Argentina’s Narrow Dollar Spreads Face a January Reality Check

Key Points

1. The blue dollar opened December 22 close to the official retail sell rate.
2. A clearer 2026 FX rulebook is supporting risk assets, for now.
3. Thin FX liquidity and a large January maturity remain the real tests.

Early Monday, wholesale (mayorista) traded near 1,454–1,455 per dollar; the offshore print was near 1,448.5. Retail (oficial) was about 1,425 (buy) / 1,475 (sell).

The blue dollar was near 1,465 / 1,485. MEP was around 1,495.36 / 1,497.15 and CCL about 1,542.14 / 1,547.49. Friday, December 19 ended with wholesale near 1,455, retail around 1,474.62, blue near 1,490, MEP about 1,513.84, and CCL around 1,561.35.

Against wholesale this morning, premia are roughly 2% (blue), 3% (MEP), and 6% (CCL). DXY was about 98.6, roughly unchanged from Friday.

The policy anchor is the central bank’s 2026 redesign: an FX band indexed to inflation (not a fixed crawl) plus a rules-based reserve-accumulation plan to reduce overvaluation risk and rebuild buffers.

Depth is thin: average daily FX volume has been cited around $200 million lately versus about $600 million previously.

On USD/ARS, the 4H RSI is about 55.9 and the MACD histogram slightly negative; resistance clusters near 1,450–1,453, with support around 1,441–1,445 and 1,437.6.

Daily RSI is about 55.9 with MACD slightly positive. Weekly RSI is near 61.5, while the weekly MACD histogram is negative.

Equities are similar. The S&P Merval was around 3,139,466 and closed Friday at 3,139,466.65, down about 0.75% (roughly -0.8%), with Banco de Valores, BYMA and Grupo Financiero Galicia among notable gainers.

Merval 4H RSI is about 63.6 with MACD above signal; daily RSI near 65 with a negative MACD histogram; weekly RSI about 68 with a strongly positive weekly MACD.

Offshore, ARGT ended Friday near $91.31 (+0.22%). Flows were -$8.66 million (5 days), +$7.32 million (1 month), and -$67.08 million (3 months), with AUM around $743 million.

Bond sentiment has tightened, with hard-currency sovereign gains and country risk cited around the mid-500s. The next hard test is January 9: a maturity above $4.2 billion will probe refinancing options, including repos, and whether today’s narrow dollar gaps can hold.