Brazil’s Rio May Skip 25 October Governor Runoff
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS 2026
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, holds runoffs on Sunday 25 October for president and for governors who missed 50% of valid votes.
- —What happened Former Rio governor Anthony Garotinho dropped his appeal on Monday 5 October; on Tuesday, electoral prosecutors asked the court to accept that step.
- —The numbers Without Garotinho’s 274,411 annulled votes, Douglas Ruas of Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party has 50.88% of valid votes, enough to win outright.
- —Who decides Justice Floriano de Azevedo Marques of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) can accept the withdrawal alone or refer it to the full court.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Douglas Ruas a 95.2% chance of becoming Rio de Janeiro governor (6 October, 4:54 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 84% and Kalshi at 85% (Lula: 16% and 15%), as of 6 October, 5:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Still open No date is set for the decision, and the left-wing PSOL party has asked the court to keep Garotinho’s votes in the count.
The Rio governor runoff set for Sunday 25 October may not take place. On Tuesday, Brazil’s electoral prosecutors backed former Rio de Janeiro governor Anthony Garotinho’s request to drop his court appeal, Agência Brasil and g1 reported.
If the court accepts, Douglas Ruas of Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) wins Rio, Brazil’s third-most-populous state, in the first round. That would hand a key state to the party of Trump ally Bolsonaro, after Donald Trump praised Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round result.
Why Garotinho’s Votes Decide the Race
A first-round win needs more than half of valid votes. Blank and spoiled ballots do not count, Agência Brasil noted.
The electoral court’s official results give Ruas 4,271,199 votes and Eduardo Paes 3,706,984. Garotinho’s 274,411 votes are listed as annulled, pending a final ruling.
With those votes left in the total, Ruas has 49.27% and would face a governor runoff. With them removed, his share rises to 50.88% of the 8,394,627 valid votes.
Rio’s regional electoral court rejected Garotinho’s candidacy in September under the Clean Slate Law, which bars politicians with certain convictions for eight years. It cited a 2018 conviction for administrative misconduct.
On Friday 2 October, TSE Justice Floriano de Azevedo Marques ordered Garotinho’s votes recorded as annulled pending a final ruling. His name stayed on the voting machines because the regional ruling came after the system closed.
On Monday afternoon, Garotinho said he was giving up the appeal freely and irrevocably, citing the result at the ballot box, Agência Brasil reported. His vote share of 3.17% left him third.
What the Prosecutors Asked the Court
On Monday, Justice Floriano gave the electoral prosecutor’s office two days to give its view, Agência Brasil reported. The office answered on Tuesday 6 October.
Vice Prosecutor-General for Elections Alexandre Espinosa asked the court to accept the withdrawal, g1 reported. As a fallback, he asked it to reject Garotinho’s appeal, which would also keep the votes annulled.
Espinosa noted that the TSE normally bars dropping such appeals after an election, because the voters’ will is at stake. He argued this case is an exception, since a ruling on the merits would lead to the same result.
Justice Floriano can now accept the withdrawal alone or take it to the full court. If it is accepted, the votes are retotalled and Rio’s regional court can proclaim Ruas elected, Agência Brasil reported.
The left-wing Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL), whose candidate came fourth, has asked the TSE to keep Garotinho’s votes in the count. Its Rio branch filed the request on the night of 5 October, Metrópoles reported.
Who the Candidates Are
Douglas Ruas, 37, is a state lawmaker and speaker of Rio’s state assembly, Gazeta do Povo reported. He runs for the Liberal Party, the conservative party of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Eduardo Paes, a former mayor of the city of Rio de Janeiro, runs for the centrist Social Democratic Party (PSD), led by Gilberto Kassab. His coalition includes President Lula’s left-wing Workers’ Party (PT).
On Sunday night, Paes said a governor runoff would show what the fight is about, Gazeta do Povo reported. “It will not be Flávio Bolsonaro and it will not be Lula who governs Rio de Janeiro,” he said.
Ruas asked the TSE for a quick and final decision. “We trust in the courts,” he said, according to the same report.
Garotinho, of the Republicanos party, was Rio’s governor from 1999 to 2002. His wife, Rosinha Garotinho, succeeded him from 2003 to 2007, Agência Brasil noted.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, bets give Ruas a 95.2% chance of becoming Rio’s governor (6 October, 4:54 p.m. ET), down 1.1 points in 24 hours. About US$711,000 has been bet on that market.
In the national race, the same platform gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 84.2% chance of beating Lula on 25 October (6 October, 4:54 p.m. ET).
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 84.4% · Lula 15.5% (US$174 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 85% · Lula 15%
As of 6 October, 5:40 pm ET (22:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
Rio’s governor runs the state police and state finances in the home of Petrobras, the state-controlled oil company. A first-round win would end Rio’s own race three weeks early.
Travellers face no change for now. The US State Department rates Brazil at Level 2, “exercise increased caution”, in its travel advisory.
Rio voters should still plan for 25 October, because the presidential runoff takes place in every state. A 5 October overview of the seven governor runoffs explains the wider map.
What Is Not Known
No date is set for Justice Floriano’s decision. He has not said whether he will rule alone or refer the case to the full court.
It is also unclear how the court will treat the PSOL request. Until it rules, the official tally still lists a governor runoff between Ruas and Paes.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Background: Flávio and Lula Head to Brazil Runoff, 99.9% Counted.
Background: Brazil Tax Reform 2026 Replaces Five Taxes With Two VATs.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Rio de Janeiro hold a governor runoff on 25 October?
It depends on the Superior Electoral Court. If Garotinho’s votes are annulled for good, Douglas Ruas has 50.88% of valid votes and wins outright, and the Rio governor runoff is cancelled.
Why do Garotinho’s votes matter if he came third?
Brazil counts only valid votes. His 274,411 votes are annulled because his candidacy was barred, which shrinks the total and lifts Ruas above 50%.
What did the prosecutors say?
On Tuesday 6 October, Vice Prosecutor-General for Elections Alexandre Espinosa asked the court to accept Garotinho’s withdrawal. Failing that, he asked it to reject the appeal, which also keeps the votes annulled.
Who is Douglas Ruas?
He is a 37-year-old state lawmaker and speaker of Rio’s state assembly, from Jair Bolsonaro’s conservative Liberal Party. He won 4,271,199 votes in the first round on Sunday 4 October.
Does this change the presidential runoff?
No. Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula still meet on 25 October, and Rio’s 12.8 million voters take part either way.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), official results, Rio de Janeiro governor, first round, 4 October 2026; Agência Brasil: MPE dá parecer favorável à desistência de recurso de Garotinho no TSE, 6 October 2026; g1: MPE defende que TSE aceite desistência de recurso de Garotinho, 6 October 2026; Metrópoles: PGE se manifesta pela homologação da desistência do recurso de Garotinho, 6 October 2026; Metrópoles: PSOL recorre ao TSE e pede que votos de Garotinho sejam considerados, 6 October 2026; Agência Brasil: TSE quer parecer do MP antes de decisão sobre recurso de Garotinho, 5 October 2026; Agência Brasil: Garotinho desiste de recurso e eleição do RJ pode acabar em 1º turno, 5 October 2026; Gazeta do Povo: Paes sai do sonho de vitória no 1º turno ao risco de ficar fora do 2º, 5 October 2026; IBGE, 2022 census population by state, 2022; US Department of State: Brazil Travel Advisory, 31 August 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief