote, whoever wins.
- —Still open Whether an injunction comes first, when the full court votes, and what Fachin and Flávio’s campaign coordinator discuss at their meeting set for 1 p.m. on Tuesday 6 October.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 84% chance of winning the presidency (6 October, 2:22 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 84% and Kalshi at 85% (Lula: 17% and 16%), as of 6 October, 3:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Kassio Nunes Marques wants to bring Jair Bolsonaro’s bid to overturn his coup conviction to judgment only after the 25 October presidential runoff, according to people close to him. Folha de S.Paulo first reported the plan on Monday evening, and Valor Econômico, CNN Brasil and O Globo confirmed it.
The timing matters well beyond Brasília. Bolsonaro is a close ally of President Donald Trump, and his son Flávio won the most votes in Sunday’s first round.
Washington has already made the case part of its dealings with Brazil. In July 2025 the US Treasury sanctioned Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who led the coup case. It cited “politicized prosecutions”, including that of Bolsonaro.
On Monday, court president Edson Fachin warned that “no claim to power can prevail over popular sovereignty, the constitutional order and democracy.” At 1 p.m. on Tuesday he is due to receive the coordinator of Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign.
A Review Held Until After the Vote
Bolsonaro was convicted last year by the court’s First Panel and sentenced to 27 years and three months for plotting a coup. He is serving the sentence at home, Folha reported.
His lawyers have filed a revisão criminal, a rare request to reopen a final conviction. They argue the full court, not a five-judge panel, should have tried him. They also claim his defence was curtailed. The first request reached Nunes Marques in May; the defence filed a second last week.
Bolsonaro appointed Nunes Marques to the court in 2020. He now also presides over the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which runs the election. According to Folha, he told people close to him the case is ready. He has held it back so he cannot be accused of interfering in the vote.
Folha reported that he sees “exaggerations” in the case and expects his vote to cause a “national commotion”. It said he is weighing an injunction to free Bolsonaro. The likelier path, the paper said, is a vote by the full court.
O Globo reported a different emphasis. Its sources said Nunes Marques does not intend to grant an injunction and wants a collective ruling instead. Valor reported he has no such plan “for now”. All three outlets cite people around the justice, not a court statement.
Freeing Bolsonaro through the full court would need at least six votes, O Globo reported. Folha counted four who convicted him, Moraes, Flávio Dino, Cármen Lúcia and Cristiano Zanin, plus Gilmar Mendes as likely opponents. That leaves Dias Toffoli and Fachin as the open votes, Folha said. Valor counts Fachin among the likely opponents and sees only Toffoli as undecided. Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet opposed the first request in June, Valor reported.
For a related report, see Bolsonaro Asks Supreme Court to Suspend Coup Sentence.
Fachin Defends the Court and Meets Flávio’s Camp
Fachin spoke on Monday at the court’s headquarters, opening a week marking 38 years of the 1988 Constitution. He praised the court’s role after rioters stormed government buildings in Brasília on 8 January 2023.
“Circumstances alternate, generations succeed one another, challenges change their clothing,” he said. “The Court is greater than everything and everyone, and it will endure.”
He also said guarding the Constitution “is not owning it”. Valor Econômico read the speech as a sign of the resistance a ruling for Bolsonaro would meet inside the court. The stabiliser is the calendar: the electoral court runs the count, and the runoff date is fixed by law.
Senator Rogério Marinho of Rio Grande do Norte coordinates Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign for the conservative Liberal Party (PL). He told SBT News that Fachin will receive him at 1 p.m. on Tuesday (noon ET).
“I will take our concerns to him,” Marinho said, describing the topic as what he called undue intervention by the courts. He has accused some justices of meddling in electoral matters. SBT News reported he also wants to signal there will be no general “witch hunt” against judges if Flávio wins.
Flávio has campaigned on impeaching Supreme Court justices, especially Moraes. Removing a justice takes two thirds of the 81-member Senate, or 54 votes. Lula belongs to the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT). Background on the race: Brazil Runoff on October 25, Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula.
What It Means for You
For investors holding Brazilian stocks, bonds or ADRs, the reported timetable removes one shock from the campaign itself. It moves a second one to the weeks after 25 October.
A ruling to free Bolsonaro, or a refusal, could reopen tension between Brazil’s courts and Washington. That would land on a relationship already strained by sanctions and trade disputes.
For travellers and residents, nothing changes. Courts, airports and public services run normally, and only Brazilian citizens vote on 25 October.
What Is Not Known
Nunes Marques has made no public statement, and the reports rely on unnamed people around him. It is not known whether he will issue an injunction first or take the case straight to the full court.
No date for a judgment has been set; once the rapporteur releases a case, the court’s president schedules it. The prosecutor general has not yet given an opinion on the second request, O Globo reported. What Fachin and Marinho discuss on Tuesday, and whether either side speaks afterwards, is also open.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, bets give Flávio Bolsonaro an 84% chance of winning and Lula about 17% (6 October, 2:22 a.m. ET). Flávio’s price rose about two points in 24 hours.
The Brazil presidency market has drawn about US$174 million in total trading volume. These are bets, not polls, and no active market prices the Bolsonaro review itself.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 83.7% · Lula 16.5% (US$174 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 85% · Lula 16%
As of 6 October, 3:20 am ET (08:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What is a revisão criminal in Brazil?
It is a request to reopen a conviction that can no longer be appealed. Courts accept it only in narrow cases, such as new proof of innocence or a verdict built on false evidence.
Will Jair Bolsonaro be freed before the 25 October runoff?
Not according to the reports. Folha de S.Paulo, Valor Econômico and O Globo say Justice Nunes Marques plans to move the case only after the runoff. He wants to avoid any charge of influencing the vote.
Why does the Bolsonaro case matter to the United States?
Bolsonaro is a Trump ally, and in July 2025 the US Treasury sanctioned Justice Alexandre de Moraes, citing the prosecution of Bolsonaro. Any ruling could affect relations between Washington and Brasília.
Sources: Supreme Federal Court, speech by President Edson Fachin, 5 October 2026 (text); Folha de S.Paulo; Valor Econômico; O Globo; CNN Brasil; SBT News; Metrópoles; US Treasury, 30 July 2025; Polymarket market data, 6 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief