Brazil Brazil Elections 2026

Brazil’s Flávio Camp Weighs Skipping 11 October Debate

By Contributing Reporter · October 5, 2026 · 7 min read

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro speaks to reporters surrounded by microphones and phones at Brazil’s Senate in Brasília — Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative Liberal Party senator who leads Brazil’s presidential race, talks to reporters at the Senate in Brasília on 30 April 2026. (Photo: Andressa Anholete/Agência Senado, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

RUNOFF · BRAZIL

Runoff · Sunday, 25 October

Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next

First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.

Read the runoff guide →

Key Facts

—The country Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and democracy. It elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula.
—Why it matters The two front-runners never met in a televised debate before the first round. Runoff debates are the only live test of their plans before voters decide.
—Why now Flávio led Sunday’s first round with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16% (Superior Electoral Court, final count, 5 October).
—What happened On Monday 5 October, O Globo and Record’s portal reported that allies are advising Flávio to skip most or all runoff debates.
—What it means for you Investors holding Brazilian shares or ADRs may get fewer on-air commitments on spending, taxes and ties with Washington before the vote.
—Still open Whether Flávio attends Band’s debate on Sunday 11 October at 8 p.m. Brasília time (7 p.m. ET). His campaign is split, and O Globo said no decision was expected on Monday.
—Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 82.5% chance of winning the presidency (5 October, 3:08 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 83% and Kalshi at 83% (Lula: 18% and 17%), as of 5 October, 3:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.

Allies of Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator leading Brazil’s presidential race, urge him to skip most runoff debates against President Lula. For US investors in Latin America’s largest economy, that could mean fewer live answers on spending, taxes and Washington before 25 October.

O Globo reported the advice on Monday, and the news portal of the Record TV network confirmed it with its own sources. Lula’s camp says the president will attend, setting up a three-week fight over the runoff debates themselves.

What Flávio’s Allies Advise

Flávio is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and a senator for Rio de Janeiro. He runs for the Liberal Party (PL), Brazil’s main conservative party, led by Valdemar Costa Neto.

According to O Globo, people around him want the senator to attend only the meetings they consider most relevant. The trend is that a TV Globo debate would be the only one he joins. Some allies want him to attend none.

Record’s portal said the campaign has been steering him away from the runoff debates altogether. Allies told its Brasília desk that Flávio wanted to debate in the first round and that “Lula fled”.

Now that he leads, those allies see no reason to risk a face-to-face clash, the portal reported. O Globo said part of the camp believes Sunday’s result lets him be selective over the remaining three weeks.

Bar chart of Brazil's first-round presidential result on 4 October 2026: Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03%, Lula 45.16%, all others 7.81% of valid votes — Flávio Bolsonaro finished 1.87 points ahead of Lula in the first round, the margin his allies cite for limiting runoff debates. (Source: Superior Electoral Court final count, 5 October 2026)

The lead is narrow. Flávio won 56,104,503 votes and Lula 53,879,538, a gap of 1.87 points, by the electoral court’s final count.

How the First Round Went Without Debates

Neither front-runner faced the other on television before 4 October. Both skipped the broadcaster Band’s first debate in August. Flávio dismissed it, saying “whoever is there is not my opponent”.

Before the last scheduled debate, on TV Globo on 1 October, Lula declined and Flávio first planned to attend anyway. His team wanted to direct questions at Lula’s empty podium and turn the moments into social media clips, O Globo reported.

Estela Aranha, a Superior Electoral Court judge, then barred Globo from showing the empty podium or allowing questions to the absent Lula. Flávio withdrew, calling the ruling “censorship”.

Supreme Court Justice Gilmar Mendes later ordered the inclusion of Renan Santos of the Missão party, and Globo cancelled the debate. The full sequence is in Brazil’s Globo Debate Cancelled After Lula Boycott.

Lula’s Camp Says It Will Show Up

Lula seeks a fourth term for the Workers’ Party (PT), Brazil’s main left-wing party, led by Edinho Silva. He skipped every first-round debate, judging he would face attacks from several right-wing rivals with little time to reply.

Sidônio Palmeira, the minister who runs the presidency’s communications office, said on Sunday that Lula has “no problem” with debates. In a runoff, he said in Salvador, Lula “will go to the debates and unmask this opponent”, according to Estadão.

Some Lula allies go further. They told O Globo columnist Malu Gaspar the president must “leave arrogance aside” and attend every runoff debate, since he trails.

The Debate Calendar

Grupo Bandeirantes, the São Paulo broadcaster known as Band, has set the first runoff debate for Sunday 11 October at 8 p.m. Brasília time, 7 p.m. ET. It is organised with the newspaper Estadão and a pool including TV Cultura, TV Gazeta and Jovem Pan.

Record has also scheduled a presidential debate for 11 October at 9 p.m. Brasília time, 8 p.m. ET, the network said on its news portal. Record had cancelled its first-round debate after both front-runners pulled out.

Flávio’s campaign also plans more trips to Brazil’s Northeast, O Globo said. It is courting allies such as São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas of the conservative Republicanos, re-elected on Sunday.

On television, the campaign plans what insiders call “Flavinho light”, a softer image built on living costs and security, O Globo reported.

What It Means for You

For US investors in Petrobras, Vale or Itaú ADRs, debates are where candidates commit on budgets, state companies and trade. Fewer debates leave more of the runoff to campaign ads and polls.

History favours the leader: no candidate who topped Brazil’s first round since 1989 has lost the runoff, Folha de S.Paulo noted. A strong debate could still shift a race this close, so a single confirmed clash would matter.

For Americans travelling to Brazil, the dispute has no practical effect. Voting takes place on Sunday 25 October.

What Is Not Known

Flávio himself has not said publicly whether he will attend the Band, Record or any other runoff debate. The advice was reported by O Globo and Record’s portal from unnamed allies. O Globo columnist Lauro Jardim reported on Monday afternoon that the campaign was divided, with everyone repeating “we are evaluating”.

TV Globo has not announced a runoff debate. The regional outlet NSC Total reported that it plans one for Friday 23 October. The rules and format of Band’s 11 October debate have not been published.

The first runoff polls are still to come, so the effect of any absence on voters cannot yet be measured.

More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket bets give Flávio an 82.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 17.5%, as of 3:08 p.m. ET on 5 October. Flávio’s price rose about 18 points in a day after the first round.

The market has about US$173 million traded since it opened, roughly US$7.2 million of it in the last 24 hours.

Prediction markets · who wins the runoff

Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.

Polymarket

Flávio Bolsonaro 82.7% · Lula 17.5% (US$173 million traded)

Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)

Flávio Bolsonaro 83% · Lula 17%

As of 5 October, 3:20 pm ET (20:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro debate Lula before the runoff?

He has not said. O Globo and Record’s news portal reported on 5 October that allies advise him to skip most or all runoff debates. A TV Globo debate is the likeliest exception.

When is the first runoff debate in Brazil?

Band has scheduled it for Sunday 11 October at 8 p.m. Brasília time, 7 p.m. ET, with Estadão. Record has also set a debate for that night at 9 p.m. Brasília time.