Ceará Poll Puts Elmano on 49% and Ciro Gomes on 47.6% Before Brazil Vote
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- —The numbers AtlasIntel puts Elmano de Freitas on 49% and Ciro Gomes on 47.6% in the first round, in fieldwork from 23 to 28 September 2026.
- —The margin The margin of error is two percentage points either way, so the 1.4-point gap is a statistical tie.
- —Valid votes Counting only valid votes, Elmano has 50.3% and Ciro 48.9%, according to the AtlasIntel survey.
- —The runoff In a head-to-head second round, AtlasIntel has Elmano on 49.6% and Ciro on 48.6%.
- —The calendar Brazil votes on Sunday, 4 October 2026; a runoff, if needed, is held on 25 October.
The latest AtlasIntel Ceará poll before Sunday’s election shows a race for governor too close to call, with the incumbent just ahead.
A new Ceará poll by AtlasIntel puts Governor Elmano de Freitas on 49% in the first round. Former governor Ciro Gomes has 47.6%. The Brazilian state votes on Sunday, 4 October 2026, and the gap sits inside the poll’s margin of error.
Ceará Poll: A Race Inside the Margin
AtlasIntel, a polling company, interviewed 1,808 voters in Ceará between 23 and 28 September. The media group Focus commissioned the survey, and the business outlet Exame reported it on 30 September.
The margin of error is two percentage points either way, at a 95% confidence level. A gap of 1.4 points is therefore a statistical tie, not a lead.
Ceará is a state of Brazil’s Northeast, with its capital in Fortaleza. The poll is registered with the electoral court under the number CE-01709/2026.
Almost nobody else registers in the survey. Delegado Huggo of the small Missão party has 0.4%, and blank or spoiled votes add up to 2.2%.
Why the 50% Line Matters
In Brazil, a candidate for governor wins in the first round only with more than half of the valid votes. Blank and spoiled ballots do not count as valid.
On that measure, AtlasIntel puts Elmano on 50.3% and Ciro on 48.9%. If the result stayed exactly there, Elmano would win on Sunday without a runoff.
The margin of error is larger than that 0.3-point cushion, though. A second round on 25 October remains just as plausible as a first-round win.
In a simulated runoff, the poll gives Elmano 49.6% and Ciro 48.6%. Counting only valid votes, that becomes 50.5% against 49.5%.
How the Race Has Moved Since June
The trend favours the governor. In June, AtlasIntel had Ciro narrowly ahead, on 45.8% against 44.8%, and clearly ahead in a runoff, on 53.2% against 44.9%.
By the AtlasIntel round of 15 to 20 September, Elmano led 48.5% to 48%. The latest round adds half a point for him and takes 0.4 points from Ciro.
Other pollsters see the same tie but a different order. Quaest, surveying 19 to 22 September, had Ciro on 43% and Elmano on 41%.
Datafolha, published on 25 September, put Ciro on 44% and Elmano on 43%. All three surveys fall within their margins, so no pollster shows a clear favourite.
Two Familiar Names, Two Different Camps
Elmano de Freitas has governed Ceará since January 2023. He belongs to the Workers’ Party (PT) of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He is seeking a second term with Lula’s backing.
His campaign points to new formal jobs and a fall in violent deaths in the first half of 2026. Security remains a sensitive issue for many voters, however.
Ciro Gomes governed Ceará from 1991 to 1994 and later served as a federal minister. He has run for president several times, most recently in 2022, when he finished fourth.
He now runs for the centre-right PSDB, the Brazilian Social Democracy Party. His alliance includes União Brasil and the PL, the populist-right party of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
A Family Split and a Divided Electorate
The race also divides one of Ceará’s best-known political families. Ciro’s brother Cid Gomes, himself a former governor, campaigns on Elmano’s side.
Ciro says he is neither a supporter of Lula nor of Bolsonaro, and he keeps national issues out of his campaign. He focuses on security, health care and jobs.
The AtlasIntel figures show sharp divides between groups. Elmano leads among women with 56.2% and among voters aged 60 and over with 70.6%.
Ciro leads among men with 57.4%, among voters aged 16 to 24 with 59.1%, and among evangelical Christians with 70.5%.
What Ceará Says About Brazil’s National Race
Brazilians elect their president, governors and Congress on the same day. Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and Jair Bolsonaro’s son, in the presidential race.
Nationally, many voters are still undecided: one survey found that 31.5% of voters may switch their presidential vote before Sunday. In the south, a Rio Grande do Sul poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula.
Ceará shows the same pattern of a tight contest. Earlier this month, a Real Time Big Data runoff poll also had Elmano narrowly ahead, on 48% against 45%.
A governor elected on Lula’s side would give the PT a strong base in the Northeast. A Ciro victory would hand the state to an alliance that includes Bolsonaro’s party.
What Comes Next
Polls measure intentions, not turnout. Voting is compulsory in Brazil, yet nobody has a reliable estimate of how many Ceará voters will stay home.
Polling stations open on Sunday, 4 October, and results usually arrive the same evening. If no one passes 50% of valid votes, Ceará returns to the ballot box on 25 October.
More: Brazil Elections 2026 news, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading the Ceará poll for governor?
AtlasIntel puts Governor Elmano de Freitas on 49% and Ciro Gomes on 47.6% in fieldwork from 23 to 28 September 2026. The two-point margin of error makes it a statistical tie.
Can the Ceará governor’s race end on 4 October?
Yes, if one candidate wins more than half of the valid votes. AtlasIntel has Elmano on 50.3% of valid votes. That cushion is smaller than the margin of error, so a runoff on 25 October is equally possible.
Why do different polls show different leaders in Ceará?
Pollsters use different methods, samples and dates. AtlasIntel recruits respondents online, and its survey shows Elmano ahead. Quaest and Datafolha showed Ciro one or two points ahead in late September.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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