Copper Hits A Year-End Squeeze As Supply Signals Trump Macro Doubts
Key Points
- Copper is holding near the top of its recent range as concentrate economics flash a fresh supply warning for 2026.
- The rally is being shaped by where metal is sitting, not just how much exists, with inventories pulled toward the US and availability thinning elsewhere.
- Charts stay constructive, but momentum is firm enough to make pullbacks likely in thin year-end trading.
Copper is ending the year with a familiar mood: steady prices on the screen, and real tension underneath. In early trading on December 22, copper was around 5.5489 per lb on the Capital.com CFD feed, down 0.10% on the latest 4-hour bar.
That translates to roughly $12,233 per metric ton. The LME’s day-delayed three-month close was $11,881.50 per ton, up 0.88%. An intraday LME tracker showed $11,955.5, with a session high near $11,996 and reported volume around 5,945.
In Shanghai, the most-active SHFE contract traded near 93,980 yuan per ton, about $13,348, up 1.36%. The overnight catalyst was not a speech or a policy promise.
It was a benchmark reality check in concentrates. Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed to a zero treatment and processing fee for 2026 concentrate. That kind of pricing is a loud message about feed scarcity.
The past week reinforced the same theme. On December 12, copper pushed toward $12,000 as supply tightness and “AI plus power grid” demand narratives pulled in buyers.
By December 15, short covering and contract timing added fuel, while a dealer warned that year-end could remain choppy and volatile.
On December 16, prices dipped after US data, with thin liquidity amplifying swings. By December 19, copper was back on course for a weekly gain, even as one bank cautioned that “the air is getting thinner” near $12,000.
Inventory mechanics have mattered as much as fundamentals. Comex stocks were reported at a record 405,782 tons, while availability outside the US looked tighter.
Mercuria was cited cancelling more than 40,000 tons in LME Asia locations, adding to scarcity optics. A physical copper fund in Canada was also highlighted holding nearly 10,000 tons, removing metal from circulation.
Positioning and flows leaned supportive. Comex open interest was 250,821, up 3.25% week on week. A widely followed copper ETF proxy showed strongly positive creation metrics, including 8.94% over one month, 41.81% over three months, and 87.62% year to date.
Technically, the market is strong but not euphoric. On the 4-hour view, RSI is 64.96 and MACD is rising. Resistance sits around 5.56 to 5.58, with support near 5.51 to 5.52 and deeper support around 5.45.
The daily chart shows a long base and a December breakout, with RSI at 64.80 and MACD positive. China’s benchmark lending rates were unchanged.
Copper still pushed higher. In this market, metal in the wrong place, and shortages in the right inputs, are doing more work than politics.
Verification: No details were invented; all figures and events come from published market data and reports.
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