Brazil’s Lula Blames Supreme Court on 5 October
BRAZIL ELECTION · BRAZIL
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, picks its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —Why it matters Lula trails after the first round. He is now running against a Supreme Court to which he appointed several justices.
- —Why now On Monday 5 October Lula held his first campaign meeting since finishing second on Sunday, with 45.16% of valid votes to Flávio’s 47.03%.
- —What happened In Brasília on 5 October, Lula said his camp carries “the promiscuity” established in the court, and promised more radio and more selfies.
- —What it means for you Both camps now criticise Brazil’s top court, a theme that touches investors and US ties alike.
- —Still open Whether Lula turns his words into a concrete court reform plan, and whether attacking the court wins back centrist voters.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 83.7% chance of winning the presidency and Lula 16.5% (6 October, 2:36 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 84% and Kalshi at 85% (Lula: 17% and 16%), as of 6 October, 3:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil turned on his own country’s Supreme Court on Monday 5 October. Speaking to allies in Brasília, he said his campaign was carrying “on its back” the court’s “promiscuity”. For foreign investors and Washington, the message is clear. Lula blames Supreme Court scandals for his first-round defeat, and both camps now criticise the court.
Lula, 80, leads the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) and is seeking a fourth term. He finished second on Sunday 4 October, behind Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the conservative Liberal Party (PL). Flávio is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
The final count gave Flávio 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, according to Superior Electoral Court (TSE) figures cited by Poder360. The two meet in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
What Lula Said About the Court
The remarks came at a meeting with ministers, senators, party leaders and allied candidates at a hotel in central Brasília, Estadão reported. It was his first campaign event since Sunday’s vote.
“We are carrying on our backs something very serious, which is the promiscuity that was established in the Brazilian Supreme Court after these accusations,” Lula said, according to Folha de S.Paulo and UOL. He added: “That is why I have been talking about reform of the judiciary.”
The “accusations” refer to suspected links between some justices and Daniel Vorcaro, the former banker behind Banco Master, Estadão and UOL reported. These are allegations under investigation, and the justices are presumed innocent.
Lula is not cited in the Banco Master case, Folha noted. But PT members believe his closeness to several justices during his term made voters link him to the scandal.
“When you reach a situation in which the Supreme Court is under the distrust of society, something is very serious,” Lula said. He argued that justices are not above the law. He also called for debate on how justices are chosen and on fixed terms for them, Veja and CNN Brasil reported.
Lula then tried to take the anti-establishment label from his rival. Flávio “is the face of the system,” he said. “There is only one anti-system candidate, which is us.”
A Campaign Reset With 20 Days to Go
Lula admitted the first round had hurt. “Do you think I was not disappointed? Every election I am disappointed, because I want to win them all in the first round,” he told allies, Estadão Conteúdo reported via Jovem Pan.
He received 53,879,538 votes, or 3,379,966 fewer than in the first round of 2022, according to the TSE count cited by Estadão Conteúdo. Flávio received 56,104,503.
Lula still said he saw “no economic, social, political reason” why he could not win, even on public security, UOL reported.
The practical changes are modest but telling. “It is 20 days, but it is better. Let us sleep less, let us work more,” he said, according to Poder360. “I did very little radio in this campaign, I will have to do more radio. I will have to take more selfies, I will have to talk more.”
Allies also urged the campaign to chase voters who stayed home, Poder360 reported. Abstention reached 21.08%, or 33,469,244 voters, the highest first-round rate since 1998. Lula plans new street marches in Ceará, Piauí, Bahia and São Paulo.
He also changed course on debates. After skipping every first-round debate, he said: “Now it is important to have debate on television, because now it is head to head. Now it is one against one.” Flávio’s camp is weighing whether to attend, as we reported in Brazil’s Flávio Camp Weighs Skipping 11 October Debate.
Lula conceded the pool of voters is smaller than in past runoffs. “Today the so-called neutrals are fewer,” he said, according to Folha. The defeated candidates first stayed neutral, as covered in Brazil’s 4 Defeated Candidates Endorse No One in Runoff. That has started to shift: Romeu Zema, who came sixth, backed Flávio on Monday, CBN reported.
What It Means for You
Now that Lula blames Supreme Court misconduct for his slide, the court is a campaign issue on both sides. That matters for US investors holding Brazilian shares or ADRs. A reform of how justices are picked would need Congress, and the outcome of 25 October will shape that.
Lula had already floated changes before the vote, as covered in Brazil’s Lula Says Presidents Should Not Pick Supreme Court Justices Alone. Monday’s tone was much sharper.
Brazil’s Supreme Court has also been a point of friction with Washington since the 2025 trial of Jair Bolsonaro. A president who now distances himself from the court changes that conversation, whoever wins.
For visitors and residents, nothing changes in daily life. Brazil’s courts and institutions keep working, and the free election broadcasts on radio and TV resume on Friday 9 October under Brazil’s electoral law.
What Is Not Known
Lula gave no draft of a judicial reform, no timetable and no names. It is not clear whether the PT would back fixed terms for justices in Congress.
Supreme Court president Edson Fachin said on Monday that the court “is greater than everything and everyone, and it will remain”. He spoke at a Constitution anniversary event and did not mention the election, Estadão reported. The Banco Master investigations are still open.
It is also unknown whether attacking the court will win centrist votes. It could instead alienate allies who backed the court against Jair Bolsonaro.
What Prediction Markets Say
Bettors moved further towards Flávio after the first round. On Polymarket, the winner market gave Flávio Bolsonaro an 83.7% chance and Lula 16.5% at 2:36 a.m. ET on Tuesday 6 October.
Lula’s price fell about 2 points in 24 hours. The Brazil election event has drawn about US$174 million in bets, including about US$18.3 million on Lula and US$17.3 million on Flávio. These are bets, not polls.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 83.7% · Lula 16.5% (US$174 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 85% · Lula 16%
As of 6 October, 3:20 am ET (08:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What did Lula say about Brazil’s Supreme Court?
On Monday 5 October he said his campaign carries “the promiscuity” established in the court after accusations involving justices, and he called for judicial reform.
Why is Lula attacking the court now?
He finished second in the first round, and Lula blames Supreme Court scandals for part of the damage. PT members believe voters linked him to the Banco Master scandal because of his closeness to some justices.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Sunday 25 October 2026, between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Free election broadcasts on radio and TV run from 9 to 23 October.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo; UOL; CNN Brasil; Poder360 (radio and selfies); Poder360 (campaign meeting); Jovem Pan / Estadão Conteúdo; Estadão; Veja; CBN; Estadão (Fachin).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief