Brazil Election Poll: Veritá Shows Flávio Bolsonaro Leading Lula in Both Rounds
Key Facts
—The first round — Veritá’s registered national poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 38.9 percent and President Lula at 38.4 percent, a technical tie with the challenger numerically ahead for the first time in this series. Augusto Cury follows at 12.2 percent.
—The runoff — In a second-round simulation the same poll gives Flávio Bolsonaro 48.5 percent against Lula’s 43.1 percent, a 5.4-point gap — outside the two-point margin of error.
—The method — The national poll heard 3,804 voters between 1 and 4 September 2026 and is registered with the electoral court under protocol BR-09426/2026. Its fieldwork predates the mid-September escalation in Brasília.
—The consolidation — A second Veritá release, built from 40,500 state-level interviews conducted 10 to 19 September, calculates Flávio at 45.53 percent of valid votes against Lula’s 41.76 percent, with the challenger ahead in 17 of 27 states.
Thirteen days before Brazil votes, another institute has moved into the Flávio Bolsonaro column. Veritá released two products on Sunday: a registered national poll with a technical first-round tie, and a large state-by-state consolidation that puts the challenger ahead almost everywhere outside the Northeast. The divergence between pollsters is now the story itself.
What Veritá Published on Sunday
Instituto Veritá released its national poll on Sunday, 20 September 2026. Interviewers heard 3,804 voters across the country between 1 and 4 September. The margin of error is two percentage points, and the survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR-09426/2026.
In the first-round scenario, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) reaches 38.9 percent, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) 38.4 percent. The half-point gap is a technical tie — but it is the first time Veritá has shown the challenger numerically in front. Writer Augusto Cury (Avante) holds third place at 12.2 percent, his strongest showing in any national series so far.
The runoff simulation is clearer: Flávio Bolsonaro 48.5 percent, Lula 43.1 percent. Blank and spoiled ballots account for 4.9 percent, and 3.6 percent of respondents did not answer. The 5.4-point lead exceeds the margin of error.
The 40,500-Interview Consolidation
Veritá’s second Sunday release is not a single poll but a consolidation of its state-level surveys. The institute conducted 40,500 interviews between 10 and 19 September, with per-state margins between 2 and 3.5 points, and weighted the results by each state’s electorate. State-level polls carry their own TSE registrations.
That calculation gives Flávio Bolsonaro 45.53 percent of valid votes in the first round, against 41.76 percent for Lula — a 3.77-point gap. The remaining candidates sum 12.71 percent: Cury at 5.68, Renan Santos (Missão) at 3.03, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 1.84 and Romeu Zema (Novo) at 0.59.
Regionally, the consolidation has Flávio ahead in the South (54.6 to 32.3), the North (49.7 to 37.3), the Southeast (48.0 to 39.6) and the Center-West (47.6 to 34.8). Lula leads only in the Northeast, 53.3 to 35.2. Counting all 27 federal units, Flávio posts his best number in 17 states, Lula in 10.
How Veritá Sits Among the Other Institutes
Veritá joins a majority of pollsters now showing Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead in a runoff. Quaest, polling 2,004 voters from 10 to 13 September for Globo, had him at 42 percent to Lula’s 40. AtlasIntel, with 5,018 respondents from 11 to 16 September, measured 47.2 to 46.8. PoderData’s weekly round last week put the runoff at 47 to 45 for the challenger.
Datafolha remains the holdout. Its 15-to-16 September survey of 2,002 voters gave Lula a 46-to-44 runoff lead and first-round advantage of 39 to 36. All four comparisons sit inside or near their own error bands — except Veritá’s registered runoff, which does not.
Two cautions apply. Veritá’s registered national poll was fielded 1 to 4 September, before the Supreme Court crisis and the “Dark Horse” film-financing investigation dominated the campaign. And the 40,500 figure describes many state polls added together and weighted, not one national sample — a method with wider, uneven error margins. The Rio Times tracks every institute in its Brazil election polls tracker and covered the latest Datafolha numbers separately.
What It Means With 13 Days to Go
For voters, the practical picture has not changed since last week: the first round on 4 October is competitive, and a runoff on 25 October is the expectation of every major institute. What is moving is the direction of travel. Four of five active pollsters now show the challenger ahead in at least one simulation, and Cury’s double-digit score in Veritá’s registered poll adds a new variable to the final two weeks of campaigning.
For expats and investors, the poll divergence itself is the signal to watch. Trading desks price an average of institutes, not any single survey, and the widening spread between Datafolha and the field is likely to keep volatility in the real and the Bovespa elevated into the vote. The real traded near 5.15 per US dollar last week, with the Selic rate (Brazil’s benchmark interest rate) at 13.75 percent.
What We Could Not Confirm
Whether Veritá’s consolidated runoff figure matches the 48.5-to-43.1 result of its registered national poll — the institute’s consolidation release emphasizes first-round valid votes. How the mid-September events in Brasília have shifted sentiment since the registered poll left the field on 4 September. And whether other institutes will publish fresh national rounds on Monday, 21 September — PoderData’s next weekly wave is expected but not confirmed.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the new Veritá poll say about Lula versus Flávio Bolsonaro?
Veritá’s national poll, released on 20 September 2026, puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 38.9 percent and Lula at 38.4 percent in the first round — a technical tie. In a runoff simulation it shows Flávio at 48.5 percent against Lula’s 43.1 percent.
How was the Veritá poll conducted?
The registered national poll heard 3,804 voters from 1 to 4 September 2026, with a two-point margin of error, under TSE protocol BR-09426/2026. A second release consolidated 40,500 state-level interviews from 10 to 19 September, weighted by state electorates.
Do other pollsters agree with Veritá?
Mostly. Quaest (42–40), AtlasIntel (47.2–46.8) and PoderData (47–45) also show Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead in runoff simulations. Datafolha disagrees, holding Lula at 46–44. All figures date from mid-September 2026.
When is the Brazilian election?
The first round takes place on Sunday, 4 October 2026. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, the top two meet in a runoff on Sunday, 25 October 2026.
Sources: Instituto Veritá national poll release via Canal Terra Livre (20 September 2026); Veritá state-series consolidation via Rádio Guaçu de Toledo and Tubanews (21 September 2026); TSE registrations BR-09426/2026 (national) and state protocols; Quaest via Gazeta do Povo; AtlasIntel via Bloomberg; Datafolha (17 September 2026); PoderData/Aya (17 September 2026). FX basis: USD/BRL 5.15, 18 September 2026.
More: Brazil election 2026 coverage from The Rio Times.
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