ARGENTINA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —What is happening FIX, the Argentine affiliate of Fitch Ratings, projects 2027 inflation of 19.1% if the ruling party is re-elected calmly and 26.6% if it arrives weaker.
- —Why it matters The gap shows what political risk before the 2027 presidential vote could cost Argentine savers and investors in prices, interest rates and the dollar.
- —The numbers The official dollar would end 2027 near 2,071 pesos per US$1 in the calm case and 2,256 in the weak case, against about 1,527 on 22 October.
- —Who is who FIX is Fitch’s local rating affiliate in Argentina. Javier Milei is president, Luis Caputo is economy minister and Axel Kicillof is the Peronist governor of Buenos Aires province.
- —What to watch Whether peso interest rates and demand for dollars climb as the vote nears, and whether FIX publishes updated scenario figures.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Javier Milei a 47.5% chance of winning the 2027 presidential election and Axel Kicillof 32.5% (22 October, 2:24 a.m. ET).
- —Power Index Argentina ranks 4th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 61.2 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you For US holders of Argentine bonds and shares, or anyone paying bills in pesos, FIX’s weak case means a dollar about 48% dearer in pesos than today and faster price rises.
Argentina inflation could end 2027 at 19.1% or 26.6%, FIX says. The gap depends on how weak the ruling party arrives at the presidential vote.
Argentina inflation could run at 19.1% or 26.6% in 2027, according to FIX, depending on how the ruling party enters the vote. FIX SCR is the Argentine affiliate of Fitch Ratings, the US credit rating firm.
The business outlet El Economista in Buenos Aires set out the two scenarios on Wednesday, 21 October. The forecasts matter to US holders of Argentine bonds and shares, and to anyone who pays bills in pesos.
What FIX Forecasts for Argentina Inflation
In the base case, FIX expects the ruling party to be re-elected without major surprises. Inflation would run at 19.1% in 2027, or about 1.4% a month, the outlet reports.
In the alternative case, the government reaches the vote weaker, and prices rise 26.6% in 2027. That is about 2% a month, and the path starts from a higher 2026.
FIX puts 2026 inflation at about 29.8% in the base case and about 31.5% in the alternative, El Cronista reported in September. Both paths share the same starting economy, El Economista notes the primary surplus holds.
The Dollar and Interest Rates in Each Scenario
FIX sees the official wholesale dollar ending 2027 at 2,071 pesos per US$1 in the base case, up 26.5% from December 2026. In the alternative it ends at 2,256 pesos, about 34.5% higher.
The peso traded near 1,527 per US$1 on 22 October, by the open.er-api.com rate. At 2,071 the peso would buy about 26% fewer dollars, and at 2,256 about 32% fewer.
TAMAR, a benchmark rate on large peso deposits, would average about 27% in 2027 in the base case, ending at 18%. In the alternative it averages 33% and ends at 27.5%.
Growth would also differ. FIX shows roughly 1.5% in the alternative case against roughly 2.5% in the base case, about one point lower.
Why FIX Sees Vote Risk
FIX expects savers and companies to buy dollars as the vote nears, even in the base case. That would press the exchange rate, central bank reserves and interest rates, La Política Online reported in September.
In the weaker case, the 21 October article says, the central bank and Treasury would lean on high rates and short-term debt. That would squeeze household credit and growth just when the government needs political support.
FIX keeps a primary budget surplus in both cases, with real spending held down. The RIGI investment incentive regime for large projects and a strong farm sector support growth in both.
The headline uses the slang phrase “riesgo kuka”, a term critics of Peronism use for the risk of a Kirchnerite comeback. The article says the FIX report itself does not discuss candidates or opposition parties.
The Political Backdrop
President Javier Milei’s government, with economy minister Luis Caputo, has made falling inflation its main selling point. The scenarios ask what happens to that record if the 2027 contest turns tight.
Axel Kicillof, governor of Buenos Aires province, is the Peronist challenger most often named in polls and betting markets. FIX does not name him or any other candidate.
What It Means for US Readers
US investors in Argentine bonds and in New York-listed Argentine shares should watch peso rates and the dollar as the vote nears. FIX’s base case already assumes pressure on both.
The scenarios are not a rating action, and the reports describe no change to Argentina’s credit rating. US residents or retirees who spend pesos face prices that FIX expects to rise 19.1% or 26.6% in 2027.
Background is in earlier reports on the 2027 election, September inflation, the peso carry trade and devaluation risks. More coverage is on the Argentina news hub.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s 2027 Argentina presidential winner market gives Javier Milei 47.5% and Axel Kicillof 32.5% (2:24 a.m. ET on 22 October). The event has drawn about US$1.05 million in bets, and the prices are bets, not polls.
The Milei contract alone has traded about US$269,000, and the Kicillof contract about US$143,000. The market does not price inflation or the dollar, so it is context for the vote risk, not a check on FIX.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The FIX report itself could not be opened, because the agency’s site shows no public copy. The figures here rest on three Argentine outlets named in the sources.
The outlets differ on the base case. The 21 October article prints a 2027 base dollar of 2,021 pesos and growth of 2.4%, against 2,071 pesos and 2.5% elsewhere.
It is not known whether the 21 October article reflects a new FIX update or the September scenarios. The sources give no probability for either case, and FIX is a Fitch affiliate, not Fitch’s own sovereign team.
What Comes Next
The next test is the monthly inflation reading from the statistics office INDEC, with the October figure due in November. A new FIX update would show whether the two paths have moved.
The scenarios are projections, not forecasts of who wins. Neither path says the election will go one way or the other.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does FIX forecast for Argentina inflation in 2027?
FIX sees inflation of 19.1% if the ruling party is re-elected calmly. It sees 26.6% if the government arrives at the vote weaker.
Is FIX the same as Fitch Ratings?
FIX SCR is the Argentine affiliate of Fitch Ratings, with its own local analysts. The reports describe the scenarios as FIX’s, and one headline attributes them to Fitch.
What dollar rate does FIX expect at the end of 2027?
FIX expects the official wholesale dollar near 2,071 pesos in the base case and 2,256 pesos in the alternative. The peso traded near 1,527 per US$1 on 22 October.
Why does the vote matter for prices?
FIX expects savers to buy dollars before the vote, which pressures the peso, reserves and interest rates. In the weaker case the government would raise rates to defend the currency.
Do prediction markets show who will win?
Polymarket gives Javier Milei 47.5% and Axel Kicillof 32.5% for the 2027 presidential election on 22 October. These are bets, not polls.
Sources: El Economista, 21 October; El Cronista, 15 September; La Política Online, 18 September; FIX SCR; Polymarket public market data, 22 October; open.er-api.com exchange rate, 22 October (all accessed 22 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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