Brazil Runoff on October 25, Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula

BRAZIL ELECTIONS 2026 · RUNOFF GUIDE

Updated 5 times · Latest: 6 October 2026

The Brazil runoff in 2026 pits Flávio Bolsonaro against President Lula on Sunday, 25 October, after a first round that the conservative challenger won by about 2.2 million votes. For readers in the United States, the outcome will decide the direction of Latin America’s largest economy, its currency and its relations with Washington.

This guide explains where the race stands, how the runoff works, the dates that matter until the inauguration, who the two candidates are and what to watch. We update it until the result; the official count is on our Brazil election results page.

Where the Race Stands After the First Round

Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) finished first on 4 October with 47.03% of valid votes, about 56.1 million votes. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) received 45.16%, about 53.9 million votes. Those are the electoral court’s final figures.

Because neither candidate passed 50% of valid votes, the two leaders meet again three weeks later. The other candidates are out. Augusto Cury of Avante came third with 2.89%, Renan Santos of Missão fourth with 2.24% and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD fifth with 2.18%.

The result surprised Lula’s camp. Lula himself called the result unexpected and said the race had gone into extra time, the business site InfoMoney reported. Abstention reached a record of about 21%, with more than 33 million registered voters staying away, the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo reported.

The polls missed again on 4 October. Of six major pollsters, only Gerp had Flávio ahead in its final survey. Datafolha’s last first-round poll, published on 3 October, gave Lula 45% of valid votes to Flávio’s 42%, while the TSE count showed Flávio ahead by 47.03% to 45.16%, a gap of 1.87 points. On 5 October Nikolas Ferreira, a conservative federal deputy of the Liberal Party (PL) re-elected with more than 3.1 million votes, promised a congressional inquiry into the pollsters next year. It needs 171 of 513 deputies’ signatures, and no request had been reported as filed by 6 October (our report).

The right also did well in Congress. The PL elected 19 senators and will hold the largest group in the Senate, with 28 of 81 seats, according to g1 and Folha.

How Brazil’s Runoff Works

Brazil elects its president in up to two rounds. A candidate who wins more than half of the valid votes in the first round is elected outright. Otherwise, the top two meet in a runoff, and the one with more valid votes wins. Blank and spoiled ballots are not counted as valid votes.

Voting is compulsory for literate citizens aged 18 to 70. It is optional for 16- and 17-year-olds, for people over 70 and for voters who cannot read. Polls open at 8 a.m. and close at 5 p.m. Brasília time across the country.

Brazilians vote on electronic voting machines run by the electoral courts, and results usually arrive on the same evening. Citizens registered abroad vote only for president. In states where no candidate for governor won a majority on 4 October, voters also choose their governor on 25 October.

Voting abroad had its own incident on 4 October. Miami-Dade deputies arrested Danilo Alves Silva, 46, accused of wearing an ICE (US immigration agency) costume at a Brazilian polling site in Miami. He faces multiple Florida charges, including voter intimidation, and has not been convicted (our report).

The Calendar Until October 25 and Beyond

The runoff campaign began on Monday, 5 October, the day after the first round. These are the dates that matter:

• Thursday, 8 October: first runoff polls from PoderData and Datafolha; AtlasIntel follows on 9 October (our report).
• Friday, 9 October: free campaign airtime on television and radio begins for the two candidates.
• Sunday, 11 October: first television debate of the runoff, hosted by Band and the newspaper Estadão at 8 p.m. Brasília time (7 p.m. ET). Record has also set a debate that night at 9 p.m. Brasília time. Allies of Flávio advise him to skip most or all runoff debates, and he has not said whether he will attend (our report).
• Friday, 23 October: last day of free campaign airtime.
• Sunday, 25 October: runoff vote from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time, with the count starting when polls close.
• Tuesday, 5 January 2027: the winner is sworn in for a four-year term.

The inauguration date is new. A 2021 constitutional amendment moved it from 1 January to 5 January, starting with the president elected in 2026.

Who Is Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, has been a senator for the state of Rio de Janeiro since 2019. He is the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, the conservative president from 2019 to 2022. His father cannot run. The electoral court declared him ineligible until 2030 in a 2023 ruling, and in 2025 the Supreme Federal Court convicted him over a plot to overturn the 2022 election, which he denies; that conviction adds a further bar of eight years after he serves his sentence.

Flávio stands for his father’s political base: tougher policing and sentences, lower taxes and a smaller state, and conservative social values. His supporters see him as a calmer, more negotiable version of that agenda. His critics on the left argue that his victory would put the Bolsonaro family back in power and strain relations with the courts.

Foreign allies of the right reacted quickly. Washington weighed in on Monday 5 October. Leaving the White House, US President Donald Trump called Flávio’s first-round lead “a big victory” and predicted “a very close election”, without naming either candidate (our report). Many Brazilian goods have faced an extra 25% US tariff since 22 July 2026, with large exemptions. Argentina’s Argentina’s President Javier Milei and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated him on his first-round lead, g1 reported.

Washington weighed in on Monday 5 October. Leaving the White House, US President Donald Trump called Flávio’s first-round lead “a big victory” and predicted “a very close election”, without naming either candidate (our report). Many Brazilian goods have faced an extra 25% US tariff since 22 July 2026, with large exemptions.

Who Is Lula

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, is a former metalworker and union leader who co-founded the Workers’ Party. He was president from 2003 to 2010 and returned to office in January 2023. He is now seeking a fourth term.

Lula stands for social programmes such as the Bolsa Família cash transfer, state-led investment, income-tax relief for low earners and an active role in climate diplomacy. His supporters credit him with lower poverty and a stable democracy after the 2022 election. His critics on the right blame his government for high public spending, high interest rates and soft policing.

Endorsements and the Race for the Centre

With a gap of about 2.2 million votes, both camps now court the roughly 9 million voters who backed the eliminated candidates and the millions who stayed home. Flávio met São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas of the Republicanos party and other allies on 5 October to plan his runoff strategy, g1 reported. Tarcísio, a former infrastructure minister under Jair Bolsonaro, leads Brazil’s richest state.

By the morning of 6 October, two of the four eliminated candidates had moved. Romeu Zema, a former governor of Minas Gerais who ran for the free-market Novo party, declared his vote for Flávio on Monday 5 October: “I vote against the PT. I vote for Flávio Bolsonaro.” Ronaldo Caiado, a former governor of Goiás who ran for the centre-right PSD, said on Monday that he will declare his support at an event with Flávio in Goiânia on Tuesday 6 October. Together they won 2.45% of valid votes (2.18% and 0.27%). Augusto Cury and Renan Santos said they would back neither, and the PSD itself stays neutral (our report). Lula’s campaign must win back centrist voters, many of whom rejected his party in the first round, while Flávio must reassure moderates who worry about his father’s legacy.

The bigger bloc to watch is the Centrão, a shifting set of pragmatic centre-right parties that trade support for budget posts and influence. The Progressistas (PP), led by Senator Ciro Nogueira, signalled on 5 October that it leans towards Flávio and decides on Tuesday 6 October with its federation partner União Brasil. With 87 Chamber seats between them and 121 for Flávio’s PL, that is 208 of 513, short of the 257 majority (our report).

The elected Chamber of Deputies favours the right on paper. Poder360 classifies 276 of the 513 seats as right-wing, 124 as left and 113 as centre. That is above the 257 needed for a majority but short of the 308 needed to amend the constitution (our report).

Lula opened his runoff campaign on Monday 5 October by criticising the Supreme Court. At a meeting in Brasília he said his camp carries “the promiscuity” that was established in the court after accusations involving justices, and he said fixed terms for justices should be assessed. The press links the accusations to the Banco Master case; they are under investigation and the justices are presumed innocent (our report). Folha de S.Paulo reported on 5 October that Justice Kassio Nunes Marques, who also presides over the electoral court (TSE), wants Jair Bolsonaro’s request to reopen his coup conviction judged after the runoff. No date is set, and reports differ on whether he would first grant an interim order (our report).

Seven states also vote for governor on 25 October. In Rio de Janeiro, whether a runoff happens depends on the electoral court: if it voids the votes of barred candidate Anthony Garotinho (3.17% of valid votes), Douglas Ruas of the PL would win outright with about 50.9% (our report).

What Markets Are Pricing

Investors read the first round as a shift toward business-friendly policies. On 5 October the US dollar fell more than 4% and traded below R$5, according to g1. The Ibovespa, São Paulo’s benchmark stock index, closed at a record 206,911.89 points, up 7.70%, while the central bank’s final PTAX reference rate was 4.9859 reais per dollar (US$1 = R$4.9859). The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), a US-listed fund, rose about 12.5% in New York (our report). The move reflects bets that a conservative Congress, and possibly a conservative president, would cut spending and lower interest rates over time.

On the central bank’s PTAX fixing, the dollar fell 4.6%, from R$5.2238 on Friday 2 October to R$4.9859 on Monday 5 October; our expat explainer shows what that does to a US$2,000 monthly budget in Brazil. The repricing is a bet, not a result. A Lula win on 25 October could reverse part of it, while a Flávio win would put the focus on his economic team and his first budget. The international echo was immediate as well: US President Donald Trump cited Brazil’s same-day count to criticise slow vote counting in the United States, g1 reported.

What Prediction Markets Say

Prediction markets let traders buy contracts that pay US$1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 80 cents implies an 80% chance in the market’s view. Two of them list Brazil’s presidential race: Polymarket and Kalshi, which the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates in the United States.

After the first round, traders made Flávio Bolsonaro the clear favourite. On 5 October, Polymarket priced his chance of winning at about 85% at midday and 83.2% by 5:05 p.m. ET; Kalshi was at about 83% earlier in the day. On Tuesday 6 October at about 2 p.m. ET, Polymarket had him at 84.3% and Lula at 15.5%, with about US$174 million traded on the market. The card below shows the latest prices and updates every 20 minutes.

Markets are not polls. They show where money is placed, they can swing on a single debate or endorsement, and a favourite at 85% still loses about one time in seven.

How the odds moved, what else traders are pricing for Brazil and why prediction markets matter: read What Prediction Markets Say About Brazil’s Runoff.

What It Means for You

For US investors, the real, Brazilian stocks and US-listed Brazilian companies are likely to stay volatile until the runoff result. For companies doing business in Brazil, the new Congress matters as much as the president, because no Brazilian president governs without a coalition.

For travellers and expats, daily life continues as normal during the campaign. On voting day, expect closed schools used as polling stations, restrictions on alcohol sales in some states and busy roads in the evening.

What Is Not Known

It is not yet known how many of the roughly 2.9 million voters who backed Caiado and Zema will follow them, whether Novo and the PSD as parties formally take a side, how the PP and União Brasil decide on 6 October, or how the voters of Cury and Santos will split. It is not known whether Flávio will attend any runoff debate. It is not known whether the first runoff polls on 8 October will land closer to the result than the final first-round surveys, or whether Ferreira’s promised inquiry into pollsters will ever be filed. Nor is it known whether the market rally of 5 October will hold over three weeks of campaigning.

What to Watch

Watch for endorsements in the coming days, the first runoff polls on 8 October (and whether they avoid the first-round miss), the free campaign airtime from 9 October and whether Flávio attends the first television debate on 11 October. Watch the real and Brazilian stocks as a running verdict on the race. On the evening of 25 October, follow the official count on our results page; in 2022 the runoff winner was clear within about three hours of polls closing.

Related reading: Brazil Election Explained After Flávio and Lula Advance; Brazil Election: Betting Markets Favour Flávio Bolsonaro, Polls Show a Tie; Brazil presidential polls diverge sharply 17 days before the vote; more from Brazil Elections 2026.

See also: our gilmar mendes brazil supreme court stf guide.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the Brazil runoff in 2026?

The runoff is on Sunday, 25 October 2026. Polls are open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time, which is 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. US Eastern Time.

What were the first-round results in Brazil?

Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes and President Lula 45.16%, according to the electoral court. Because neither passed 50%, they meet in a runoff.

Who is Flávio Bolsonaro?

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is a conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. He runs for the Liberal Party (PL).

How does Brazil’s runoff work?

The two leading candidates of the first round face each other, and the one with more valid votes wins. Blank and spoiled ballots are not counted.

When does Brazil’s next president take office?

The winner is sworn in on 5 January 2027. A 2021 constitutional amendment moved the inauguration from 1 January.

How did markets react to the first round?

On 5 October the US dollar fell more than 4% and traded below R$5, according to g1, as investors priced a more business-friendly Congress.

What do prediction markets say about Brazil’s runoff?

On 5 October, Polymarket priced Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at about 85% and Kalshi at about 83%. Prices are traders’ bets, not polls, and they move quickly.

Sources: TSE official results, g1, Folha de S.Paulo, TSE registry of election polls (6 October 2026), Federal Register (USTR notice on Brazil, 20 July 2026), InfoMoney, Estadão and Band debate, Constitutional Amendment 111/2021. As of 6 October 2026, 7 p.m. Lisbon (2 p.m. ET).