The Institute for Health Policy Studies (IEPS), a Brazilian health-policy think tank, said on Friday 13 November 2026 that El Niño was linked to at least 42,200 additional deaths of people aged 60 and over in Brazil between 2000 and 2024. El Niño is a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean that changes weather worldwide and brings extra heat to much of Brazil.
US readers with ties to Brazil, as travellers, retirees or investors, may care because the study points to heat as a risk for older people. El Niño also affects crops and commodities, although this note does not measure that.
Key Facts
—Estimate. At least 42,200 additional deaths of people aged 60 and over in Brazil, 2000 to 2024.
—Strongest signal. Elderly mortality rose 4.1% in the Northeast coast and Agreste, the semi-arid inland belt, and 3.4% in the North.
—No effect found. The Equatorial zone showed no detectable effect on elderly mortality.
—Caveat. An association, not proven causation; the summary pages state no confidence range.
A Brazilian think tank estimates that El Niño heat is associated with at least 42,200 extra deaths of older people from 2000 to 2024.
What The Study Found
The authors counted deaths of people aged 60 and over in all 5,570 Brazilian municipalities from 2000 to 2024, across seven El Niño episodes. They used ERA5, the European climate reanalysis dataset, to match each month’s weather to local mortality.
Total elderly mortality rose between 0.7% and 4.1% in three of four tropical climate zones, compared with the temperate South. The largest rise was 4.1% in the Coastal and Agreste Northeast, where the Agreste is the semi-arid belt inland from the coast, followed by 3.4% in the North and 0.7% in the centre of the country.
The Equatorial zone showed no detectable effect. Deaths from non-communicable diseases, such as heart disease, also rose between 1.1% and 3.4%.
The IEPS headline reads “at least 42 thousand additional deaths of older people”. The figure is a floor, since the note says “at least”.
El Niño months brought more days above 35°C and more heat waves. The researchers present these results as an association, not proven causation.
Why It Matters For Brazil And Beyond
The authors are Bernardo Jazra, an IEPS researcher, Guilherme Cabrine of the graduate economics school of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), a Brazilian university, and Rudi Rocha, IEPS research director and a professor at FGV’s business school. The study was released with the support of Instituto Itaúsa.
The comparison group is the South of Brazil, which has the mildest climate and the least exposure to El Niño heat. Each tropical zone was compared with the South in the same month and year, so a gap between the two points to El Niño heat.
Primary-care coverage, meaning local first-line health services, was associated with a smaller effect in all tropical zones except the Equatorial one. There, access to urgent and emergency care matters more.
Older people are more at risk from heat, the study indicates, and Brazil’s ageing population makes this a question for the health system and the economy. Our earlier piece on a separate study of El Niño heat deaths, Strong El Niño Adds 107,000 Heat Deaths, looks at the same subject separately.
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| VALE3 | 63.84 | -0.17% | -2.80% | 63.95 | 64.24 | 63.75 | 1,014,600 |
| ITUB4 | 41.91 | +0.55% | +6.62% | 41.68 | 42.17 | 41.62 | 2,062,900 |
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| BBAS3 | 15.07 | -2.65% | -33.07% | 15.48 | 15.60 | 14.98 | 27,915,100 |
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| ABEV3 | 15.71 | -0.25% | +15.11% | 15.75 | 15.80 | 15.64 | 564,500 |
| WEGE3 | 51.56 | -0.17% | +14.90% | 51.65 | 52.05 | 50.93 | 1,085,500 |
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| SUZB3 | 55.71 | -0.59% | +16.93% | 56.04 | 55.98 | 55.48 | 347,800 |
| RENT3 | 29.97 | +1.32% | -28.71% | 29.58 | 30.19 | 29.58 | 1,187,500 |
| AZZA3 | 16.70 | -1.18% | -43.29% | 16.90 | 17.10 | 16.32 | 752,100 |
| CSNA3 | 4.00 | -5.44% | -53.54% | 4.23 | 4.14 | 3.95 | 8,901,400 |
| GGBR4 | 25.01 | +0.16% | +32.15% | 24.97 | 25.09 | 24.73 | 365,400 |
| ENEV3 | 26.74 | -0.96% | +38.57% | 27.00 | 27.09 | 26.73 | 850,800 |
What Is Not Known
The summary pages state no confidence interval, so the uncertainty around the 42,200 figure is unclear. The full methods sit in the note’s PDF, and it is not known whether this technical note has been peer reviewed.
It is also not known how many additional deaths to expect in the current El Niño. Nor is it known whether Brazilian cities have heat plans for older residents.
What To Watch Next
The study does not forecast deaths for this year, and we do not either. The open points to follow are the full methods and any confidence range.
Readers who follow the country can find more coverage in our Brazil news section. The IEPS technical note and its launch page remain the primary documents.
Sources
Primary sources: IEPS Technical Note 46, El Niño impact on health and mortality in Brazil; IEPS launch page for Technical Note 46.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many elderly deaths does the study link to El Niño?
The IEPS study estimates at least 42,200 additional deaths of people aged 60 and over in Brazil between 2000 and 2024, across seven El Niño episodes.
Does the study prove El Niño caused these deaths?
No. The authors present an association, not proven causation, and the summary pages report no confidence interval.
Which parts of Brazil were most affected?
Elderly mortality rose 4.1% in the Coastal and Agreste Northeast and 3.4% in the North. The centre of the country saw 0.7%, and the Equatorial zone showed no detectable effect.
What is El Niño?
It is a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean that changes weather worldwide. In Brazil it brings extra heat to much of the country.
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