Brazil’s Caiado, Zema Back Flávio for 25 October Runoff
ELECTIONS · BRAZIL
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, holds a presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
- —Why it matters Flávio led the first round by 2,224,965 votes. Caiado and Zema together won about 2.9 million, more than that lead (Valor, CBN).
- —Why now On Monday morning neither man had endorsed anyone. By Monday night both had moved, as the three-week runoff campaign began.
- —What happened Zema declared his vote for Flávio on Monday 5 October. Caiado’s office said he will declare his support at an event in Goiânia on Tuesday 6 October.
- —The numbers First round: Flávio 47.03%, Lula 45.16%. Caiado 2.18% (2,605,148 votes), Zema 0.27% (326,488 votes).
- —What it means for you Donald Trump called Flávio’s result a big victory. The runoff decides Brazil’s line on Washington, trade and China from January 2027.
- —Still open How many Caiado and Zema voters follow them. Caiado’s PSD party stays neutral, and the Novo party has not yet ruled formally.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 84% chance of winning the presidency and Lula 16.5% (6 October, 2:37 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 84% and Kalshi at 84% (Lula: 17% and 17%), as of 6 October, 3:40 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Two defeated conservative candidates have swung behind the Flávio Bolsonaro runoff bid in Brazil, a day after both declined to pick a side. Romeu Zema declared his vote on Monday 5 October, and Ronaldo Caiado is due to follow in Goiânia on Tuesday.
For Washington and US investors, the shift matters because the 25 October runoff is close. Together the two men won more votes than the 2.2 million that separated Flávio from President Lula.
The moves follow our report on Monday, Brazil’s 4 Defeated Candidates Endorse No One in Runoff. That picture changed within hours.
Who Moved and What They Said
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. He runs for the conservative Liberal Party (PL), led by Valdemar Costa Neto.
Lula runs for re-election for the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), led by Edinho Silva. Flávio took 47.03% of valid votes on Sunday 4 October and Lula 45.16%.
Romeu Zema is a businessman and former governor of Minas Gerais, Brazil’s second most populous state. He ran for Novo, a small pro-market party, and finished sixth with 326,488 votes, according to CBN.
On Monday evening he posted a video on Instagram. “I will not stay silent or sit on the fence at this important moment. I vote against the PT. I vote for Flávio Bolsonaro,” he said, as quoted by CBN and InfoMoney.
CBN reported that Novo had not yet taken an official position but was expected to do so by Tuesday.
Ronaldo Caiado governed Goiás, a farm-belt state in central Brazil, until he left office to run for president. He ran for the PSD, a large centre-right party chaired by Gilberto Kassab. He came fifth with 2,605,148 votes, or 2.18%, according to Valor Econômico.
Caiado’s office said on Monday that he will receive Flávio on Tuesday and declare his support for the runoff, InfoMoney reported. O Globo said Flávio had called him that morning to ask for it.
“Flávio will be in Goiás tomorrow, when I will make my statement. The rest I will say tomorrow,” Caiado told O Globo.
Tarcísio Joins the Goiânia Event
According to Flávio’s campaign schedule, cited by Metrópoles, the meeting is set for 2 p.m. local time (1 p.m. ET) on Tuesday. It takes place at the campaign office of Governor Daniel Vilela in Goiânia’s Setor Bueno district.
Vilela, of the centrist MDB, succeeded Caiado in the governor’s palace and his group won Sunday’s state race, O Globo reported. He is also expected to back Flávio.
São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas will attend, Metrópoles reported. He was re-elected on Sunday for Republicanos, a conservative party that has not yet formally joined Flávio’s coalition.
O Globo said Tarcísio met Flávio in Brasília on Monday and promised to campaign actively and travel with him. CBN reported that he wants his party to join the Flávio Bolsonaro runoff coalition, with talks running until Thursday 8 October.
The trip is Flávio’s first public campaign stop since the first round. It fits a wider push to court regional leaders, described in Brazil’s Centrão Tilts to Flávio After 4 October Vote.
Trump Hails a Big Victory
US President Donald Trump weighed in on Monday. Leaving the White House, he told reporters that Flávio’s first-round result was a big victory, close but incredible, according to Folha de S.Paulo and Valor.
He also predicted a very tight runoff. On Friday, asked whether he backed Flávio, he did not answer, O Globo reported.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio was more guarded. He said everyone had expected a runoff and that Washington would see how things unfold, Valor reported.
Valor noted that Republican members of Congress welcomed Flávio’s lead, seeing a chance of closer alignment between Brazil and the Trump administration.
What It Means for You
For US investors, the endorsements add to a run of good news for the Flávio Bolsonaro runoff campaign. Brazilian assets and ADRs have been trading on runoff expectations, so any shift in the race can move them quickly.
The stabiliser is the arithmetic. Endorsements do not transfer votes automatically, and turnout in Lula’s strongholds can offset small gains elsewhere.
For US policy, a Flávio win would likely bring a government friendlier to the Trump administration. A Lula win would keep Brazil’s more independent line on trade and China.
Travellers and residents should expect larger rallies in state capitals over the next three weeks, including Goiânia on Tuesday afternoon.
What Is Not Known
Caiado’s exact words are not yet known; his statement is due on Tuesday afternoon. Grupo Record’s news portal reported that he and Flávio have not discussed any role for him in a future government.
The PSD declared itself neutral on Sunday night and left its state branches free to choose, CBN reported. How many PSD leaders follow Caiado is unclear.
It is also not known whether Novo will formally back Flávio, or whether Republicanos will join his coalition. Augusto Cury and Renan Santos, the third and fourth placed, still back neither finalist.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, where about US$174 million has been traded on the “Brazil Presidential Election” market, Flávio stood at 84% and Lula at 16.5% at 2:37 a.m. ET on Tuesday 6 October.
Flávio’s price rose about two points over the previous day. These are bets, not polls. More context is in What Prediction Markets Say About Brazil’s Runoff.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 83.9% · Lula 16.5% (US$174 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% · Lula 17%
As of 6 October, 3:40 am ET (08:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Who has endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro for Brazil’s runoff?
Romeu Zema of Novo declared his vote for Flávio on Monday 5 October. Ronaldo Caiado’s office said he will declare his support in Goiânia on Tuesday 6 October.
What did Donald Trump say about Flávio Bolsonaro?
On Monday 5 October he told reporters that Flávio’s first-round result was a big victory and predicted a very close runoff. He has not formally endorsed him.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
Sunday 25 October 2026, between Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) and President Lula of the Workers’ Party (PT).
Sources: InfoMoney; CBN; Metrópoles; O Globo (Goiânia); Valor Econômico (Caiado); Valor Econômico (Trump); Folha de S.Paulo; O Globo (Trump); Grupo Record.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief