Argentina Markets: Merval and the Peso, September 18, 2026
Key Facts
- The S&P Merval rose 1.08% to 3,061,512 points, with the broader S&P BYMA general index up 0.67% on the session.
- INDEC reported the economy shrank 0.6% in the second quarter, and unemployment rose to 7.9%, the highest reading since 2021.
- Country risk climbed to 515 basis-point equivalents, its highest level since 26 August, even as share prices rose.
- The wholesale dollar eased to 1,510 pesos, down 0.18%, from 1,512.75, while the parallel rate slipped about five pesos to roughly 1,555.
- The Senate converted the second inocencia fiscal bill into law by 44 votes to 23, raising the threshold at which the tax agency may question undeclared holdings.
- Trade figures for August are published at four this afternoon, with forecasts near US$2.055 billion against a July surplus of US$2.115 billion.
Today’s Focus
Argentina produced two incompatible stories on Thursday and the market chose the cheerful one. The Merval rose 1.08% to 3,061,512 points while the statistics institute reported a shrinking economy.
Second-quarter output fell 0.6% from the previous quarter, though it was still 2.0% higher than a year earlier. Unemployment rose to 7.9%, the highest since 2021.
That means roughly 1.8 million people out of work. A further 10.2 million are in informal employment, about 45% of the workforce.
Country risk told the same story as the data rather than the share prices. It reached 515, the highest reading of the month, on a session the index gained.
The legislative news was the market’s preferred subject. The Senate turned the second inocencia fiscal bill into law by 44 votes to 23.
What matters today. Whether this afternoon’s trade surplus confirms that the external account is holding while domestic demand weakens. That gap is the whole Argentine trade right now.
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 185,992.03 | +0.24% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,637.76 | +1.14% |
| Nasdaq Composite (US) | 26,418 | +1.69% |
| VIX (US volatility) | 15.44 | -12.82% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1289 | -0.48% |
| Gold (per ounce) | US$4,346.42 | +1.74% |
| Silver (per ounce) | US$65.43 | +3.44% |
| Oil fund (USO) | US$155.31 | -0.55% |
Thursday, 17 September 2026 close. Gold, silver and the oil fund in US dollars.
01 The session in one read
The Merval and the macro data pointed in opposite directions on Thursday. Equity investors were pricing a tax amnesty and a friendlier regulatory line rather than second-quarter output.
That is a defensible position and a fragile one. It holds while foreign appetite for Argentine risk holds, and country risk at 515 says that appetite is thinning.
The dollar-denominated view strips out the peso and the index arithmetic. In those terms Argentine equities have drifted lower since early September rather than rallied.
The fund closed at US$93.84 on Thursday, up 0.49%, against US$96.88 a week earlier. That is a fall of about three percent while the peso index was rising.
That divergence is the honest measure of the week. A peso index at three million points flatters a market that foreign money has been leaving.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval | 3,061,512 | +1.08% | A third session of gains |
| S&P BYMA general | — | +0.67% | Broader market lagged the leaders |
| USD/ARS (wholesale) | 1,510 | -0.18% | Eased from 1,512.75 the day before |
| Parallel dollar | ≈1,555 | -0.32% | Down about five pesos on the day |
| Country risk | 515 | + | Highest since 26 August |
| Central bank reserves | US$49.816bn | -US$184m | The bank bought US$9m in the spot market |
The reserves line is the one to keep. A fall of 184 million dollars on a day the central bank bought nine million in the market tells you where the pressure sits.
The currency was quiet in both markets. A parallel rate near 1,555 against a wholesale rate of 1,510 leaves the gap around three percent.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
+1.08%
185,992.03
+0.24%
63,873.32
+0.58%
11,381.18
+1.30%
3,061,512
+1.08%
2,521.85
+0.40%
58,965.05
+1.80%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,061,512 | +1.08% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
03 Why it moved — a tax law, not a growth number
The second inocencia fiscal law passed the Senate by 44 votes to 23. Discrepancies of 15% or more that fall below five million pesos no longer trigger scrutiny from the tax agency.
It also widens the simplified income-tax regime. The benefits expire on 31 December 2027, which makes this a window rather than a permanent change.
The intent is to draw undeclared dollars into the financial system. For equity investors that means deposits, credit and bank earnings rather than an abstract fiscal argument.
A second bill passed the same day and is often confused with it. The biofuels reform won only a first-chamber approval by 41 votes to 25 and now goes to the Chamber of Deputies.
04 The day’s movers
| Stock | Move | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Satellogic | +11.3% | Best performer of the session |
| Cresud | +6.3% | Farmland group among the leaders |
| IRSA | +5.6% | Property arm followed its parent higher |
| Central Puerto | +5.5% | Power generator in the top five |
| Vista Energy | -1.1% | Among the day’s biggest losers |
| YPF | -0.5% | State oil company slipped with Pampa at -0.7% |
Energy names were the weak spot on a strong day. Vista, YPF and Pampa all fell while property and agriculture led.
That split follows the oil price rather than anything domestic. Brent has now fallen for two sessions as Saudi Arabia works around its damaged export pipeline.
Banks were mixed rather than weak. Grupo Galicia added 0.7% in a session led by property and satellite names instead of financials.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Market | Close | Session | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 185,992.03 | +0.24% | Recovered from an intraday fall of 1.24% |
| S&P/BMV IPC (Mexico) | 63,873 | +0.58% | First session after Independence Day |
| S&P Merval (Argentina) | 3,061,512 | +1.08% | Rose while country risk climbed to 515 points |
| S&P IPSA (Chile) | 11,381 | +1.30% | Shortened session, closing at one in the afternoon |
| MSCI COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,521.85 | +0.40% | Index up while the peso weakened |
Argentina’s gain was the second largest in the region after Chile’s. Every major regional index rose, so the direction was shared across Latin America.
The Argentine peso was among the steadier currencies on the day. It eased 0.18% against a dollar that barely moved on the global index.
06 The data that did not move the market
Manufacturing output fell 2.1% in the second quarter and public administration 1.4%. Fishing rose 44.7%, mining 16.4% and agriculture 6.9%.
That is the shape of an economy rebalancing towards exports and away from domestic production. It also explains why a trade surplus can sit beside falling output.
This afternoon’s August trade figures will test that reading. Forecasts point to a surplus near US$2.055 billion against July’s US$2.115 billion.
A budget balance figure is also due earlier in the afternoon. The previous reading was a surplus of 2,960 million pesos, about US$1.96 million at the wholesale rate.
Together those two releases describe the government’s core claim. Argentina can run a fiscal surplus and a trade surplus at the same time, and the cost of doing so is domestic demand.
The second-quarter numbers put a figure on that cost. Output fell 0.6% and unemployment reached its highest level in five years.
07 What to watch
- The trade balance at four: A surplus near US$2.055 billion would keep the external account intact in a quarter of falling output.
- Country risk at 515: Any further rise would start to contradict the equity market’s optimism.
- Central bank reserves: They fell US$184 million on Thursday even as the bank bought dollars in the spot market.
- The biofuels bill: It has only a first-chamber approval and still needs the Chamber of Deputies.
- Energy names: Vista, YPF and Pampa all fell with crude and remain the market’s soft spot.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where did the Merval close on 17 September 2026?
The S&P Merval closed at 3,061,512 points, up 1.08%. The broader S&P BYMA general index rose 0.67%.
What did Argentina’s second-quarter data show?
INDEC reported output down 0.6% from the previous quarter and up 2.0% from a year earlier. Unemployment rose to 7.9%, the highest since 2021.
What is the Argentine peso worth?
The wholesale rate closed at 1,510 pesos to the dollar, down 0.18% from 1,512.75. The parallel rate eased about five pesos to roughly 1,555.
What is the inocencia fiscal law?
The Senate passed it by 44 votes to 23 on 17 September. It raises the threshold at which the tax agency may question undeclared holdings, with benefits expiring on 31 December 2027.
Did the biofuels bill become law?
No. The Senate gave it a first-chamber approval by 41 votes to 25 on 17 September, and it now goes to the Chamber of Deputies.
What Argentine data is due today?
The statistics institute publishes August trade figures at four in the afternoon in Buenos Aires. Forecasts point to a surplus near US$2.055 billion.
Sources: Infobae and EFE closing reports for 17 September 2026; INDEC second-quarter national accounts and labour-market releases; La Nación, Cadena 3 and Parlamentario on the Senate votes; Banco Central de la República Argentina reserve data; RT end-of-day series and economic calendar.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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