New TB Vaccines Could Save Seven Million Lives, on a Model Nobody Has Published
Health · Africa
Key Facts
- —The claim New tuberculosis vaccines could save 7.3 million lives between 2030 and 2050.
- —Who made it Gavi, the alliance that buys vaccines for poorer countries, in a statement on 14 September.
- —What it rests on Preliminary modelling by a London research school. No paper, no authors, no method published.
- —Why a new vaccine is needed The only existing one dates from the 1920s and does not protect adults, who spread the disease.
- —What is closest One candidate is in a trial of about 20,000 people across five countries, two of them African.
- —The money problem Research has never exceeded about US$145 million a year against an assessed need near US$1.25 billion.
Tuberculosis kills more people worldwide than any other infection, and the only vaccine against it is a century old. On Monday the global vaccine alliance put a number on what replacing it would be worth, and the number deserves both attention and caution.
New TB vaccines could save 7.3 million lives between 2030 and 2050. That figure was published on Monday by Gavi, the alliance that buys vaccines for lower-income countries.
What Was Actually Published
Gavi’s statement attributes the projection to preliminary modelling by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. It is not a journal paper.
There is no publication, no named authors and no methods annexe to examine. The correct description is modelling commissioned by an organisation that buys vaccines.
The assumptions Gavi does disclose are specific. The model assumes a vaccine with 50 percent efficacy against disease regardless of prior exposure, with immunity waning over ten years.
Delivery is assumed through routine adolescent immunisation plus catch-up campaigns for high-risk groups, in lower and middle-income countries. Change any of those and the number moves.
Two further figures accompany it. Gavi projects up to US$135 billion in economic benefits by 2050 and average demand of 86 million courses a year.
Sania Nishtar, who runs Gavi, framed it as a supply question. New TB vaccines could be the next blockbuster immunisation tool, she said, but only with sufficient, predictable and affordable supply.
Why a New Vaccine Is Needed at All
The only licensed tuberculosis vaccine is BCG, which is more than a century old. It protects infants and young children against the severe forms of the disease.
It does not adequately protect adolescents and adults. Those groups account for roughly 90 percent of new cases and do most of the transmitting.
That is the gap the current candidates are aimed at. Eighteen are in clinical trials, four in the first phase, eight in the second and six in the third.
The Candidate Everyone Is Watching
The furthest advanced is known as M72, an antigen developed by GSK combined with an adjuvant the company also supplies. The trial sponsor is the Gates Medical Research Institute rather than GSK.
About 20,000 participants aged 15 to 44 are enrolled across 54 sites. The five countries are Indonesia, Kenya, Malawi, South Africa and Zambia.
The trial began in early 2024 and reached full enrolment in April 2025, eleven months ahead of schedule. Serum Institute of India is contracted to manufacture if it succeeds.
There is no fixed date for results. The trial runs until 110 pulmonary tuberculosis cases have accrued, with follow-up of up to four years.
That is why anyone quoting a specific year is guessing. Before the end of the decade is as precise as the design allows.
What the Disease Actually Does
Tuberculosis made 10.7 million people ill worldwide in 2024 and killed 1.23 million. That makes it the deadliest infectious disease on earth, ahead of malaria and HIV.
WHO’s African region recorded 2.62 million cases, a quarter of the global total, and 423,000 deaths. That is about 34 percent of tuberculosis deaths worldwide.
Within Africa the ranking is different from the global one. Malaria killed roughly 580,000 people in the same region in 2024, more than tuberculosis did.
So the phrase world’s deadliest infection is accurate globally and misleading for Africa alone. Africa’s particular burden is that it carries about 72 percent of tuberculosis deaths among people living with HIV.
Gavi has not broken its projection down by region. Its countries account for about 77 percent of global tuberculosis deaths, but that portfolio includes India, Indonesia and Pakistan.
Africa’s share of the 7.3 million therefore cannot be stated. Anyone giving one has derived it themselves.
The Money Is the Constraint
Research on TB vaccines has never exceeded about US$145 million a year. The assessed need is at least US$1.25 billion, a shortfall of roughly eight times.
Wider tuberculosis research runs at US$1.2 billion against a US$5 billion target. Services funding stands at US$5.9 billion against US$22 billion, a gap of about US$16 billion.
That gap widened sharply last year. The United States supplied about half of international tuberculosis donor funding from 2015 to 2024.
Its main aid agency ceased to exist during 2025. Nothing has replaced that share.
The Global Fund removed US$1.4 billion from its 2024 to 2026 grant cycle, 11 percent of the original allocation. Uganda recorded a 14 percent drop in tuberculosis case notifications in the first half of 2025.
A fall in notifications is not a fall in disease. It usually means fewer people are being found.
That is the context for Monday’s number. A projection of 7.3 million lives is an argument for money as much as a forecast.
Reading it that way is not dismissing it. The disease and the funding gap are both real.
More: Africa coverage, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does the seven million figure come from?
From a statement published by Gavi, the vaccine alliance, on 14 September 2026, citing preliminary modelling by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. No paper, authors or methodology have been published, so it should be described as commissioned modelling rather than a study.
Why is a new tuberculosis vaccine needed?
The only licensed vaccine, BCG, is more than a century old. It protects young children against severe forms of the disease but does not adequately protect adolescents and adults, who make up around 90 percent of new cases and do most of the transmitting.
How close is a new vaccine?
The furthest advanced candidate, M72, is in a third-phase trial of about 20,000 people aged 15 to 44 across 54 sites in Indonesia, Kenya, Malawi, South Africa and Zambia. The trial is event-driven rather than date-driven, running until 110 pulmonary tuberculosis cases accrue, so no results year has been set.
Is tuberculosis Africa’s deadliest disease?
It is the world’s deadliest infectious disease, killing 1.23 million people globally in 2024. Within WHO’s African region it killed 423,000 people, fewer than malaria, which killed roughly 580,000 there in the same year.
Sources: Gavi on the projected impact of new tuberculosis vaccines, World Health Organization, Global Tuberculosis Report 2025, Gates Medical Research Institute on the M72 trial, Working Group on New TB Vaccines on why BCG is insufficient, World Health Organization on the impact of 2025 funding cuts
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
Read More from The Rio Times