Rio Times Economy · Cabo Verde
The World Bank expects global food commodity prices, the wholesale prices of grains, oils and other farm goods, to rise 10% in 2026 and a further 7% in 2027, which would leave them about 18% higher over the two years. For Cabo Verde, an Atlantic island nation that relies on imported food, that points to a costlier shopping basket.
The forecast appears in the bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook, its twice-yearly report on raw-material prices, issued in October 2026. The report does not single out Cabo Verde.
Key Facts
- Forecast Food commodity prices up 10% in 2026 and 7% in 2027, about 18% over two years.
- Grains Grain prices are forecast up 14% in 2026 and 9% in 2027.
- Weather risk El Niño, a Pacific warming that disrupts weather, has a high chance of being strongest since 1950.
- Hunger About 779 million people worldwide, 9.5%, faced severe hunger in 2025, the bank counts.
- Cabo Verde Not named in the report; the country buys most of its food abroad.
Higher grain and oil prices can hit import-reliant island economies such as Cabo Verde hard.
What the World Bank Forecasts
The bank says food commodity prices are on track to climb by 10% in 2026, well above its April forecast, and by 7% more in 2027 before easing in 2028. Grain prices are forecast to rise 14% this year, and the group of oils and meals, which covers cooking oils and animal feed, by 17%.
It links the rise to energy prices, disrupted food exports through the Black Sea, where Russia and Ukraine are at war, and weather. It says there is a high probability that the 2026–27 El Niño, a Pacific warming that disturbs weather worldwide, will be the strongest since 1950.
Why Cabo Verde Is Exposed
Cabo Verde buys most of its food abroad. A 2022 country brief by the FAO, the UN food agency, put imports at more than 80% of the country’s food needs.
World price rises can therefore reach Cabo Verdean shops quickly, in our assessment. The islands also hold a presidential vote on Sunday 15 November, covered in our guide to the electoral system.
The Wider Picture
The bank says median food inflation in sub-Saharan Africa was 3.9% in the third quarter of 2026, below its 2010–19 norm of 5.9%. It warns that projected rises in grain and vegetable oil prices are likely to intensify domestic pressure.
Severe food insecurity, meaning people who run out of food and go hungry, fell to about 779 million people worldwide in 2025 (9.5% of the global population) from 803 million in 2024, but the bank says the recent gains could reverse. It adds that surging energy prices strain household budgets.
What It Means for You
Travellers and expats in Cabo Verde may see higher menu and grocery prices in coming months if world prices pass through. Investors in shipping and food importers should note that the forecast is a global average, not a Cabo Verde price.
Cabo Verde’s dealings with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global lender, are covered in our report on Cabo Verde asking the IMF for three more months. More context is in who holds power in Cabo Verde.
What Is Not Known
The report gives no price forecast for Cabo Verde and no estimate of how much of the rise will reach local shops. The bank itself says the central forecast may prove too optimistic if El Niño is exceptional.
It also warns that risks to the forecast tilt towards higher prices, notably if hostilities in the Middle East sharply cut oil exports. Our other Africa stories are on the Africa page.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much will food prices rise in 2026?
The World Bank forecasts a 10% rise in global food commodity prices in 2026. It expects a further 7% rise in 2027.
Is Cabo Verde affected?
The report does not name Cabo Verde, but the country imports most of its food. World price rises can therefore reach its shops, in our assessment.
What is El Niño?
It is a warming of Pacific waters that changes weather around the world. The World Bank says the 2026–27 event has a high chance of being the strongest since 1950.
Sources: World Bank Group, Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2ac43f46629cf90c2ea5b8929a343593-0050012026/original/CMO-October-2026.pdf ; FAO GIEWS Country Brief on Cabo Verde, 16 June 2022. This is news, not investment advice.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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