Brazil Datafolha Polls Show Tight Senate Races
POLITICS · BRAZIL
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil holds general elections on Sunday 4 October 2026. Voters fill 54 of the 81 seats in the Senate, the upper house of Congress, two per state.
- —What happened On 1 October 2026 the pollster published Datafolha Senate polls for São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Pernambuco and the Federal District (Brasília).
- —The numbers Leaders, as of fieldwork 28 September to 1 October: Michelle Bolsonaro 23% (Federal District), Benedita da Silva 19% (Rio), Marília Arraes and Humberto Costa 19% each (Pernambuco), Marina Silva 16% (São Paulo).
- —What it means for you In most of these states the second seat, and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais both seats, sit inside the margin of error. The future Senate balance is genuinely open.
- —Still open Between 38% and 61% of voters named no candidate when asked without a list, so late decisions could still reorder the races.
The last Datafolha Senate polls before Sunday’s vote show tight races in five of Brazil’s biggest electorates. The pollster released them on 1 October, commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo.
The Federal District and Rio de Janeiro have clear leaders, and Pernambuco a clear front pair. São Paulo and Minas Gerais are four-way ties, and many voters remain undecided.
Two votes, two seats
This year each state elects two senators for eight-year terms, and every voter must pick two different names. Datafolha combines both answers into one total that adds up to 100 percent.
That method matters for reading the figures. A candidate on 19 percent has the support of roughly one in five ballots cast, not one in five voters.
São Paulo and Minas Gerais: four-way ties
In São Paulo, Marina Silva (Rede) has 16 percent, André do Prado (PL) and Simone Tebet (PSB) 15 each, and Guilherme Derrite (PP) 14. Datafolha interviewed 1,610 voters, with a margin of two points.
Prado and Derrite each rose from 12 percent in the 24 September poll. Ricardo Salles (Novo) quit the race on 28 September and backed both, as Brazil’s Right Unites in São Paulo Senate Race as a Bolsonaro Son Struggles reported.
Minas Gerais shows a similar picture. Marília Campos (PT) has 13 percent, Carlos Viana (PSD) and Aécio Neves (PSDB) 11 each, and Domingos Sávio (PL) 9, all unchanged from the previous round.
Rio, Pernambuco and the capital
In Rio de Janeiro, Benedita da Silva (PT) leads with 19 percent. Carlos Portinho and Carlos Jordy, both of the Liberal Party (PL), have 13 each, technically tied with Pedro Paulo (PSD) on 8.
Pernambuco has a two-way tie at the top. Marília Arraes (PDT) and Humberto Costa (PT) both have 19 percent, ahead of Mendonça Filho (PL) on 12 and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) on 10.
In the Federal District, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) has 23 percent. Bia Kicis (PL) and Leila do Vôlei (PDT) are tied on 18 for the second seat, with Erika Kokay (PT) on 13.
Kicis gained three points since the previous Datafolha round, while Kokay lost two. The sample there was smaller, at 910 people.
What the rules allow until Sunday
Under the 2026 poll rules of the TSE, the Superior Electoral Court, registered surveys may be published up to and including election day. Each one must be filed with the electoral courts five days before release, which is why every Datafolha figure carries a registration number.
Polls taken on election day itself may only be released from 17:00 Brasília time, the court says. That keeps exit-poll figures off screens until voting closes.
The polls also echo a wider mood. A recent Datafolha survey found that only 18 percent rate the current Congress well.
What Is Not Yet Known
The share of undecided voters remains high. Asked without a candidate list, 61 percent in Minas Gerais and 53 percent in São Paulo named nobody, against 38 percent in the Federal District.
The Datafolha Senate polls this week did not cover Amazonas, Paraíba or Tocantins. How second votes split between allies, as in São Paulo, is the main unknown for Sunday’s count.
Sources: Datafolha state Senate polls released 1 October 2026 (registrations SP-01367/2026, MG-09729/2026, RJ-02070/2026, PE-06822/2026, DF-00905/2026), as reported by CartaCapital, Folha de S.Paulo and g1 (Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Pernambuco, Federal District); Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Resolution 23.600/2019 on polls, as amended by Resolution 23.747/2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief