Brazil elections 2022: Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva remain stable, Doria’s exit has initial null effect

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – PoderData poll conducted from Sunday morning to early Tuesday evening (May 22-24) indicates stability in the succession scenario. The former governor of São Paulo, João Doria (PSDB), was kept in the study because he only gave up running around noon on Monday, May 23. But this was enough for the PSDB candidate to drop to 1% in voting intentions (he scored from 2% to 4% in previous surveys). The effect was small.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party – PT) scored 43%, and President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party – PL), 35%. They have been at this level for more than a month, stable with minimal variations and within the margin of error. Senator Simone Tebet (MDB-MS) scored 2%. In other words, the announcement of Doria’s withdrawal from the race drained the toucan’s votes, but they were not inherited by the candidate Tebet, now almost the favorite of the so-called third way.

Ciro Gomes (PDT) scored 5%. He is followed by congressman André Janones (Avante-MG), with 3%. José Maria Eymael (DC-RS), who has been a presidential candidate five times, has 1% – the same percentage as Luciano Bivar (União Brasil).

The real impact of João Doria’s withdrawal will only be perceived in one or two weeks, with a survey without the former candidate’s name and when Simone Tebet will have already obtained space in the media to present herself as a candidate in a more assertive way. However, the MDB has several wings, and not all of them are in favor of the senator from the state of Mato Grosso do Sul.

The former governor, João Doria, scored between 2% and 4% since the beginning of the year. He had a slight advantage among voters who voted for Bolsonaro in the second round of 2018.

The survey was conducted by PoderData, a company of the Poder360 Jornalismo group. From May 22 to 24, 2022, the data were collected through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,000 interviews in 301 cities in the 27 states of the Federation. The margin of error is two percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-05638/2022.

To reach 3,000 interviews that proportionally fill the groups by sex, age, income, education, and geographical location as they appear in society, PoderData makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, it takes more than 100,000 calls until it finds the interviewees who faithfully represent the entire population.

STRATIFICATION

Lula comes out ahead in strategic groups in society: he leads among women (46%), younger (46%), less educated (52%), poorer (51%), and residents of the Northeast (57%) and Southeast (41%).

Bolsonaro, on the other hand, has higher voting intentions among men (43%), in the Midwest (50%) and North (43%), and among those who earn more than five minimum wages (42%).

Second round of voting

In a possible direct dispute between Lula and Bolsonaro in the second round of voting, the Brazilian presidential candidate comes ahead and has 50% of voting intentions, against 39% for the current president. The distance between the two is 11 percentage points, the same as 15 days before.

With information from Poder360