Key Facts
- CSN’s New York shares sank 8.11% to US$1.02, the worst fall on the board, after its mining arm CSN Mineração cut its 2026 output guidance.
- CSN fell 9.85% in São Paulo to R$5.40 (about US$1.04), while CSN Mineração lost 5.74% to R$4.76 (about US$0.92).
- Gerdau’s US-traded shares fell 2.93% to US$4.64, and its São Paulo shares lost 3.55% to R$24.20 (about US$4.65).
- Ternium slipped 1.87% to US$53.45 as Mexico’s talks with Washington on the 50% US steel duty produced no deal.
- The SLX steel ETF dropped 1.51% to US$102.51, its third straight daily loss.
- Brazil’s mills run at 60–65% of capacity, steel industry leaders said as the Aço Brasil congress opened in São Paulo on Tuesday.
Today’s Focus
Latin American steel shares fell on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, and one company set the tone. CSN’s New York-listed shares sank 8.11% to US$1.02 after its mining arm, CSN Mineração, cut its 2026 production guidance and raised its cost forecast.
The SLX steel-producers ETF lost 1.51% to US$102.51. Gerdau’s US-traded shares fell 2.93% to US$4.64 and Ternium slipped 1.87% to US$53.45.
The Brazilian falls were not a currency story. The real firmed 0.45% to 5.2019 per US dollar, yet Gerdau’s São Paulo shares still lost 3.55%.
In Mexico, Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard was back in Washington, but there was no readout and the 50% US duty on Mexican steel stayed in force.
What matters today. Company news from CSN’s iron ore arm, not a demand shock, drove Tuesday’s steel losses, while the unresolved US-Mexico tariff talks kept Ternium on the back foot.
01 The session in one read
Latin American steel equities lost ground on Tuesday, 29 September 2026. The SLX steel-producers ETF fell 1.51% to US$102.51, its third straight daily loss.
The clearest pain was at CSN. CSN Mineração cut its 2026 production and third-party purchase guidance to 39–41 million tonnes, from 45–47 million tonnes, and raised its C1 cash-cost forecast to US$25–26 a tonne, from US$22–23.50. It blamed tough market conditions and higher freight costs. CSN’s New York shares crashed 8.11% to US$1.02.
Mining, not steel demand, knocked CSN, because iron ore is one of the group’s main profit engines. The rest of the sector slipped on a familiar mix: no tariff relief for Mexico and an industry in Brazil complaining of idle capacity. Watch whether the US-Mexico talks produce any text on the 50% steel duty in October; that would matter more for Ternium than any single demand report.
02 The board
Ternium, the Mexican flat-steel producer, fell 1.87% to US$53.45. It was its eighth straight daily loss, as talks with Washington over the 50% Section 232 steel duty produced no result.
Gerdau’s US-traded shares slipped 2.93% to US$4.64. The long-steel maker’s São Paulo shares fell 3.55% to R$24.20 (about US$4.65), and holding company Metalúrgica Gerdau lost 3.39% to R$10.82 (about US$2.08). Usiminas held up better, down 0.71% to R$6.95 (about US$1.34).
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Steel (SLX ETF) | US$102.51 | -1.51% |
| Gerdau | US$4.64 | -2.93% |
| CSN (ADR) | US$1.02 | -8.11% |
| Ternium | US$53.45 | -1.87% |
Source: RT close, 2026-09-29. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 172,457.76 | +0.66% | +9.73% | 171,324.31 | 172,715 | 171,132 | — |
| IPSA | 10,660.94 | +0.34% | — | 10,625.19 | 10,699 | 10,624 | — |
| IPC MEX | 71,204.98 | -0.84% | +13.87% | 71,811.20 | 71,981 | 71,044 | 149,701,210 |
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | -10.97% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,452.46 | -0.02% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.67 | +0.45% | +7.09% | 5.64 | 5.67 | 5.63 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 6.25 | +0.93% | +1.93% | 6.19 | 6.26 | 6.21 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.52 | -0.42% | +1.29% | 18.60 | 18.63 | 18.51 | — |
| USD/CLP | 994.16 | -0.13% | +6.95% | 995.48 | 1,002 | 993.78 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,302 | +0.70% | -10.86% | 3,279 | 3,331 | 3,302 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.40 | -0.16% | +0.77% | 3.41 | 3.41 | 3.39 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,544 | -0.11% | +9.58% | 1,545 | 1,548 | 1,543 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.59 | +2.33% | +3.41% | 39.67 | 40.59 | 40.52 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,196 | +2.33% | -10.79% | 6,055 | 6,196 | 6,185 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.59 | -0.37% | +72.02% | 11.63 | 11.60 | 11.55 | — |
| USD/DOP | 60.59 | +1.85% | -5.40% | 59.49 | 60.61 | 60.27 | — |
| USD/CRC | 442.74 | -0.10% | -9.70% | 443.16 | 445.25 | 442.74 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.64 | +2.06% | +2.02% | 7.49 | 7.65 | 7.64 | — |
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03 What moved it
The main driver was CSN Mineração’s guidance cut. The company said it would temporarily reduce output of lower-grade iron ore at its dry-processing plant in the Pires complex in Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais, because of weak market conditions and higher freight costs. CSN’s São Paulo shares fell 9.85% to R$5.40 (about US$1.04).
Trade policy was the second weight. Mexico still faces a 50% US duty on its steel and wants it reduced. Ebrard travelled to Washington this week to press for lower tariffs, President Claudia Sheinbaum said, but no deal or new rate was announced.
China remains the backdrop. Profits in China’s ferrous smelting and rolling industry fell 62.4% in January to August, the National Bureau of Statistics said on 27 September. Weak home profits give Chinese mills a reason to export more cheap steel.
04 Tuesday’s data, one by one
Monday’s edition promised five steel markers for Tuesday. Here is what happened.
US-Mexico tariff text: none. Ebrard was in Washington, but neither side published a statement or tariff text by the close. The fourth formal negotiating round is now due in October, with the date to be set after the G20 trade ministers’ meeting. Ternium fell 1.87%.
G20 trade ministerial: under way. The meeting hosted by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Milwaukee runs from 29 September to 1 October, with the ministers’ sessions on Wednesday and Thursday. No steel statement came on Tuesday.
Brazil’s steel industry: idle mills. The Aço Brasil congress opened in São Paulo. Board chair André Gerdau Johannpeter said mills run at 60–65% of capacity, well short of the 80% needed to sustain investment. Crude steel output fell 4% in August from July to 2.7 million tonnes, while imports rose 3.2% to 395,000 tonnes. Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin said Brazil now charges 25% on imports of 39 steel product codes and has 17 anti-dumping measures on 14 products. Gerdau still fell 3.55%.
Brazil jobs: strong. Unemployment held at 5.3% in the three months to August, the statistics office IBGE said, in line with forecasts. The Caged formal-jobs registry showed 165,827 jobs created in August, well above the roughly 95,700 expected. The data did not lift steel shares.
Brazil IGP-M (September): just below forecast. The general market price index rose 1.57% in the month, against a 1.60% forecast and a 0.22% fall in August, the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) said. Over 12 months it is up 3.34%. The index tracks wholesale prices, including metals, but did not move steel shares.
US data: weaker consumers. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 in September, well below the 89.2 forecast; August was revised to 88.6. US job openings slipped to 7.1 million in August, the Labor Department said, below the 7.23 million expected. Softer US demand signals added to the risk-off tone in steel.
China’s September PMIs: back above 50. The official manufacturing PMI, released at 1.30 am UTC on Wednesday, rose to 50.1 from 49.8, in line with forecasts. The non-manufacturing index rose to 50.2, beating the 49.3 forecast. The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1, above the 51.6 forecast. The data came after Tuesday’s close.
Chinese imports into Brazil and Brazilian construction data. No new figures were published on Tuesday.
05 The Latin American read
Brazil and Mexico face different problems. Brazil is fighting cheap imports with tariffs, quotas and anti-dumping duties, but its industry says mills are still running well below capacity.
Mexico applies tariffs of up to 50% on 1,463 product lines from countries without a trade agreement, including steel. Its bigger issue is the 50% US duty on its own steel exports. The peso weakened 0.30% to 18.0465 per US dollar on Tuesday.
06 The names to watch
CSN is now a mining story as much as a steel one. The next test is whether freight costs ease enough for CSN Mineração to restore lower-grade output.
Gerdau is the bellwether for construction because rebar and structural steel track housing and infrastructure. Its São Paulo shares fell even as the real firmed, so Tuesday’s drop was not a currency effect.
Ternium is the purest play on the US-Mexico talks. Any legal text cutting the 50% duty would matter directly for its export margins.
07 The outlook
The next catalysts are the G20 trade ministerial in Milwaukee and the date for the October round of US-Mexico talks. A tariff cut for Mexican steel would lift Ternium quickly.
China’s return to above-50 factory readings is mildly helpful for steel demand. A real cut in Chinese steel output would do more for Latin American producers than any local data point.
08 What to watch
- G20 trade ministers’ sessions, Milwaukee (30 Sept–1 Oct): any US signal on Section 232 metals duties, and the date for the fourth US-Mexico round.
- Brazil fiscal data, 8.30 am BRT (11.30 UTC): the central bank’s August public-sector budget balance and debt ratios; producer prices follow at 9 am BRT.
- US data: ADP private payrolls for September at 12.15 UTC (forecast 70,000) and the Chicago PMI at 13.45 UTC (forecast 51.2).
- CSN and CSN Mineração: any broker downgrades or company comment after the guidance cut.
- Chile industrial data, 9 am BRT: August industrial and manufacturing output, a read on regional factory demand for steel.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did CSN fall so sharply on Tuesday?
Its mining arm, CSN Mineração, cut its 2026 production guidance to 39–41 million tonnes from 45–47 million and raised its cash-cost forecast, citing weak markets and higher freight costs. CSN’s New York shares fell 8.11% to US$1.02.
What is the Section 232 steel tariff?
It is a US national-security duty on steel imports. Mexican steel pays 50%, and Mexico wants it reduced. No deal was announced on Tuesday.
How are Brazil’s steel mills doing?
Industry leaders said mills run at 60–65% of capacity. Crude steel output fell 4% in August from July to 2.7 million tonnes, while imports rose 3.2%.
Does Brazil protect its steelmakers?
Yes. Brazil charges 25% on imports of 39 steel product codes and has 17 anti-dumping measures on 14 products, Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin said on Tuesday.
Source: RT live market data, close of Tuesday 29 September 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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