Argentina Markets: Merval & the Peso — July 31, 2026

01 The session in one read

Argentina’s Merval index — the benchmark that tracks the most valuable companies listed in Buenos Aires — rose 2.22% on Thursday to end at 3,304,918 points, its best close of the week. The gain pushed the local market deeper into a rally that has become one of the world’s standout equity stories since President Javier Milei took office in late 2023.

The peso firmed alongside equities, gaining 0.43% to 1,489 per US dollar in official trading. At that level the currency sits just 0.7% below its strongest point of the past 12 months, a position that would have seemed fanciful during the hyperinflation scares of 2023.

Bank shares were the engine room. Grupo Galicia, the country’s largest private-sector lender by market capitalisation, climbed 2.8% on $11m of turnover — a sum that signals institutional participation, not just retail punting. Energy stocks followed closely: Pampa Energía rose 3.1% and state-controlled oil giant YPF added 1.9%, each on $4m and $11m of volume respectively.

The session reflected a market that increasingly believes the Milei administration’s shock-therapy approach — sharp spending cuts, deregulation and a strict crawl on the official exchange rate — is delivering the macroeconomic stability it promised. Country risk, a closely watched gauge of how nervous bondholders feel about lending to Argentina, continued to grind lower, flirting with levels last seen in the first quarter of 2025.

02 The day’s numbers

The Merval’s close above 3.3 million points pushed the index cleanly past a psychological barrier that had capped two earlier rallies this month. While the 52-week high wasn’t formally tested, the benchmark is now within striking distance of the all-time peaks that followed Milei’s election victory.

The official peso rate of 1,489 per dollar keeps the currency within a tight band that the central bank has managed through a controlled crawling peg — a system where the peso is allowed to weaken at a slower pace than inflation. That the rate is just 0.7% from the 52-week strong end of its 1,292-1,500 range tells you the formal market is absorbing dollar supply reasonably well.

03 Why it moved — the reform trade re-ignites

Thursday’s advance had a clear signature: financials and energy. That pairing is the textbook Milei reform trade because it expresses two central beliefs — that Argentina’s banks will benefit from a normalising, low-inflation economy where credit can expand, and that its vast energy resources, particularly the Vaca Muerta shale formation, will attract foreign capital once regulations are stripped back.

Grupo Galicia’s 2.8% rise with $11m of volume was the session’s loudest domestic story. The lender is seen as a direct proxy for Argentina’s economic normalisation: it holds more loans and deposits than almost any private rival, so any improvement in consumer and business confidence flows straight to its bottom line.

Pampa Energía and Central Puerto, both up sharply, represent the electricity-generation side of the reform wager. They stand to gain if Milei’s government succeeds in unwinding the costly energy subsidies that have distorted the sector for decades, allowing utilities to charge market prices.

YPF, up 1.9% on heavy turnover, adds the oil dimension. The state-backed producer is the largest operator in Vaca Muerta, the Patagonian shale play that many analysts compare to America’s Permian Basin. A friendlier investment framework could unlock the kind of productivity gains that transformed the US oil patch.

04 The day’s movers

The leaderboard was split between domestic reform bets and a handful of US tech CEDEARs that took their cue from Wall Street. Among genuine Argentine shares, Pampa Energía’s 3.1% gain on $4m of volume stood out, as did the two heavyweights — Grupo Galicia and YPF — each managing $11m in turnover. Those sums aren’t retail noise; they reflect serious positioning.

Microsoft’s Buenos Aires listing topped the turnover table at $53m and surged 14.1%, but smart readers know this is a CEDEAR — a local certificate that tracks the US share — and therefore mirrors the S&P 500’s post-earnings mood rather than anything Argentine. We flag it so you don’t misread it as a domestic story.

05 The regional scoreboard

Latin America’s equity markets enjoyed a collective bounce on Thursday, lifted by a broad global risk-on tone after a benign US inflation reading. The Merval’s 2.22% jump put it at the head of the regional pack, outpacing Brazil’s Ibovespa which rose 1.88% to 177,159, and Mexico’s IPC which gained 1.28% to 67,327.

Chile’s IPSA advanced 0.87% to 11,031, while Colombia’s COLCAP gained 1.64% to 2,342. Every major Latin American currency firmed against the dollar, with the Brazilian real leading the pack at a 1.14% gain to 5.0593 per dollar. The live market board above carries the latest closes for all regional benchmarks.

06 The technical picture

The Merval’s push above 3.3 million is technically important because it breaks a ceiling that had contained the index for several sessions. A confirmed weekly close above this level would turn it into new support, potentially opening the way toward the all-time highs recorded during the initial Milei-election euphoria.

Volume provides comfort. The heaviest trading was concentrated in names that reflect a genuine economic recovery wager — banks, energy producers and utilities — rather than in speculative punts on cornered stocks. That broad participation makes the breakout more credible than a narrow, liquidity-driven spike.

07 What to watch

• Congressional calendar: The next phase of Milei’s legislative programme — particularly bills on energy subsidy reform and labour market flexibility — will determine whether the rally can sustain its pace into August.
• Parallel exchange rate gap: The spread between the official peso at 1,489 and the more freely traded blue-chip swap rate is a real-time gauge of market trust. A narrowing gap supports equities; a widening one warns of capital-flight risk.
• Vaca Muerta production data: Monthly output figures for the shale basin, expected in the second week of August, will either validate or challenge the energy-sector thesis that has lifted YPF, Pampa, and Central Puerto.
• US Federal Reserve tone: Argentina’s reform trade benefits from a weak dollar and low global rates. Any hawkish shift from the Fed would tighten financial conditions and test the peso’s stability.

Background: Argentina’s Central Bank Opens Door to Dollar Payroll Accounts.

Background: IMF’s Georgieva Heads to Argentina: Reserves Yes, Fiscal Doubts.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Merval?

The Merval is Argentina’s benchmark stock index, tracking the largest and most liquid companies listed on the Buenos Aires stock exchange. It is weighted towards banks, energy firms and a handful of industrials.

Why do bank shares dominate Argentina’s market?

Because Argentina’s economy is only now rebuilding its credit culture after decades of inflation and default. Banks like Grupo Galicia and Banco Macro are seen as direct bets on a return to normal lending, which makes them highly sensitive to reform progress.

What is a CEDEAR?

A CEDEAR is a certificate issued by Argentine banks that tracks a foreign share, typically a US stock like Apple or Microsoft. It trades locally in pesos but its price moves mainly reflect the foreign share and the exchange rate.

What does country risk mean?

Country risk measures the extra yield bond investors demand to hold Argentine government debt instead of safe US Treasuries. A falling number signals that markets see lower risk of default and is typically bullish for stocks and the peso.

LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.