Washington’s Tougher Venezuela Enforcement Puts A Bid Back Under Oil
Key Points
- Brent and WTI rose into Monday after reports of a U.S. interception near Venezuela tightened the risk around physical flows.
- The bounce is real on short-term charts, but daily signals still warn the market is rebuilding inside a broader downtrend.
- Soft demand confidence, heavy product inventories, and cautious ETF flows keep rallies limited unless supply disruptions become concrete.
Oil began the week firmer after a weekend jolt from the Caribbean: Reuters reported that the U.S. intercepted an oil tanker near Venezuela, and that the Coast Guard was pursuing another vessel.
Traders treated the episode as a rare headline with “flow” implications, not just rhetoric, and that distinction mattered after months when geopolitical tension failed to lift prices for long.
Around 07:43 UTC, Brent traded near $60.695 on the spot feed shown in TradingView, while WTI stood near $57.065. Reuters’ early Asia snapshot put Brent futures around $60.93 and WTI around $56.98.
The Brent–WTI gap stayed near the $4 area, reflecting a market still comfortable with U.S. supply resilience even as global risks flicker. The past week showed why prices remain jumpy.
On Dec. 16, both contracts sank hard, with Brent settling at $58.92 and WTI at $55.27, before stabilizing and clawing back. By Dec. 22, Investing.com settlement snapshots showed Brent at $61.17 and WTI at $57.20, modestly above Dec. 15 levels.
Reuters also noted China accelerated stockpiling into the weakness, a supportive signal that still reads as price-sensitive buying.
Fundamentals are mixed. The EIA reported U.S. crude inventories down 1.3 million barrels to 424.4 million for the week ending Dec. 12, while gasoline rose 4.8 million and distillates climbed 1.7 million.
OPEC+ maintained sizable cuts, around 3.24 million barrels per day in Reuters reporting, and paused output increases into early 2026, helping defend the floor.
Positioning looked tactical. USO saw a roughly $68 million outflow on Dec. 17, even as five-day net flows were mildly positive at about $36 million. Technicals echo that caution.
On 4-hour charts, Brent’s RSI near 60.5 and a positive MACD histogram around +0.185 point to building upside momentum, mirrored by WTI’s RSI near 57.7 and histogram around +0.186. On daily charts, both remain subdued, with Brent RSI near 45.1 and WTI near 46.1, and MACD still negative.
Key levels are clear. WTI support sits near $54.98, with resistance around $57.80 and a descending trendline above. Brent support is near $58.72, with resistance around $61.50 and heavy overhead supply beyond.
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