Brazil: new property sales to grow 12.8% in 2021

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The Brazilian real estate market registered a positive balance last year, despite problems such as rising prices and inflation. The number of new property sales grew 12.8% compared to 2020. Real estate launches registered an increase of 25.9%, and the final offer (unsold properties) closed the period with 3.8% growth.

The data are from the study National Real Estate Indicators for the 4th quarter of 2021, conducted by the Brazilian Chamber of the Construction Industry (CBIC) and the National Service for Industrial Learning (Senai Nacional), in partnership with Brain Inteligência Estratégica.

The information was released on Monday, February 21, in an online press conference. The data collected and analyzed include 176 cities, 22 of which are state capitals.

For the president of the Brazilian Chamber of the Construction Industry (CBIC), José Carlos Martins, “the biggest problem civil construction has today is the lack of labor because the sector is very heated. In 2020 and the first half of 2021, sales were outstanding, and we broke record after record. The consolidated numbers for 2021 are positive, but this needs to be read carefully because the curve stabilizes in the last quarter and begins to decline.

According to the study, the launches and sales in the second half of 2021 were affected by the change in the economic scenario and by the effects of rising costs of construction inputs. In addition, there was an effective reduction in the purchasing power of families.

“Back then, we said that the cost increase was not compatible with the increase in people’s income. The IPCA [National Wide Consumer Price Index] should be around 10%; the Civil Construction Index is 20%. The construction cost has risen much more than the replacement capacity of salaries”.

According to Celso Petrucci, president of the Real Estate Industry Commission of CBIC, real estate prices registered an increase of 6.12% in the last quarter of 2021, compared to the previous quarter. Petrucci points out that the construction companies were not passing on the rise in costs to the price, but now the final consumer is absorbing the increase in material prices.

INTENTION TO BUY

In the last 12 months, the intention to buy real estate remained stable, with 5% of the population stating that they intend to purchase real estate.

According to Marcos Kahtalian, partner of Brain Inteligência Estratégica, 62% of Brazilians have no intention of buying; 20% have the intention but have not started to look actively; 12% have the intention but have looked only on the internet, and 6% have the intention and have already started to visit real estate properties and sales stands. “There is the will to buy, but the big concern is whether the property fits in the pocket”.

GREEN AND YELLOW HOUSE

In the Federal Government’s housing program, the Green and Yellow House (Casa Verde e Amarela – CVA), sales increased 3.4% in 2021 compared to the previous year. For the president of CBIC, the market should be positively affected by the new subsidy curve that will go into effect between March and April of this year. The expectation is that the improvement in sales can make the numbers of the indicators close to last year’s.

According to the Ministry of Regional Development, with the increase in the price of construction inputs, the values of the properties became disqualified from the Green and Yellow House program. The subsidy curve, which varies with income, family composition, or family location, was changed. “What we did was increase the value of this subsidy for more families, especially those receiving up to R$2,000 (US$392). It reduces the risk for financial agents and improves the purchasing conditions for families who are the program’s main focus,” said, in an interview on the ministry’s website, the national secretary of Housing, Alfredo dos Santos.

The survey also analyzed the participation of the Green and Yellow House housing program in the total number of units launched and sold in all Brazilian regions. In the last quarter of 2021, compared to the previous quarter, the number of launches rose 28.3%, sales dropped 0.3%, and the final offer registered a 12.1% increase.

In the 4th quarter, the program’s participation in the total units sold registered a slight drop compared to the previous quarter, going from 47% of all the properties sold in Brazil to 45%. Concerning launches, of the total in the 4th quarter, 41% were from Casa Verde and Amarela.

The region with the highest number of units sold by CVA in the last quarter was the Southeast with 18,167, followed by the Northeast with 5,248. The South Region had 3,614 sales through the housing program; the Midwest had 1,660, and the North, 721.
Numbers

Compared to 2020, launches increased by 25.9%. The Southeast region led the way with a 32% growth and 159,662 units launched. The Midwest registered an increase of 29.3%, with 20,186 units launched; the Northeast grew 22.1%, with 37,643 launches. In the South, there were 41,884 launches and an increase of 11.8%, and the North had 6,303 launches, with a growth of 0.8%.

In the comparison between the 3rd quarter of 2021 and the 4th, the launched general value (VGL), which is the multiplication of the number of units launched with the amount charged for each one, the variation was 42.5%, adding up to R$ 42 billion. In 2021, the variation was 48.9% compared to the previous year, with a GLA of R$116 billion. In 2020, the value was R$78 billion.

Compared to the previous one, the final offer increased 10.4% in the 4th quarter and reached 232,566 unsold units offered in December 2021. Considering the average sales of the last 12 months, if there are no new launchings, the final offer could be drained in 10.7 months, which is not much in Petrucci’s evaluation.

In the whole of the 4th quarter, sales registered an increase of 3.6%. However, only the Southeast region recorded an increase in sales, with 15.5% and 39,556 units sold in the quarter. The North region was the one that registered the most significant drop in sales in the period, which reached 22.9%, with 1,428 units.

In 2021, compared to 2020, the Northeast region registered the highest growth percentage, with 16.7% more sales, followed by the Southeast, with an increase of 14.3%, the Center-West (11.1%), the South (8.2%), and the North, with a drop of 4.6%.

With information from Agência Brasil

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