Copper Fund Edges Up 0.18% as Freeport Gains 0.3% | Copper, Oct 19
Key Facts
- The CPER copper fund rose 0.18% to US$39.57 on Monday 19 October, while Southern Copper gained 0.63% to US$201.78 and Freeport-McMoRan 0.30% to US$69.75.
- Antofagasta sold 10,000 tonnes of Centinela copper concentrate for November delivery at a treatment charge of minus US$310 a tonne, so the buyer is paid to take the ore, a sign that mine supply is scarce.
- China’s economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier, ahead of the 4.4% forecast, and September industrial output rose 5.5% against 5.4% expected.
- Workers at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine in Chile began a strike on 7 October. The mine supplies the concentrate in the auction, so the dispute matters for US buyers of copper.
- Treatment charges are the fees smelters earn for turning ore into metal. A negative charge means miners are being paid to hand the ore over, which only happens when ore is short.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi gives 54% to copper above US$6.62 a pound at 5 pm ET on 20 October and 84% to above US$6.60 (61,738 contracts traded, read at 9:15 pm ET on 19 October). Bets, not forecasts.
Today’s Focus
Copper funds edged higher on Monday 19 October as mine supply stayed tight. The CPER fund, which tracks copper futures, rose 0.18% to US$39.57.
Producers were firmer too, with Southern Copper up 0.63% and Freeport-McMoRan up 0.30%. Both are New York-listed miners that US investors use to follow the metal.
China, the world’s largest copper buyer, reported third-quarter growth of 4.5% from a year earlier, above the 4.4% forecast. September industrial output and retail sales also beat forecasts.
What matters today. Scarce ore and solid Chinese data are holding copper up, although Monday’s gains were small.
01 The session in one read
Copper funds and miners ended the day slightly higher after a week of strong mine-supply headlines. The CPER fund gained 0.18%, Southern Copper 0.63% and Freeport-McMoRan 0.30%.
The main story behind the price is scarce ore rather than booming demand. Smelters have been paying to secure copper concentrate, the raw material they turn into metal.
The evidence points to a supply squeeze rather than a demand boom, because smelters are accepting negative treatment charges to keep their plants fed. Chinese data beat forecasts, which helps, but one day of small gains does not change the picture. The variable to watch is whether further ore auctions also clear at negative charges.
02 The board
The CPER fund settled at US$39.57, up 0.18%. It holds copper futures, so it follows the futures curve rather than the cash price of metal in warehouses.
Southern Copper closed at US$201.78, up 0.63%, and Freeport-McMoRan at US$69.75, up 0.30%. Mining shares also react to company news and the wider stock market, so they only approximate the copper price.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Copper (CPER tracker) | US$39.57 | +0.18% |
| Southern Copper | US$201.78 | +0.63% |
| Freeport-McMoRan | US$69.75 | +0.30% |
Source: RT close, 2026-10-19. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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03 What moved it
Antofagasta, the London-listed Chilean miner, sold 10,000 tonnes of Centinela concentrate for November delivery at a treatment charge of minus US$310 a tonne, Kitco reported on 16 October. A negative charge means the smelter pays the miner for the ore, which happens only when ore is scarce.
A separate tender for 40,000 tonnes from the Los Pelambres mine cleared in the minus US$330 range, with delivery spread across 2027. Together the two results show smelters bidding for supply well into next year.
China’s economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier, against a forecast of 4.4% and 4.3% in the previous quarter. Compared with the previous quarter, the growth rate was 1.2%, against 1.1% expected.
September industrial production rose 5.5% from a year earlier, against a forecast of 5.4%, and retail sales rose 1.1%, against 0.5% expected. Unemployment came in at 5.2%, down from 5.3% in August.
04 The Latin American read
Chile is at the centre of the squeeze, because Centinela and Los Pelambres are both Chilean mines owned by Antofagasta. Workers at Centinela began a strike on 7 October.
How that strike ends is not confirmed in the sources we could check. Peru is another large copper producer in the region, and mining matters to its exports.
05 The names to watch
Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper are the main US-listed producers, and both rose on Monday. Antofagasta is listed in London and owns the two Chilean mines named above.
For US investors the CPER fund is the simplest way to follow copper futures. It trades on a US exchange and is priced in dollars.
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC, priced copper above US$6.62 a pound at 5 pm ET on 20 October at 54%, and above US$6.60 at 84%. The contract has seen 61,738 contracts traded (read at 9:15 pm ET on 19 October).
These prices are bets, not forecasts. They can move quickly on Chinese data and mine news.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
06 The outlook
The next test is whether more ore auctions clear at negative charges, which would confirm that mine supply is tight. A settlement at Centinela would ease part of that worry.
Chinese demand looks steady for now, with September data above forecasts. Further Chinese trade and inventory figures will set the tone for the rest of the week.
07 What to watch
- Ore auctions: Further treatment charges below zero would confirm that mine supply is tight.
- Centinela strike: It began on 7 October. Watch for a deal or any cut in output.
- China data: Trade figures and warehouse stocks will show whether demand keeps pace.
- US$6.62 a pound: Kalshi gives 54% to copper above this level on 20 October.
Background: Copper Fund Edges Up 0.13% as Freeport Slips 0.7%.
Background: Chile Stocks End Flat as Falabella Adds 3.2%.
More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happened to copper on Monday 19 October?
The CPER copper fund rose 0.18% to US$39.57. Southern Copper gained 0.63% and Freeport-McMoRan 0.30%.
What are negative treatment charges?
They are fees that smelters normally earn for turning concentrate into metal. When the charge is negative, the smelter pays the miner, which signals scarce ore.
Did China’s economy beat forecasts?
Yes. China’s economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier, against a forecast of 4.4%.
Is CPER the same as the copper price?
No. CPER holds copper futures contracts, so its price reflects the futures market and not the cash price of metal.
Market data: RT
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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