Trump Calls Flávio Bolsonaro’s 47% Vote a Big Victory
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS 2026
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, with 158.7 million registered voters, picks its next president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula.
- —What happened Leaving the White House on Monday 5 October, Donald Trump called the conservative’s first-round result “a big victory” and predicted “a very close election”.
- —The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, a gap of about 2.2 million votes, the electoral court’s final count shows.
- —Why it matters Since 22 July 2026 many Brazilian goods entering the United States have paid an extra 25% tariff after a US trade investigation.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 85% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (6 October, 12:48 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 85% and Kalshi at 86% (Lula: 16% and 15%), as of 6 October, 1:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Still open Trump named neither candidate, and it is unclear whether he will campaign openly for Flávio before the vote.
US President Donald Trump on Monday 5 October called Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round lead in Brazil’s presidential election “a big victory”. The conservative senator faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
The remark matters to Americans because trade ties are strained, with many Brazilian goods paying an extra 25% US tariff since July. Flávio, a son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is a politician Trump has hosted in the Oval Office and praised in public.
What Trump Said at the White House
Trump took questions from reporters on Monday afternoon before boarding Marine One, the presidential helicopter. He left the White House at 3:33 p.m. ET, bound for a rally in Grand Island, Nebraska.
One reporter asked how he read the Brazilian results, noting that Trump had said he was following the race closely. Trump answered: “I think it’s going to be a very close election.”
A few minutes later another reporter asked: “What did you make of Bolsonaro’s victory down in Brazil?”
Trump replied: “Well, it’s a big victory — close, but very, very big victory. Amazing actually.”
He then added a question of his own: “The initial stage, right? Initial stage?”
Roll Call’s Factba.se, which logs the president’s schedule and transcribes his remarks, published the full exchange. Trump named neither candidate in his answers.
How Close Brazil’s First Round Was
Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which runs the country’s elections, has counted all 499,248 voting sections. Flávio Bolsonaro received 56,104,503 votes, or 47.03% of valid votes, against 53,879,538, or 45.16%, for Lula.
That is a gap of 2,224,965 votes, or 1.87 percentage points. The constitution requires an absolute majority of valid votes, so the top two meet again on the last Sunday of October.
The other ten candidates shared about 9.3 million votes, or 7.81%. Turnout was 78.92%, which means 33.5 million registered voters stayed away.
Flávio, 45, has been a senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019. He runs for the conservative Liberal Party (PL), whose national president is Valdemar Costa Neto.
Lula governed from 2003 to 2010 and has been president again since January 2023. His left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) is chaired by Edinho Silva.
Two defeated conservative rivals, former state governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, have since backed Flávio for the runoff.
Why Washington’s View Matters for Trade
Trump’s words land on a strained relationship. On 15 July 2025, at Trump’s direction, the US Trade Representative, the office that runs US trade policy, opened an investigation into Brazil.
It covered digital trade and electronic payments, tariffs, anti-corruption enforcement, intellectual property, ethanol and illegal deforestation. The outcome, published in the Federal Register on 20 July 2026, is a 25% tariff on imports from Brazil.
The duty has applied since 12:01 a.m. ET on 22 July 2026, with exemptions. Civil aircraft and parts are spared, as are goods already hit by separate US national-security tariffs.
According to the Spanish news agency EFE, as carried by El Día of the Dominican Republic, Lula’s government has denounced US tariffs and visa measures. It calls them an attempt to interfere in the election in Flávio’s favour.
Trump has praised Flávio before. On 2 June 2026 he wrote on Truth Social, his social network, that it was “very nice having Flávio Bolsonaro in the Oval Office”.
In the same post he called him “a smart young man who loves his Country, Brazil, very much!”
What Prediction Markets Say
Bettors on Polymarket gave Flávio Bolsonaro an 84.5% chance of winning the runoff at 12:48 p.m. ET on Tuesday 6 October. Lula stood at 15.5%.
About US$174 million has been bet on the main market, with US$1.9 million traded in the previous 24 hours. Flávio’s price rose 0.8 points over that day, a small move.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 84.5% · Lula 15.5% (US$174 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 86% · Lula 15%
As of 6 October, 1:20 pm ET (18:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For US importers, the runoff could shape the future of the 25% tariff. The Federal Register notice of 20 July 2026 lists the exemptions by tariff code, so check each product line.
For investors holding Brazilian stocks or bonds, the 25 October vote is the next big political test. See how the real reacted to the first round.
For travellers, the US Embassy in Brazil issued a security alert suspending consular services on 1 October. On 4 October it announced that consular services were open again.
What Is Not Known
Trump did not explain what he meant by “the initial stage”. Whether he will campaign openly for Flávio before 25 October is unknown.
How, or whether, Lula’s government will answer the remark formally is open. So is whether a new government would reopen talks on the 25% tariff.
Nor is it clear how the 9.3 million people who backed other candidates will vote. The 33.5 million who stayed home could also decide the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly did Trump say about Brazil’s election?
Asked about “Bolsonaro’s victory” at the White House on Monday 5 October, Trump said: “Well, it’s a big victory — close, but very, very big victory. Amazing actually.” He also said Brazil “will be a very close election”.
Who won the first round of Brazil’s presidential election?
Nobody won outright. Flávio Bolsonaro led with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%, so the two meet in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
When does Brazil’s next president take office?
On 5 January 2027. A 2021 constitutional amendment moved the start of the presidential term from 1 January, beginning with the 2026 election.
Does the US have tariffs on Brazilian goods?
Yes. Since 22 July 2026 a 25% tariff has applied to imports from Brazil after a US trade investigation. Civil aircraft, steel, aluminium and a long list of other goods are exempt.
Sources: Roll Call Factba.se, transcript: Press Gaggle, Donald Trump Speaks to Reporters Before Marine One Departure, 5 October 2026; Roll Call Factba.se, the president’s public schedule, 5 October 2026; Superior Electoral Court (TSE), official presidential result, first round, 5 October 2026; Federal Register, USTR Notice of Action on Brazil (2026-14542), 20 July 2026; Constitution of Brazil, Article 77 (Planalto), accessed 6 October 2026; Constitutional Amendment 111 (Planalto), 28 September 2021; TSE, registered political parties, accessed 6 October 2026; Federal Senate, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro profile, accessed 6 October 2026; Trump’s Truth archive, Truth Social post of 2 June 2026, 2 June 2026; US Embassy and Consulates in Brazil, alerts, 1 and 4 October 2026; El Día (EFE), 6 October 2026; Jornal do Brasil, 5 October 2026; Metrópoles, 5 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief