Brazil elections 2022: Bolsonaro has 46% among evangelicals; Lula da Silva, 44% among Catholics

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – A PoderData survey conducted from May 22 to 24 shows that Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party – PL) leads and has 46% of voting intentions among evangelical voters for the first round of the 2022 elections. In this segment, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party – PT) has 33%.

The distance between the two pre-candidates in this group is 13 percentage points. In the May 8-10 round, it was 27 p.p.

Among Catholics, the scenario is reversed, and Lula comes out ahead, with 44% of intentions. Bolsonaro has the same score as the general average (35%) in this religious segment.

Despite the difference with the PT pre-candidate, Bolsonaro would win the 2022 presidential elections in the first round if the dispute were held only among evangelical voters. Lula follows the same movement among Catholics. He has numerically more votes in this stratum than all his other opponents combined.

In the general average, considering the population as a whole, Lula has 43%, against the current president’s 35%. The difference between the two is eight percentage points.

Ciro Gomes (PDT) scores 5%. He is followed by congressman André Janones (Avante-MG), with 3%. José Maria Eymael (DC-RS), who has been a candidate for president five times, has 1% – the same percentage as Luciano Bivar (União Brasil).

DORIA IN THE PODERDATA SURVEY

The name of the former governor of São Paulo, João Doria (PSDB), was kept in the study because he only gave up running around noon on Monday, May 23, with the survey already in progress.

The TSE (Superior Electoral Court) determines that surveys must be registered five days before publication. The last PowerData survey was registered on Thursday, May 19, 2022.

The questionnaire sent to TSE included the former governor of São Paulo.

According to the survey, Doria has never achieved a score higher than 4% of voting intentions in PoderData’s 2022 polls. He has oscillated between 2% and 4% since the beginning of the year. He had a slight advantage among voters who voted for Bolsonaro in the second round of 2018.

The real impact of the exit will only be perceived in one or two weeks, with a survey without his name and when Simone Tebet (MDB-MS) will have already obtained space in the media to present herself as a candidate in a more assertive manner. However, the MDB has several wings, and not all of them are in favor of the senator from the state of Mato Grosso do Sul.

The survey was carried out by PoderData, a company of the Poder360 Jornalismo group. The data were collected through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,000 interviews in 301 cities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is two percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. TSE Registration: BR-05638/2022.

To reach 3,000 interviews that proportionally fill the groups by sex, age, income, education, and geographical location as they appear in society, PoderData makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often more than 100,000 calls until it finds the interviewees who faithfully represent the entire population.

With information from Poder360